2024 Michigan Offseason Thread

[Mdot21]

I kinda understand the LSU move. Notre Dame is what it is, and I think that's "washed up".

• They're nowhere near the national draw that they once were. They haven't won it all in 35 years. Without getting into politics, Catholicism/religiosity isn't what it used to be, so I would worry that might impact their national fan base.
• While they can recruit nationally, demographically they're in an area of the country that is shrinking, and have OSU/UM in their backyard who have actually won national titles this century (at least as of 2 weeks ago lol).
• LSU is in a better climate if you want to recruit nationally, and there are more recruits per capita worth getting in the South IMHO.
• While I think they're pompous poseurs, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they think they can still win despite having more stringent admission requirements for football than other helmet schools. They might have the ego they can be the ND of old while handcuffing themselves.
• As crazy as southerners are about their football, are the expectations actually as high at LSU as ND? And in this I think it might be a double-edged sword. I'm not sure expectations WERE as high b/c Saban was around, whereas at ND expectations are always high. Delusional, but high. And now I don't know that he'd leave for UM because Saban's gone, because he doesn't have to compete with him any more. Expectations are high but are actually more attainable.

I don't know why he'd leave for Michigan. It has a lot of the same problems as ND (including, now, heightened expectations), but I don't see many advantages.

kind of agree with all this.

but the landscape is changing. NIL & portal is going to become more important than ever. LSU might not be able to keep up with the Jonses in that department.

Michigan doesn't have the same academic restrictions that ND has. And it's in a state with much more talent. Michigan at least has some talent as a state. Indiana has virtually next to none.

Michigan is a better job than ND and you CAN win titles there. 2 of Michigan's last 4 head coaches have won a National Title and multiple B1G championships. That's 50% by my math. And LC was a really good coach, not an elite one imo. Jeem was/is an elite one imo. Problem for Michigan however is that RichRod was a pretty bad coach and Brady Hoke might've actually been a worse one than RichRod.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Good point on NIL. I didn't really include it in my analysis because while we know it has a massive effect, it's so new and it's changing so fast that it's hard to discern exactly what, how, and where it is having that effect. And then it gets even harder to project what it'll be even 2-3 years form now. 

But if I had to guess, UM is going to have bigger fundraising capability for NIL than LSU. Big alumni base, more national rather than regional following, and to an extent possibly a more affluent base to raise from. I'll tell you that in Orange County, CA, I see a lot more yellow M decals on cars / sweatshirts / etc than purple LSU decals. 

[MrNubbz]

Michigan is a better job than ND and you CAN win titles there. 2 of Michigan's last 4 head coaches have won 1/2 of a National Title and one yet to be determined & multiple B1G championships. That's 50% by my math. And LC was a really good coach, not an elite one imo. Jeem was/is an elite one imo. Problem for Michigan however is that RichRod was a pretty bad coach and Brady Hoke might've actually been a worse one than RichRod.

FIFY 🙊🙉🙈

[Mdot21]

if Michigan doesn't hire Moore it could be open season on the portal for them. Their top 5 most coveted guys that teams will tamper with to try and get in the portal will be....

1) Will Johnson, CB, True Jr. - best CB in the nation and it's not close imo. Future top 10 NFL draft pick.

2) Donovan Edwards, RB, True Sr. - freak show athlete, was banged up a lot and basically barely used in '23...as ELA has said before the guy is basically Marshall Faulk and Jeem had no idea how to use him properly. Could be a 1,000 yard rusher and 1,000 yard receiver in the right system. Would LOVE to see him in an offense like Oregon or USC's if he does go.

3) Mason Graham, DT, True Jr. - maybe the best d-tackle in CFB in '24. certainly in the convo. Future 1st rd pick.

4) Colston Loveland, TE, True Jr. - arguably the top returning TE in all of CFB. Plug and play All-American level TE.

5) Kenneth Grant, NT, True Jr. - complete freak show for a NT. 6'4, 340 and moves way better than anyone his size has any business doing. looks like one of those mutants Georgia had inside on the DL in '22 & '23. Not as polished as Graham but more physically gifted. He's got future 1st rd potential.

[ELA]

if Michigan doesn't hire Moore it could be open season on the portal for them. Their top 5 most coveted guys that teams will tamper with to try and get in the portal will be....

I did see pointed out that here, the spring semester has already started, so even if kids did transfer, they wouldn't be able to enroll til summer, and they'd miss spring ball.

Might as well stick it out through the spring, see how things go, and then if you still want out, use the post-spring transfer window.

[Mdot21]

I did see pointed out that here, the spring semester has already started, so even if kids did transfer, they wouldn't be able to enroll til summer, and they'd miss spring ball.

Might as well stick it out through the spring, see how things go, and then if you still want out, use the post-spring transfer window.

just saw this mentioned on cover 3 podcast. Michigan may have lucked out here on the timing. I'm 99% they'll promote Moore anyways and keep that roster intact.

Michigan better hit that portal hard in spring. Need a QB.

[utee94]

Some schools could still accept a transfer student.  Add/Drops at Texas go on for another week, so theoretically a Michigan cornerback or safety or both could come to Texas and enroll for the spring...

[ELA]

just saw this mentioned on cover 3 podcast. Michigan may have lucked out here on the timing. I'm 99% they'll promote Moore anyways and keep that roster intact.

Michigan better hit that portal hard in spring. Need a QB.

Agreed.  He was in my top 5 MSU candidates, but my concerns were (i) having to wait for Michigan's season to be over; and (ii) bringing in an outsider with no head coaching experience.  I think promoting from within is one thing.  But how many P5 coaches were outside hires with no head coaching experience?

[Mdot21]

not sure how true it is, but internet rumor going 'round that internally Moore is already the guy just hasn't been announced bc of some stupid state law in Michigan where the job opening has to be posted for 7 days, that DC Jesse Minter is going to the NFL with Jeem, Herbert is staying put at S&C, and that RB coach Mike Hart is leaving because Moore wasn't going to promote him to OC and Hart definitely has aspirations of moving up in the coaching game and being a head coach one day.

we'll see in like a week how accurate any of this is....

[betarhoalphadelta]

2) Donovan Edwards, RB, True Sr. - freak show athlete, was banged up a lot and basically barely used in '23...as ELA has said before the guy is basically Marshall Faulk and Jeem had no idea how to use him properly. Could be a 1,000 yard rusher and 1,000 yard receiver in the right system. Would LOVE to see him in an offense like Oregon or USC's if he does go.

If something went screwy with the coaching decisions, what does Edwards' draft potential look like if he's a true senior?

I mean, I assume he'd be invited to the combine. And if he's the freak show athlete you say, between that and Michigan's pro day, his stock could likely rocket up despite maybe not being used enough in college based on measurables?  

I don't follow the draft much, and frankly don't know much about Edwards. But we all know that for running backs, the earlier you can get into the league, the better, because you want to be as young as possible when you have a shot at getting paid after your rookie deal. What would that decision-making matrix look like for him, declaring for the draft vs transferring and trying to "show out" while hopefully avoiding injury? 

[MaximumSam]

Agreed.  He was in my top 5 MSU candidates, but my concerns were (i) having to wait for Michigan's season to be over; and (ii) bringing in an outsider with no head coaching experience.  I think promoting from within is one thing.  But how many P5 coaches were outside hires with no head coaching experience?

[Mdot21]

If something went screwy with the coaching decisions, what does Edwards' draft potential look like if he's a true senior?

I mean, I assume he'd be invited to the combine. And if he's the freak show athlete you say, between that and Michigan's pro day, his stock could likely rocket up despite maybe not being used enough in college based on measurables? 

I don't follow the draft much, and frankly don't know much about Edwards. But we all know that for running backs, the earlier you can get into the league, the better, because you want to be as young as possible when you have a shot at getting paid after your rookie deal. What would that decision-making matrix look like for him, declaring for the draft vs transferring and trying to "show out" while hopefully avoiding injury?

he came back because he had a down junior year coming off an incredibly impressive sophomore year. pretty simple, he wants to be the feature back and get the bulk of the carries to show what he can do, and he just never had that chance with Corum there. he's over 6', 210ish, runs 4.4 and could play WR at a high level if he concentrated on that position full time. simply put Corum sucked up the vast majority of the run game carries and they just flat out don't pass the ball enough to actually utilize receiving skills and motion him out wide or in the slot and play him at WR or run wheel routes with him out of the backfield and actually use him in the pass game- but when they actually have made it a point of emphasis to get him the ball as a receiver- he shines.

PFF was talking about him as a potential 1st rd pick after his sophomore year. His JR year he missed spring and a big chunk of fall camp with a knee injury and he was banged up most of the season and barely used til he had a couple big runs vs Penn State and then went all video game in the Natty.  

Corum is a fantastic college back, will probably be a day 2 pick and solid pro for 5 years or so. Edwards on the other hand has superstar potential and could be a 1st rd pick and develop into one of the best backs in the entire NFL imo- especially with the way the game is played today and how valuable pass catching RB's are. Think Alvin Kamara 2.0.

[Mdot21]

the unquestioned king of CFB now with Saban retired, Jeem off to the NFL, and Dabo on the backslide down to reality.

Ryan Day better beat Michigan and win a natty this year or he's probably fired and then Kirby is going to win his 3rd in 4 years and just take sh*t over and we'll have another goddamn Saban on our hands where one guy just sucks all the oxygen out of the room.

[betarhoalphadelta]

he came back because he had a down junior year coming off an incredibly impressive sophomore year. pretty simple, he wants to be the feature back and get the bulk of the carries to show what he can do, and he just never had that chance with Corum there. he's over 6', 210ish, runs 4.4 and could play WR at a high level if he concentrated on that position full time. simply put Corum sucked up the vast majority of the run game carries and they just flat out don't pass the ball enough to actually utilize receiving skills and motion him out wide or in the slot and play him at WR or run wheel routes with him out of the backfield and actually use him in the pass game- but when they actually have made it a point of emphasis to get him the ball as a receiver- he shines.

PFF was talking about him as a potential 1st rd pick after his sophomore year. His JR year he missed spring and a big chunk of fall camp with a knee injury and he was banged up most of the season and barely used til he had a couple big runs vs Penn State and then went all video game in the Natty. 

Corum is a fantastic college back, will probably be a day 2 pick and solid pro for 5 years or so. Edwards on the other hand has superstar potential and could be a 1st rd pick and develop into one of the best backs in the entire NFL imo- especially with the way the game is played today and how valuable pass catching RB's are. Think Alvin Kamara 2.0.

Thanks... But that doesn't actually answer the question lol...

If he decided tomorrow to declare for the draft, what sort of look do you think he'd get? 

Including the problem of poor utilization in 2023 and being behind Corum, but assuming that he shows out with great measurables at pro day / combine. 

I mean, Kamara was a round 3 pick. Even if he shows out in 2024, what's Edwards' ceiling? Is there a huge benefit over trying to go in this year's draft?

Or, perhaps putting it another way... Once the pro day / combine stuff is done, what are the odds Edwards would be drafted ABOVE Corum?