REGULAR SEASONvs
Akron
8/313:30 PMCBSvs
W Michigan
9/77:30 PMBIG10vs
Marshall
9/21TBD@
Michigan St
9/28TBDvs
Iowa
10/5TBD@
Oregon
10/12TBDvs
Nebraska
10/26TBD@
Penn State
11/2TBDvs
Purdue
11/9TBD@
Northwestern
11/16TBDvs
Indiana
11/23TBDvs
Michigan
11/3012:00 PMFOXMy take on the schedule:
Despite losing three straight to the cheating Wolverines and that being THE GAME, I think that the key here is the four-game stretch October 5 through November 2 consisting of:
- vs Iowa on October 5
- at Oregon on October 12
- Week off on October 19
- vs Nebraska on October 26
- at Penn State on November 2
I do not believe that Iowa and Nebraska will be quite at Ohio State's level and those are home games so the Buckeyes *SHOULD* win those but I see them as teams that are good enough to knock off Ohio State if the Buckeyes get caught peeking ahead or are otherwise not on top of their game.
The road trips to Oregon and Penn State look to be extremely tough games in extremely hostile road environments. Specifically with regard to Oregon, here are all of Ohio State's results in Pacific Coast state road games in my lifetime:
- 52-34 win at Cal on 9/14/2013. Even this wasn't all that impressive considering that tOSU started that season 12-0 while Cal went 1-11
- 35-3 loss at USC on 9/13/2008. That USC team was a powerhouse so there isn't much shame in losing but getting run off the field was embarrassing.
- 33-14 win at Washington on 9/15/2007. Nice to get a win but tOSU was 11-2 and WA was 4-9 so this isn't all that impressive either.
- 13-6 loss at UCLA on 9/22/2001. Not a good showing in Tressel's inaugural season.
- 25-16 loss at Washington on 9/10/1994. Ohio State was a better team (9-4 vs 7-4) but lost anyway.
- 40-7 loss at Washington on 9/13/1986. Ohio State was MUCH better than their dismal showing in Seattle.
- 24-19 win at Stanford on 9/26/1981. Another unimpressive win. Ohio State went 9-3 that year while Stanford went 4-7, the Buckeyes should have mauled the Cardinal not barely escaped.
- 17-13 win at UCLA on 9/29/1979. This is a very unimpressive win considering that UCLA was sub .500 that year while tOSU was one play from the NC.
- 41-20 win at UCLA on 10/4/1975. Finally an impressive looking win except it really wasn't. The 20 points that UCLA scored on tOSU's defense that day was the second most given up by the Buckeyes in a two year stretch of 1974-1975. The only time in those two years that the Buckeyes gave up more than 20 was when they lost 23-10 to these very same Bruins in the Rose Bowl at the end of the 1975 season, Ugh!
By my count there have been nine tOSU road games in CA/OR/WA in my lifetime and the Buckeyes are 5-4 with four decidedly unimpressive wins over vastly inferior opponents, one win that was great but that it came before losing to the same team on the same field later, and four losses including getting absolutely run off the field twice and losing to definitively inferior opponents the other two times. That doesn't portend well for the trip to Autzen on October 12.
Penn State is a bit of a conundrum. The Buckeyes have more-or-less dominated the series since the Lions joined the League but that is mostly a product of being a near-perfect 14-2 at home with losses only in the 2011 catastrophe in in 2008. In Happy Valley the series has been MUCH closer with the Buckeyes holding only a 9-6 advantage and even the average scores are nearly equal. The Nittany Lions are always "up" for this game at their place and there have been several Buckeye losses to inferior teams and close wins in years where, based on records, you would expect the Buckeyes to obliterate the Lions.
Aside from these four games and THE GAME, the Buckeyes would have to really screw up to lose a game. The OOC is an embarrassment and the rest of the league opponents are projected to be bottom-feeders. Thus, this four game stretch is the key and:
- 4-0: The Michigan game likely becomes an exhibition as the Buckeyes will have already clinched a spot in the B1GCG.
- 3-1: The Michigan game matters but the Buckeyes are in the playoff either way, THE GAME simply determines whether it is as a first round traveler, as a first round host, or as a team sitting out the first round with a bye.
- 2-2: The Michigan game becomes intensely important because the Buckeyes might not be able to make the B1GCG even with a win and they certainly can't with a loss.
- 1-3: The Michigan game is a chance to redeem the season and *MAYBE* get back into the B1GCG and CFP mix.
- 0-4: The wheels have come off and the Michigan game serves only as a chance at redemption in a season that will be viewed as a failure regardless.
