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Topic: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation

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FearlessF

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #84 on: August 14, 2026, 03:55:20 PM »
damn
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #85 on: August 14, 2026, 04:28:54 PM »


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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #86 on: August 14, 2026, 04:45:51 PM »
I don't know whether to be depressed that even in a completely made up and imaginary season simulation, my team still sucks...

...or happy that somehow this completely made up and imaginary season simulation found two wins that I have no reason to hope will actually happen?
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #87 on: August 14, 2026, 04:58:52 PM »
November 22 Poll
  • OREGON (11-0) 1
  • INDIANA (11-0) 2
  • Georgia (11-0) 3
  • Texas Tech (11-0) 4
  • Miami (10-1) 5
  • Houston (10-1) 6
  • PENN STATE (9-2) 8
  • Texas (9-2) 9
  • Notre Dame (9-2) 10
  • Arizona State (9-2) 11
  • BYU (9-2) 12
  • Florida (9-2) 14
  • Texas A&M (9-2) 7
  • Georgia Tech (9-2) 15
  • USC (8-3) 16
  • Tennessee (8-3) 17
  • IOWA (8-3) 18
  • Utah (8-3) 24
  • Virginia (9-2) 22
  • Boise State (10-1) 23
  • Virginia Tech (8-3) 13
  • SMU (8-3) 19
  • South Florida (9-2) -
  • Air Force (9-2) -
  • UTSA (9-2) -
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #88 on: August 14, 2026, 05:14:54 PM »
This simulation has Ohio State and Michigan both unranked and tied at 4-4 in the league and 7-7 overall heading into The Game.  

It has been a long time since there has been an Ohio State/Michigan game with no ranked teams involved.  FWIW even in this simulation the winner would likely move into the rankings at 5-4/8-4.  

This simulation illustrates what has me concerned about Ohio State's schedule.  Per this simulation Ohio State heads into The Game at 4-4/7-4 with losses:

  • vs #1 Oregon
  • AT #2 Indiana
  • AT #15 USC
  • AT #17 Iowa
None of those are bad losses and they also have a road win over #8 Texas.  My concern is that a borderline top-10 team could end up 8-4 or even 7-5 with this schedule.  
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utee94

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #89 on: August 14, 2026, 05:17:57 PM »
Well heck, try being the team that lost to your 7-4 suckbutt team in week 2.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2026, 05:30:01 PM by utee94 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #90 on: August 14, 2026, 05:21:56 PM »
Kinda funny that UGA has only one win against a ranked team.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #91 on: August 14, 2026, 05:24:37 PM »
The CG in the B1G would already be clinched as Indiana and Oregon are two games ahead of #3 Penn State.  However there are some convoluted scenarios in the other P4 leagues:

SEC:
Georgia is 9-0 and their conference slate is complete so they are locked in but the other spot . . .

Texas has control of their own destiny at 7-1 but if they lose to aTm then the Longhorns and Aggies would both finish 7-2.  Florida, like Georgia, has already completed their conference slate and the Gators are 7-2 so if aTm beats Texas then the Gators would join the two Texas teams in a tie for the second SECCG slot.  Additionally, Tennessee is 6-2 so there is a potential 4-way tie for the second spot in the SECCG.  

In the ACC Miami and SMU are each 7-1 so they control their own destiny but if either or both of them were to lose and finish 7-2 they could be caught by either GaTech or Virginia or both so there is a potential 4-way tie for the two spots in the ACCCG.  

In the B12 Texas Tech is 8-0 so they control their own destiny and may have already clinched depending on tiebreakers.  Behind them Houston and ASU are tied at 7-1 with BYU a game behind them at 6-2 so all four of those teams are in the mix.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #92 on: August 14, 2026, 05:27:42 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 14, 2026, 05:17:57 PM
Well heck, trying being the team that lost to your 7-4 suckbutt team in week 2.
In the 12-team playoff era, who cares?  

In the old (ya know, a few years ago) days the loss to an unranked team in week-2 would be a big deal because Texas would have no chance of making a BCSCG and only a faint chance of making a 4-team CFP but in the 12-team era, Texas would have a plausible chance to make it even at 9-3 with a loss to aTm and would obviously be in with a win over their rivals.  
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utee94

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #93 on: August 14, 2026, 05:32:37 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2026, 05:27:42 PM
In the 12-team playoff era, who cares? 

In the old (ya know, a few years ago) days the loss to an unranked team in week-2 would be a big deal because Texas would have no chance of making a BCSCG and only a faint chance of making a 4-team CFP but in the 12-team era, Texas would have a plausible chance to make it even at 9-3 with a loss to aTm and would obviously be in with a win over their rivals. 
We already know 3-loss Texas with a loss to an unranked team doesn't get in, even with wins over 2 tournament teams and 3 in the top 15 selection committee rankings.

Now, the upcoming 24-team tourney, is a whole different matter.  (hurl)
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #94 on: August 14, 2026, 05:35:19 PM »
I'd prefer playing Texas in the SEC CG ....
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utee94

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #95 on: August 14, 2026, 05:35:51 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 14, 2026, 05:35:19 PM
I'd prefer playing Texas in the SEC CG ....
No thanks.  No Georgia ever, thanks in advance.
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #96 on: August 15, 2026, 04:22:15 PM »
WEEK THIRTEEN
Tuesday, November 24
Kent State d. Eastern Michigan
Miami(Ohio) d. Western Michigan

THANKSGIVING
#4 Texas Tech d. TCU
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #97 on: August 15, 2026, 04:36:09 PM »
WEEK THIRTEEN
Friday, November 27
#8 Texas d. #13 Texas A&M
#12 Florida d. Florida State
#17 IOWA d. NEBRASKA
#18 Utah d. West Virginia
Tulane d. #23 South Florida

Buffalo d. Akron
Florida Atlantic d. East Carolina
Memphis d. Temple
Ole Miss d. Mississippi State
San Jose State d. ND State
South Alabama d. Appalachian State
Toledo d. Ohio
WISCONSIN d. MINNESOTA
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