2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Rock fights from here out


https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20

[bayareabadger]

Rock fights from here out


https://twitter.com/SpartyWRLD/status/2011454365819863507?s=20

Izzo is so happy. 

[medinabuckeye1]

My thought on this team is just getting to the tournament would be enough.

According to @ELA 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both.  On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team.  I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there.  Despite @ELA 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor.  

[bayareabadger]

According to @ELA 's table, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nearly identical and I think the situation is similar for both.  On any given good day they can have a great game and light someone up (ie, UW winning in Ann Arbor) but on a bad day they are vulnerable to any B1G team.  I think both will wind up somewhere close to the bubble with the difference being a few buckets here or there.  Despite @ELA 's table ranking them almost identically, Wisconsin seems to be in a little better place largely because of the upset win in Ann Arbor. 

The table is just net efficiency and conference play, which isn’t all that meaningful early on.

I saw one metric that has OSU in worse shape by a decent margin, though I suppose that reflects Ohio State being a bit behind and having a bunch oh harder games ahead. 

[ELA]

Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.

However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38

[bayareabadger]

Yeah, it's like a 6 game sample size.

However, KenPom has Wisconsin #37 and Ohio State #38

That’s true. I don’t pay for KenPom, and thus am using T-Rank where the gap is 36-43, but it just looks like UW is in a better spot.

The Badgers are a win ahead, have the Michigan win and a slightly better set of Q1/Q2 wins. But more than that, the schedule stands out.

Again, per T-Rank, Wisconsin has three games harder than at OSU. The Buckeyes have seven games harder than that one. Wisconsin has five games left vs teams better than OSU, two at home. OSU has seven vs teams better than UW, three at home, one neutral.

Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.

[ELA]

BPI has OSU #36 and Wisconsin #37.

But the resume metrics favor Wisconsin, and Wisconsin has the substantially easier schedule going forward.  Wisconsin actually has the easiest remaining schedule in the conference, based on BPI, which is the only free metric which measures that.

Wisconsin has been the 5th "luckiest" team in the conference, which is just essentially record vs. expected record based on efficiencies.  Which is why I love SOR when it comes to selecting teams.  Don't use it to gamble, but use it to choose teams.  OSU is #16.  Sadly USC and Rutgers are #1 and #2

[FearlessF]

hawks gave the boilers a game tonight

[medinabuckeye1]

Not that OSU can’t make it work, but with fine margins and needing the big wins, the path is tighter.

That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday.  It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close.  UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:

• For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip.  
• UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday.  
• Ohio State is at home.  
• Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday.  

In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road.  The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games.  

[bayareabadger]

That is my concern and speaking of that, the Buckeyes host UCLA on Saturday.  It is probably too early in the season to call a game a "must win" but this is awfully close.  UCLA is a better team but not by all that much (29 vs 35 in BPI) and Ohio State has what should be some major advantages:

• For the Bruins this is the second half of a long road-trip. 
• UCLA will be on three days rest after playing at PSU on Wednesday. 
• Ohio State is at home. 
• Ohio State should be well rested having played their last game at Washington on Sunday. 

In theory the Buckeyes could lose this and still make the NCAA but it would require a much less likely victory down the road.  The path is already narrow for the Buckeyes so they can ill afford losses in winnable games. 

Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.

With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?

If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.

[bayareabadger]

I’m realizing that bad Wisconsin means a better chance that I could actually see them in person in the tournament. That’s interesting.

Whereas, if they are good, they either get a spot in the Midwest or get banished to be one of the not quite top seeds in a western locale because of the unbalanced sites.

[CatsbyAZ]

From ESPN - "Twenty men have been charged in a point-shaving scheme involving more than 39 college basketball players on 17 NCAA Division I teams, leading to more than 29 games being fixed, according to a federal indictment unsealed Thursday in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. Fifteen of the defendants played college basketball during the 2023-24 and/or 2024-25 seasons, according to the indictment."


https://twitter.com/espn/status/2011826569816195331

[medinabuckeye1]

Per T-Rank, UCLA is the fifth-most likely win left out of 15.

With 11 wins, you’d like at least seven more, likely eight?

If they can win that one, the four easiest, Wisconsin at home at Penn State, you need one upset to get to that eight. That makes it sound less bad.

This is more-or-less exactly how I analyze it. 

It wouldn't take anything ridiculous for the Buckeyes to make the tournament. That said, I wouldn't bet on it because even if they beat UCLA, get one upset, win at PSU, and beat UW in Columbus they'd still be likely out if they suffer a negative upset somewhere along the way. 

On wins my thinking pretty much matches yours:

• 20-11 or better is almost certainly in.
• 19-12 is probably in but could be left out with a bad BTT loss and/or a strong bubble. 
• 18-13 would require a REALLY good run in the BTT.
• 17-14 or worse is almost certainly out.

[ELA]

Just learned Purdue doesn't play road games at Michigan, MSU, or Illinois.  Immediately put in $ on them to win the Big Ten