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Topic: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #154 on:** August 21, 2025, 07:31:46 AM »

One aspect of facing UGA in the MB dome is that they play there fairly often, so their players who have been with the team have a slightly better understanding of the roof, visibility, etc., aside from fans. They play Tech there this season, they fairly often play the first game there.

ELA · « **Reply #155 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:11:34 PM »

Bowl Week 3

DECEMBER 13	.
LA		Washington State d. Colorado State
DECEMBER 16
VETERANS		Southern Miss d. Bowling Green
DECEMBER 17
CURE		Appalachian State d. South Florida
68 VENTURES		Louisiana d. Central Michigan
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACH		Navy d. Georgia Southern
GASPARILLA		LSU d. Florida State
CFP		#8 MINNESOTA d. #9 Notre Dame
DECEMBER 20
CFP		#5 ILLINOIS d. #17 James Madison
CFP		#6 Ole Miss d. #16 UNLV
CFP		#7 PENN STATE d. #15 Miami
DECEMBER 22
POTATO		Boise State d. Ohio
DECEMBER 23
BOCA RATON		Marshall d. Toledo
NEW ORLEANS		South Alabama d. Louisiana Tech
FRISCO		UTEP d. Rice
DECEMBER 24
HAWAII		Florida Atlantic d. Air Force
DECEMBER 26
SPORTS		Central Florida d. Miami(Ohio)
RATE		Arkansas d. TCU
FIRST RESPONDER		Kansas d. North Texas
DECEMBER 27
MILITARY		North Carolina d. Army
PINSTRIPE		Louisville d. Oklahoma State
FENWAY		Virginia d. #21 Tulane
POP-TARTS		Georgia Tech d. Kansas State
ARIZONA		Northern Illinois d. San Jose State
NEW MEXICO		Connecticut d. New Mexico
HOLIDAY		NC State d. WASHINGTON
GATOR		#18 Missouri d. #20 Boston College
TEXAS		South Carolina d. Texas Tech
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAM		Florida d. Memphis
DECEMBER 30
INDEPENDENCE		BYU d. Oregon State
MUSIC CITY		#12 Tennessee d. #22 MICHIGAN
ALAMO		#19 Houston d. USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST		#24 NEBRASKA d. #11 Oklahoma
SUN		Iowa State d. SMU
CITRUS		#14 Alabama d. #13 INDIANA
LAS VEGAS		IOWA d. #25 Arizona State
COTTON		#4 OREGON d. #5 ILLINOIS
JANUARY 1
ORANGE		#3 Georgia d. #6 Ole Miss
ROSE		#1 OHIO STATE d. #8 MINNESOTA
SUGAR		#2 Texas d. #7 PENN STATE
JANUARY 2
ARMED FORCES		Baylor (6-6) vs. UTSA (9-4)
LIBERTY		Cincinnati (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
MAYO		#10 Clemson (10-2) vs. #23 Vanderbilt (8-4)
JANUARY 8
FIESTA		#1 OHIO STATE d. #4 OREGON
JANUARY 9
PEACH		#3 Georgia d. #2 Texas
JANUARY 19
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP		#1 OHIO STATE (15-0) vs. #3 Georgia (13-2)

utee94 · « **Reply #156 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:14:01 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:11:34 PM

JANUARY 9
PEACH #3 Georgia d. #2 Texas

This whole thing is complete BULLSHIT! Horns had to play the Bulldogs 3 times, all in the state of Georgia. I cry foul!

ELA · « **Reply #157 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:16:11 PM »

Definitely the most impressive 3 loss season, considering 4 games were against the national championship participants, none at home

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #158 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:27:23 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 20, 2025, 02:47:16 PM

It's not like college basketball puts the entire tournament in warm weather destinations. in fact, if anything, they are TOO generous with spreading the games around, by continuing to put to many games out west.

I wanted to come back to this because the too many games out west thing has been a pet peeve of mine for years so I started tracking it so I can put data behind this statement. This is definitively NOT just a feeling that you and I and some others share, it is an absolute fact. I track it by timezone. In the last 21 tournaments (2004-2025 but no 2020 due to COVID) the top-4 seeds have come from:

EST: 8.62 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 6-11. This justifies a little over 4 first/second round sites per year in a range of 3 - almost 6.
CST: 5.29 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 2-9. This justifies a little under 3 first/second round sites per year in a range of 1 - just over 4.
MST: 0.62 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 0-1. This justifies one first/second round site every fourth year in a range of 0 - 0.5.
PST: 1.48 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 0-3. This justifies less than one first/second round site per year in a range of 0 - 1.5.

The MST and PST timezones have so few top-4 seeds that they really need to be combined and here is what you get:

EST and CST: 13.90 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 12 to ALL 16. This justifies almost 7 first/second round sites per year in a range of 6 - 8.
MST and PSU: 2.10 top-4 seeds on average in a range of 0 - 4. This justifies just over one first/second round site per year in a range of 0 - 2.

So what did they do in 2025:

EST: 4 sites: Providence, Raleigh, Cleveland, Lexington
CST: 2 sites: Milwaukee, Wichita
MST: 1 site: Denver
PST: 1 site: Seattle

Where were the top-4 seeds from in 2025, fairly typical:

8 EST: UF, StJohns, UMD, MSU, TN, UK, PU
7 CST: Bama, UW, TxTech, Auburn, ISU, aTm, Houston
1 MST: Zona
PST: Crickets

So, as per usual, the eastern #4 and #5 seeds got screwed because there weren't enough eastern sites:
In the South Regional:

#4 seed aTm went to Denver. This is pretty good for them but that only worked out because they are fairly far west in the CST.
#5 seed Michigan got sent to Denver where their opener was against #12 UCSD that was closer to home than they were and then they were at a major geographical disadvantage in the second round against aTm (didn't matter in this case, they won anyway).

West Regional:

#4 seed Maryland got sent all the way to Seattle where their opener was against #13 Grand Canyon that was closer to home than they were then they had a geographical disadvantage in the second round either way because both #5 Memphis and #12 CoSt are closer to Seattle than Maryland is.
#5 seed Memphis got sent all the way to Seattle which would have been a minor advantage in the second round against Maryland had they made it but instead they were upset in their opener by #12 CoSt who was closer to home than they were.

East Regional:

#4 Zona as the ONLY top-4 seed from the western two timezones got a convenient location in Seattle.
#5 Oregon got a MUCH more favorable location several #4 seeds with games in nearby Seattle.

Midwest Regional:

#4 Purdue got sent to Providence where they played #13 High Point (NC) in a reasonably neutral game)
#5 Clemson got sent to Providence where they lost to #12 McNeese (LA) despite a geographic advantage.

It is in the nature of a tournament like this with sites selected in advance that sometimes some schools will get an undeserved geographic disadvantage so that part doesn't bother me. Also, it is at least theoretically in the power of the schools in question to avoid that by getting themselves seeded higher. What bothers me is that they KNOW better and screw the eastern schools anyway. The data that I provided isn't hard to find and the schools in the EST and CST earn enough high bids to justify putting seven of the eight first/second round sites in those two time zones. The NCAA either knows this or *SHOULD* know it so they aught to do exactly that but instead they consistently put two and sometimes three first/second round sites out west where there are almost never enough top-4 seeds to justify two sites.

SFBadger96 · « **Reply #159 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:30:54 PM »

If the season turns out like this, SFGopher will have a hell of a freshman year as a football fan. Not unlike mine as a sophomore.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #160 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:33:59 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 02:16:11 PM

Definitely the most impressive 3 loss season, considering 4 games were against the national championship participants, none at home

Am I right that in this simulation:

Georgia is 2-1 against Texas with a win in Athens, loss in the SECCG in ATL, and win in the CFP Semi-Final in ATL?
Ohio State is 2-0 against Oregon with win in the B1GCG in Indianapolis and a win in the CFP Semi-Final in PHX?
Texas finishes 12+3 with a road loss to each NC participant and a split of "neutral site" games against UGA in Georgia?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #161 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:49:47 PM »

Ya gotta admit, the prospect of have THREE Texas-UGA games, all in the state of Georgia is .... weird.

It would mean "we" pull even with them all time, I think. Texas still has work to do with Vandy.

utee94 · « **Reply #162 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:52:13 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:49:47 PM

Ya gotta admit, the prospect of have THREE Texas-UGA games, all in the state of Georgia is .... weird.

It would mean "we" pull even with them all time, I think. Texas still has work to do with Vandy.

Gotta beat 'em 4 more times in a row just to even up the series. Last year's win in Nashville was super-important!

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #163 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:52:33 PM »

Quote from: SFBadger96 on August 21, 2025, 02:30:54 PM

If the season turns out like this, SFGopher will have a hell of a freshman year as a football fan. Not unlike mine as a sophomore.

I was just looking at Minnesota's schedule (for unrelated reasons, because I'm thinking of taking a kid or two to the MN/tOSU game). Here it is:
Minnesota Golden Gophers Schedule 2025
202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032025

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT	TIME	TV	tickets
Thu, Aug 28	vs Buffalo	8:00 PM	FS1	Tickets as low as $20
Sat, Sep 6	vs Northwestern State	12:00 PM	BTN	Tickets as low as $17
Sat, Sep 13	@ California	10:30 PM		Tickets as low as $25
Sat, Sep 27	vs Rutgers	TBD		Tickets as low as $48
Sat, Oct 4	@ 3 Ohio State	TBD		Tickets as low as $115
Sat, Oct 11	vs Purdue	TBD		Tickets as low as $49
Fri, Oct 17	vs Nebraska	8:00 PM	FOX	Tickets as low as $111
Sat, Oct 25	@ Iowa	TBD		Tickets as low as $125
Sat, Nov 1	vs Michigan State	TBD		Tickets as low as $55
Fri, Nov 14	@ 7 Oregon	9:00 PM	FOX	Tickets as low as $41
Sat, Nov 22	@ Northwestern	TBD		Tickets as low as $75
Sat, Nov 29	vs Wisconsin	TBD		Tickets as low as $84

My thought is that the season hinges not on the tOSU and Oregon games but on a pair of consecutive mid-season games that could go either way. My thinking is that the Gophers are VERY unlikely to win in either Columbus or Eugene as both of those are road games against preseason top-7 teams. However, with what I know about the team they should win the first three home games and probably also the game at Berkley (are you going to that one?) They also should beat Purdue at home and lose in Columbus so they *should* be 5-1 in mid-October with the only loss being to what will likely be a top-10ish Ohio State. That should get them pretty solidly ranked.

Within this simulation @ELA has them ranked #17 at 5-1 following a win over Purdue. The next two games, IMHO, are the key to their season. Both Nebraska at home and Iowa on the road are games where I could see it going either way for the Gophers and the difference between 2-0 and 0-2 is stark. In this simulation they win both and ascend to #7 at 7-1. Then they beat MSU (up to #6), have a week off (stay at #6), and head to Eugene for a top-6 matchup with League and National Title implications. That #4/6 game in Eugene would get Gameday except that:

It is on Friday night rather than Saturday, and
It is up against UGA/TX

Even with the loss in Eugene the Gophers still finish 10-2/7-2, tied for third in the B1G, and hosting a CFP game.

Lose those two (vs UNL, at IA) and it is a completely different story. Unless they pull off an upset in Eugene they can do no better than 8-4/5-4 completely out of the league title race and not even in the CFP conversation. What do you think?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #164 on:** August 21, 2025, 02:54:35 PM »

You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.

ELA · « **Reply #165 on:** August 21, 2025, 03:45:47 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2025, 02:54:35 PM

You do excellent stuff, better than anyone on ESPiN.

Almost Dave Portnoy quality

ELA · « **Reply #166 on:** August 21, 2025, 03:47:12 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2025, 02:33:59 PM

Am I right that in this simulation:
Georgia is 2-1 against Texas with a win in Athens, loss in the SECCG in ATL, and win in the CFP Semi-Final in ATL?
Ohio State is 2-0 against Oregon with win in the B1GCG in Indianapolis and a win in the CFP Semi-Final in PHX?
Texas finishes 12+3 with a road loss to each NC participant and a split of "neutral site" games against UGA in Georgia?

Correct. With the new seeding we are just going to see a glut of Big Ten/SEC teams, and a lot of rematches. They really overcompensated for their initial seeding mistake, and now we have this

Cincydawg · « **Reply #167 on:** August 21, 2025, 03:52:20 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 21, 2025, 03:45:47 PM

Almost Dave Portnoy quality

I'm chuckling.

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Topic: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

Cincydawg

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

ELA

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

utee94

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

ELA

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

medinabuckeye1

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

SFBadger96

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

medinabuckeye1

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

Cincydawg

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

utee94

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

ELA

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

ELA

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

Cincydawg

Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation