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Topic: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation

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FearlessF

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #56 on: August 11, 2026, 03:12:44 PM »


obviously, this would be HUGE!
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2026, 03:17:47 PM »
November 1 Poll
  • OREGON (8-0) 1
  • INDIANA (9-0) 2
  • Georgia (8-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (8-0) 4
  • Texas Tech (8-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (7-1) 8
  • Miami (7-1) 11
  • Houston (7-1) 12
  • USC (7-2) 14
  • Virginia Tech (7-1) 16
  • PENN STATE (6-2) 19
  • Texas (6-2) 20
  • Tennessee (6-2) 21
  • IOWA (6-2) 6
  • Arizona State (6-2) 24
  • BYU (6-2) 7
  • NEBRASKA (6-2) -
  • WASHINGTON (6-2) 9
  • Clemson (6-2) 10
  • TCU (6-2) 22
  • Utah (6-2) 23
  • Florida (6-2) 18
  • Georgia Tech (6-2) 17
  • LSU (5-2) -
  • WISCONSIN (5-3) -
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Wildcat4E

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #58 on: August 11, 2026, 03:20:30 PM »
Congrats, FF.

But this was my favorite so far, #18 consecutively

#25 Kansas State d. Kansas
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #59 on: August 11, 2026, 03:54:20 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 11, 2026, 02:55:03 PM
Halloween feels like a perfect Saturday for a BLOOD WEEK!!!
The following week could be as bad or worse:  https://www.elevenwarriors.com/college-football/2026/05/162525/November-7-might-break-college-football
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #60 on: August 11, 2026, 04:06:07 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 11, 2026, 03:17:47 PM
November 1 Poll
  • OREGON (8-0) 1
  • INDIANA (9-0) 2
  • Georgia (8-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (8-0) 4
  • Texas Tech (8-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (7-1) 8
  • Miami (7-1) 11
  • Houston (7-1) 12
  • USC (7-2) 14
  • Virginia Tech (7-1) 16
  • PENN STATE (6-2) 19
  • Texas (6-2) 20
  • Tennessee (6-2) 21
  • IOWA (6-2) 6
  • Arizona State (6-2) 24
  • BYU (6-2) 7
  • NEBRASKA (6-2) -
  • WASHINGTON (6-2) 9
  • Clemson (6-2) 10
  • TCU (6-2) 22
  • Utah (6-2) 23
  • Florida (6-2) 18
  • Georgia Tech (6-2) 17
  • LSU (5-2) -
  • WISCONSIN (5-3) -
I note Ohio State's absence.  That would be a big deal.  The Buckeyes haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 since September 20, 2020 and that was only because they were ineligible due to the B1G not restarting football yet.  They haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 poll that they were eligible for since the final poll of 2011.  In that stretch (2012-2025) appearances:
  • 230 Alabama 100%
  • 228 Ohio State 99.1% (only out of the 9/13/2020 and 9/20/2020 polls due to covid inactivation)
  • 203 Georgia 88.3%
  • 202 Oklahoma 87.8%
  • 192 Notre Dame 83.5%
  • 191 Clemson 83%
  • 182 Oregon 79.1%
  • 171 LSU 74.3%
  • 169 Michigan 73.5%
  • 138 aTm 60%

Just curious, what is your assumption/criteria for excluding the Buckeyes.  Per your projections and your projected poll the Buckeyes would have three losses but those are:
  • AT #2 Indiana
  • AT #9 USC
  • AT #14 Iowa
They would also have a road win over #12 Texas.  Four road games against top-14 teams is brutal and frankly going 1-3 in those isn't all that bad.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #61 on: August 11, 2026, 04:26:07 PM »
While I was looking up the information for my previous post I noticed that Alabama was out as well.  If Alabama and Ohio State are BOTH unranked in the 11/1/2026 Poll as projected here by @ELA it will be a very unusual poll to include neither of those two.  FWIW the last AP CFB Poll to include neither Ohio State nor Alabama was the 10/31/2004 Poll.  USC was #1.  

Anyway, I know that this projection will make @FearlessF happy.  At present Alabama's steak stands at 295 straight weeks in the poll.  The Tide have been ranked in every poll since being #24 in the 2008 Preseason poll.  This is the second longest streak of all time and by FAR the longest active streak.  Nebraska has the all-time longest streak of 348 straight appearances from 1981-2002 and the Tide are currently 53 weeks from catching the Cornhuskers.  

Per the projections:

  • Alabama is #15 in the preseason poll thus extending their streak to 296:  52 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama beats ECU in week-1 and moves up to #14 thus extending their streak to 297:  51 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama loses to Kentucky in week-2 and drops to #22 thus extending their streak to 298:  50 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama beats FSU in week-3 and remains at #22 thus extending their streak to 299:  49 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama beats USCe in week-4 and moves up to #19 thus extending their streak to 300:  48 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama beats MissSt in week-5 and moves up to #17 thus extending their streak to 301:  47 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama loses to #4 UGA in week-6 and drops to #23 thus extending their streak to 302:  46 behind Nebraska.  
  • Alabama loses to Tennessee in week-7 and drops out of the poll thus ending their streak at 302, 46 behind Nebraska and 91 ahead of the third longest steak (FSU had 211 from 1989-2001).  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #62 on: August 11, 2026, 05:17:02 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 11, 2026, 03:17:47 PM
November 1 Poll
  • OREGON (8-0) 1
  • INDIANA (9-0) 2
  • Georgia (8-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (8-0) 4
  • Texas Tech (8-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (7-1) 8
  • Miami (7-1) 11
  • Houston (7-1) 12
  • USC (7-2) 14
  • Virginia Tech (7-1) 16
  • PENN STATE (6-2) 19
  • Texas (6-2) 20
  • Tennessee (6-2) 21
  • IOWA (6-2) 6
  • Arizona State (6-2) 24
  • BYU (6-2) 7
  • NEBRASKA (6-2) -
  • WASHINGTON (6-2) 9
  • Clemson (6-2) 10
  • TCU (6-2) 22
  • Utah (6-2) 23
  • Florida (6-2) 18
  • Georgia Tech (6-2) 17
  • LSU (5-2) -
  • WISCONSIN (5-3) -
Upon further review, this would be even more unusual.  The four most frequently ranked teams (#4 is actually a tie for 4th/5th) are:
  • 1,016 Ohio State 80.2% of 1,267 total polls. 
  • 943 Michigan 74.4%
  • 922 Oklahoma 72.8%
  • 907 Alabama 71.6%
Note that NONE of those four are included above.  Ohio State and Michigan are both projected to be 5-3/2-3 so they'd be borderline as would Oklahoma 5-3/3-2 but Alabama 4-4/2-4 wouldn't be all that close. 

The last time there was an AP CFB Poll in which none of those four teams were ranked was October 30, 1967.  Bama had been ranked earlier in the season and would get back in.  Oklahoma would get ranked a week later.  1967 was during the AP's seven year experiment of only ranking 10 teams (1961-1967) which is why none of these teams were ranked.  The teams ranked in that poll were USC, UCLA, TN, NCST, UGA, Purdue, Indiana, Wyoming, Colorado, Notre Dame, and Houston.  One week earlier on 10/23/1967 Notre Dame was also unranked so the top-5 most frequently ranked teams were all unranked on 10/23/1967. 

This is just my work to figure it out:
  • Alabama in every poll 2008-2025
  • Ohio State in every poll 2005-2007
  • Michigan in every poll 1999-2004
  • Ohio State in every poll 1995-1998
  • Michigan in every poll 1994
  • Ohio State in every poll 1993
  • Michigan in every poll 1988-1992
  • Oklahoma in every poll 1984-1987
  • Ohio State in every poll 1983
  • 1982:  tOSU ranked pre-9/20, 11/22-end; M ranked pre-9/20, 10/25-12/6; OU ranked pre-9/6, 10/18-end; Bama ranked pre-11/8
  • Alabama in every poll 1977-1981
  • Ohio State in every poll 1972-1976
  • Michigan in every poll 1970-1971
  • Ohio State in every poll 1968-1969
  • 1967:  tOSU AND M not ranked at all; OU ranked 11/6-end; Bama ranked pre-10/16 and 11/20-end. 

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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #63 on: August 11, 2026, 05:52:08 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 11, 2026, 04:06:07 PM
I note Ohio State's absence.  That would be a big deal.  The Buckeyes haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 since September 20, 2020 and that was only because they were ineligible due to the B1G not restarting football yet.  They haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 poll that they were eligible for since the final poll of 2011.  In that stretch (2012-2025) appearances:
  • 230 Alabama 100%
  • 228 Ohio State 99.1% (only out of the 9/13/2020 and 9/20/2020 polls due to covid inactivation)
  • 203 Georgia 88.3%
  • 202 Oklahoma 87.8%
  • 192 Notre Dame 83.5%
  • 191 Clemson 83%
  • 182 Oregon 79.1%
  • 171 LSU 74.3%
  • 169 Michigan 73.5%
  • 138 aTm 60%

Just curious, what is your assumption/criteria for excluding the Buckeyes.  Per your projections and your projected poll the Buckeyes would have three losses but those are:
  • AT #2 Indiana
  • AT #9 USC
  • AT #14 Iowa
They would also have a road win over #12 Texas.  Four road games against top-14 teams is brutal and frankly going 1-3 in those isn't all that bad. 

Yeah, I think the problem is I dropped OSU out, and then was looking for replacements, and Wisconsin was the only B1G/SEC team with 3 losses and a big win that week.  But I think OSU probably would have just stayed in in actuality
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2026, 06:45:26 PM »
WEEK TEN
Tuesday, November 3
Miami(Ohio) d. Buffalo
Ohio d. Akron
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #65 on: August 11, 2026, 06:49:11 PM »
WEEK TEN
Wednesday, November 4
Central Michigan d. Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts d. Ball State
Sacramento State d. Toledo
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #66 on: August 11, 2026, 06:52:06 PM »
WEEK TEN
Thursday, November 5
James Madison d. Southern Miss
UTSA d. Florida Atlantic
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ELA

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #67 on: August 11, 2026, 07:03:03 PM »
WEEK TEN
Friday, September 6
SMU d. #10 Virginia Tech
ILLINOIS d. #17 NEBRASKA
Arizona d. #20 TCU

East Carolina d. South Florida
Nevada d. New Mexico
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FearlessF

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #68 on: August 11, 2026, 08:41:59 PM »
damn it, Boy!!!
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
« Reply #69 on: August 12, 2026, 11:29:11 AM »
Quote from: ELA on August 11, 2026, 05:52:08 PM
Yeah, I think the problem is I dropped OSU out, and then was looking for replacements, and Wisconsin was the only B1G/SEC team with 3 losses and a big win that week.  But I think OSU probably would have just stayed in in actuality
That is fair, thanks for answering.  Voters do strange things and use different criteria so who knows what they'd do.  If recency bias is strong then Wisconsin is ahead of Ohio State based on Wisconsin just getting a top-10 win while Ohio State just took a loss but if you look at the whole schedule then Ohio State is ahead.  It would be a fairly close call.  
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