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Topic: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #168 on: August 21, 2025, 03:53:24 PM »
You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.
LoL, thanks.  

I also should point out that I think Minnesota's schedule looks like it could be a great example of something that @betarhoalphadelta and I were discussing a while back, their H/A split is particularly favorable because three of their four B1G road games are against teams where HFA is very unlikely to make a meaningful difference:
  • They'd probably lose to Ohio State no matter where the game was played.  
  • They'd probably lose to Oregon no matter where the game was played.  
  • They'd probably beat Northwestern no matter where the game was played.  
The only league road game where I *think* HFA might matter is the Iowa game where I'd be a lot more confident about Minnesota's chances if that game was in the Twin Cities rather than Iowa City.  As I see it, Minnesota's league games in which HFA is most likely to matter are the games against Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin and the Gophers get two of those three at home.  That should help them.  

FearlessF

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #169 on: August 21, 2025, 06:39:28 PM »
Almost Dave Portnoy quality
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #170 on: August 21, 2025, 09:29:51 PM »
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
Imagine if Trev Alberts had a smartphone 

GopherRock

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #171 on: August 21, 2025, 11:46:00 PM »
LoL, thanks. 

I also should point out that I think Minnesota's schedule looks like it could be a great example of something that @betarhoalphadelta and I were discussing a while back, their H/A split is particularly favorable because three of their four B1G road games are against teams where HFA is very unlikely to make a meaningful difference:
  • They'd probably lose to Ohio State no matter where the game was played. 
  • They'd probably lose to Oregon no matter where the game was played. 
  • They'd probably beat Northwestern no matter where the game was played. 
The only league road game where I *think* HFA might matter is the Iowa game where I'd be a lot more confident about Minnesota's chances if that game was in the Twin Cities rather than Iowa City.  As I see it, Minnesota's league games in which HFA is most likely to matter are the games against Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin and the Gophers get two of those three at home.  That should help them. 

One potential pitfall is that PJ'S teams are notoriously slow starters, spitting up a September game that they have no business letting the opponent hang around.

The magical 2019 season very nearly didn't get off the ground if not for a late night Antoine Winfield interception in OT. Bowling Green.

BTW that Northwestern game on November 20 is at Wrigley. I'll be there, as well as in Berkeley on Week 3.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #172 on: August 22, 2025, 08:48:54 AM »
I don't know who this is & I don't want to, apparently
He was the dude with a complaint.

FearlessF

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #173 on: August 22, 2025, 09:07:42 AM »
don't know what he was complaining about but, My advice would be to shut your pie hole
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #174 on: August 22, 2025, 12:24:34 PM »
Bowl Week 4

DECEMBER 13.
LAWashington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANSSouthern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CUREAppalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURESLouisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACHNavy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLALSU d. Florida State
CFP#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATOBoise State d. Ohio
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATONMarshall d. Toledo
NEW ORLEANSSouth Alabama d. Louisiana Tech
FRISCOUTEP d. Rice
DECEMBER 24
HAWAIIFlorida Atlantic d. Air Force
DECEMBER 26
SPORTSCentral Florida d. Miami(Ohio)
RATEArkansas d. TCU
FIRST RESPONDERKansas d. North Texas
DECEMBER 27
MILITARYNorth Carolina d. Army
PINSTRIPELouisville d. Oklahoma State
FENWAYVirginia d. #21 Tulane
POP-TARTSGeorgia Tech d. Kansas State
ARIZONANorthern Illinois d. San Jose State
NEW MEXICOConnecticut d. New Mexico
HOLIDAYNC State d. WASHINGTON
GATOR#18 Missouri d. #20 Boston College
TEXASSouth Carolina d. Texas Tech
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMFlorida d. Memphis
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCEBYU d. Oregon State
MUSIC CITY#12 Tennessee d. #22 MICHIGAN
ALAMO#19 Houston d. USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#24 NEBRASKA d. #11 Oklahoma
SUNIowa State d. SMU
CITRUS#14 Alabama d. #13 INDIANA
LAS VEGASIOWA d. #25 Arizona State
COTTON#4 OREGON d. #5 ILLINOIS
JANUARY 1
ORANGE#3 Georgia d. #6 Ole Miss
ROSE#1 OHIO STATE d. #8 MINNESOTA
SUGAR#2 Texas d. #7 PENN STATE
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCESBaylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTYCincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA#1 OHIO STATE d. #4 OREGON
JANUARY 9
PEACH#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP#1 OHIO STATE d. #3 Georgia

utee94

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #175 on: August 22, 2025, 12:26:11 PM »
Wow, B1G homer season model produces B1G national champion.  Yawn.

Just kidding AAA, thanks for doing this every year, it's always a lot of fun.





(My team still got jobbed, though)


Cincydawg

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #176 on: August 22, 2025, 12:30:31 PM »
I think Ohio State has never defeated UGA.  Yet.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #177 on: August 22, 2025, 12:46:09 PM »
Love the exercise, hate the outcome...

This is the time of year that the blue bloods are all at their best. We'll see. I'm kind of pulling for Arizona State. But I think ASU is ranked as it is primarily because of what it was at the end of the year last year, not because of any real deep dive into what its team is like now. 

Unfortunately, the random bounce, quirky, well-timed play, and indescribable disasters that used to play an outsized role in how we determined national champions are probably permanently thrown in the dustbin of history. It probably will be the blue bloods who routinely make the final few games of the playoffs going forward.

utee94

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #178 on: August 22, 2025, 12:50:47 PM »
ASU is good, that QB is the real deal.  There's a reason they took Texas to OT in the playoffs last year.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #179 on: August 22, 2025, 12:51:38 PM »
Go Sparky!!

utee94

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #180 on: August 22, 2025, 12:53:54 PM »
I like ASU, always have. @DevilFroggy is likely pleased with the current state of the program.

ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #181 on: August 22, 2025, 01:03:29 PM »
ASU is good, that QB is the real deal.  There's a reason they took Texas to OT in the playoffs last year.
:96:

 

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