Nebraska Cornhuskers
Head coach: Matt Rhule (fourth year, 19-19 overall)
2026 projection: 37th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (3.3 in the Big Ten)
I was very curious how the new era of player movement would impact the Matt Rhule Culture-Building Machine. At previous stops, the third year was when everything came together for Rhule.
Rhule's first year at Temple and Baylor: 3-21 record, 84.0 average SP+ ranking
Rhule's second year: 13-12 record, 71.5 average ranking
Rhule's third year: 21-7 record, 34.0 average ranking
At Nebraska, he had engineered solid improvement, with the Huskers improving from 5-7 to 7-6 and from 66th to 47th in SP+. But Year 3 didn't see a breakthrough -- instead, the Cornhuskers basically replicated their 2024 numbers: 7-6 and 46th. The offense took a lovely step forward despite losing starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to injury, but the defense backslid after the departure of coordinator Tony White.
Things obviously aren't going poorly -- two straight winning seasons after nine straight sub-.500 seasons is by definition solid -- but Rhule and the Huskers enter Year 4 with a strange sense of stagnation. Coordinator Dana Holgorsen has made the offense fun, and Rhule just replaced Raiola with a flawed but incredibly enjoyable transfer (UNLV's Anthony Colandrea). But Rob Aurich will be NU's fourth defensive coordinator in five seasons, and Rhule will be awfully reliant on transfers for a defensive turnaround. Culture building isn't what it used to be, and we'll see if Rhule can guide Nebraska higher up the ladder.
Colandrea really is fun. He has pretty scramble-heavy tendencies, but he doesn't take nearly as many sacks as Raiola, and he was a far better big-play seeker last season, albeit in a conference with worse defenses than the Big Ten's. His nine career multi-INT games suggest he can trust his own abilities too much at times, but he'll have fun with receivers Nyziah Hunter and Jacory Barney Jr. With 1,400-yard rusher Emmett Johnson off to the pros, a couple of sophomores (Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee) will need to take charge at RB, but with three returning linemen and some exciting additions up front -- guards Brendan Black (Iowa State) and Paul Mubenga (LSU) and tackle Tree Babalade (South Carolina) -- the line should pave the way nicely.
Fresh from engineering a massive defensive course correction at San Diego State, Aurich takes over a defense in which (a) a number of newcomers will be asked to come up big and (b) many of last year's best players were young. Sophomores such as ends Williams Nwaneri and Kade Pietrzak, corner Donovan Jones and safety Rex Guthrie could enjoy breakout seasons, but probably not without help from linebackers Owen Chambliss (SDSU) and Dexter Foster (Oregon State), corner Victor Evans III (Florida International) and safety Dwayne McDougle (SDSU).
This is clearly going to be a solid team, but unless Colandrea has another gear or Aurich is an absolute magician, a ranking in the 30s feels about right.