2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

Last night has to have cooked Ben Johnson at Minnesota, right?

NW down two of its three best players, jumps the Gophers badly early and wins by double digits in the Twin Cities. Ugly scene. 

[ELA]

OSU shooting pretty well tonight

[FearlessF]

don't save it for nebraska

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU shooting pretty well tonight

They managed to achieve a split out in LA.

I pointed out before the season that Ohio State had a possible travel advantage against USC because Ohio State's last game was on Sunday across town while USC's was on Sunday . . .
 across the country. 

The win in LA probably puts Ohio State back on the right side of the bubble heading into a game against fellow bubble teams Nebraska in Columbus on Tuesday (Ohio State is off this weekend).

Assuming that Nebraska beats Minnesota at home this weekend, they will be tied with Ohio State at 8-10 in the league heading into that bubble clash in Columbus Tuesday night.

The Nebraska/Ohio State game is the penultimate regular season game for both teams. Nebraska's finale is a home game against Iowa while Ohio State's is a tougher road tilt at Indiana. 

[ELA]

They managed to achieve a split out in LA.

I pointed out before the season that Ohio State had a possible travel advantage against USC because Ohio State's last game was on Sunday across town while USC's was on Sunday . . 

Mick Cronin pointed out something similar earlier this year.  Maybe it was the Michigan loss?  That Michigan had been in town after playing USC, but UCLA had just played 2 days earlier at Indiana, so Michigan actually had the travel advantage.

He's not wrong, and I assume it wasn't up to him, but UCLA cashed the Big Ten check

[bayareabadger]

Of note, yesterday’s bonkers finish in Maryland, Spartans are in the drivers seat for a league title. 

Odd season for them, but they’ve been nails on defense and finding the way to finish out games. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Of note, yesterday’s bonkers finish in Maryland, Spartans are in the drivers seat for a league title.

Odd season for them, but they’ve been nails on defense and finding the way to finish out games.

Drivers seat but Michigan still controls their own destiny as they are tied in the loss column and those two teams finish against each other.  

Checking in on the races:

• 14-3 Michigan State:  vsUW 3/2, @IA 3/6, vsM 3/9
• 13-3 Michigan:  vsRU 2/27, vsIL 3/2, vsUMD 3/5, @MSU 3/9
• 12-5 Wisconsin:  @MSU 3/2, @MN 3/5, vsPSU 3/8
• 11-6 Purdue:  vsUCLA 2/28, vsRU 3/4, @IL 3/7
• 11-6 Maryland:  @PSU 3/1, @M 3/5, vsNU 3/8
• 11-6 UCLA:  @PU 2/28, @NU 3/3, vs USC 3/8
• 10-8 Illinois:  @M 3/2, vsPU 3/7
• 9-8 Oregon:  vsUSC 3/1, vsIU 3/4, @UDub 3/9
• 8-9 Indiana:  @UDub 3/1, @Ore 3/4, vstOSU 3/8
• 8-10 Ohio State:  vsUNL 3/4, @IU 3/8
• 7-10 Rutgers:  @M 2/27, @PU 3/4, vsMN 3/9
• 7-10 Nebraska:  vsMN 3/1, @tOSU 3/4, vsIA 3/9
• 6-11 Northwestern:  vsIA 2/28, vsUCLA 3/3, @UMD 3/8
• 6-11 Minnesota:  @UNL 3/1, vsUW 3/5, @RU 3/9
• 6-11 Southern California:  @Ore 3/1, vsUDub 3/5, @UCLA 3/8
• 6-11 Iowa:  @NU 2/28, vsMSU 3/6, @UNL 3/9
• 5-13 Penn State:  vsUMD 3/1, @UW 3/8
• 4-13 Washington:  vsIU 3/1, @USC 3/5, vsOre 3/9

A few thoughts:

• If Michigan beats Rutgers tonight they will move to 14-3 along with MSU.  Since the two Michigan schools play each other in their mutual finale that means that the league champion will be no worse than 15-5 which mathematically eliminates all but the two of them and Wisconsin.  
• Illinois might not win again.  Their schedule ended up being insanely backloaded.  Four of their last five league games are against the top-4 teams in the league.  That is rough.  
• Wisconsin's league title chances are slim and none and they will be mathematically eliminated without a win in East Lansing on Sunday.  
• Oregon might not lose again and they've already won four straight.  What a streaky season.  They started out 16-3/5-3 and at one point they were ranked in the top-10 nationally.  Then they lost five straight, fell out of the rankings altogether, and at one point they weren't even in the top-10 in the league.  The five-straight losses included understandable and reasonably close losses in Michigan but also a home loss to Nebraska, a beatdown in Westwood, and a loss to Minnesota.  Now they've won four straight including in Madison and with three very winnable games remaining they look likely to finish 12-8.  
• Ohio State and Nebraska seem to be the two B1G teams closest to the NCAA cut-line so their game in Columbus on Tuesday will mean a lot for both teams.  Unfortunately nobody will see it because it is on Peacock.  
• Rutgers has a rough final stretch.  

Cut lines:
League Title:
Purdue, Maryland, and UCLA are mathematically alive but practically eliminated as they each have six losses so they would need:

• To win out and finish 14-6, and
• Michigan to beat MSU in East Lansing but otherwise lose out to finish 14-6, and
• Michigan State to lose out and finish 14-6.  

Wisconsin has a small but pretty unrealistic chance.  We'll look closer at that if they manage to win in East Lansing.  

Top-4 (Double-bye into Friday of the BTT):
Purdue, Maryland, and UCLA are all tied for the last two double-byes.  Additionally, Wisconsin is only one game ahead of them and Illinois is 1.5 games behind them.  PU, UMD, and UCLA will get the last two double-byes and the first single-bye unless UW finishes REALLY poorly or IL finishes REALLY well.  

Top-9 (Single-bye into Thursday of the BTT):
Right now Indiana would get the last double-bye but they are only a game behind Ore, 1/2 game ahead of tOSU, and one game ahead of both RU and UNL.  There are also games remaining between:

• IU at Ore on 3/4
• UNL at tOSU on 3/4
• tOSU at IU on 3/8

This is very much in flux.  

Top-15 (invite to the BTT):
Northwestern, Minnesota, Southern California, and Iowa are all tied for the last three spots in the BTT.  They are also only one game behind RU/UNL so all of these teams are in the mix to make or miss the BTT.  Additionally, there are games remaining between:

• IA at NU on 2/28
• MN at UNL on 3/1
• IA at UNL on 3/9
• MN at RU on 3/9

This is also very much in flux.  

[ELA]

They keep treating not making the BTT like European soccer relegation.  Sorry, no.  Those fan bases are done with this year.  Maybe they get 2 more meaningless games, with both players and coaches having eyes on the portal.  Soccer relegation keeps the bottom interesting, not because of what happens this year, but because it impacts them next year.

If they 3 schools who missed the Big Ten went to the MAC next year, then you'd have something.

I put out my 18 team proposal earlier, and the fact its 15 and not 16, is weird, if you aren't allowing everyone.  My only other thought at 15 is to give #9 a bye as well, because they did their math and figured #9 is going to be a bad team squarely on the bubble who can't help themselves by beating the #16 team, but can end their chances by losing to them

[medinabuckeye1]

I put out my 18 team proposal earlier, and the fact its 15 and not 16, is weird, if you aren't allowing everyone.  My only other thought at 15 is to give #9 a bye as well, because they did their math and figured #9 is going to be a bad team squarely on the bubble who can't help themselves by beating the #16 team, but can end their chances by losing to them

I'm totally guessing but I don't *THINK* this is it for a few reasons:

• I think generally that #9 is a bubble team but that they could definitely USE the extra win that would come from beating #16.  Yes, it isn't a "great" win but it is a neutral site win.  Right now #16 is the last of NU/MN/USC/IA so a neutral site win over them for #9 Indiana would help the Hoosiers.  From my perspective as a fan of a team in contention to finish #9, if my Buckeyes do finish #9 I'd rather have that extra game than not because my team needs wins even if they aren't quality wins so I'd rather have a Wednesday game in which my team is favored than start with a Thursday game in which my team is the dog.  
• They scheduled it with the three games on Wednesday being a mega-session, three-game ticket of games starting at 3:30, ~6pm, and 8:30.  I *THINK* they didn't want to absorb the costs of clearing/cleaning the arena between a two-game early session and a two-game late session.  Additionally, they may have been concerned about the turnaround time to get the arena ready because depending on where the BTT is played, there might will be an NBA game in that arena on Tuesday night.  Presumably the janitorial staff isn't staying overnight Tuesday/Wednesday so they have to come in and clean on Wednesday which might make it tough to get the floor changed out and the arena prepped for a noon game.  By knocking it down to 15 teams they bought themselves 3.5 hours.  

[bayareabadger]

They keep treating not making the BTT like European soccer relegation.  Sorry, no.  Those fan bases are done with this year.  Maybe they get 2 more meaningless games, with both players and coaches having eyes on the portal.  Soccer relegation keeps the bottom interesting, not because of what happens this year, but because it impacts them next year.

If they 3 schools who missed the Big Ten went to the MAC next year, then you'd have something.

I put out my 18 team proposal earlier, and the fact its 15 and not 16, is weird, if you aren't allowing everyone.  My only other thought at 15 is to give #9 a bye as well, because they did their math and figured #9 is going to be a bad team squarely on the bubble who can't help themselves by beating the #16 team, but can end their chances by losing to them

I read they just voted on that and 15 won. Which is weird.

[medinabuckeye1]

I read they just voted on that and 15 won. Which is weird.

It does seem weird.  As @ELA pointed out 16 would seem to make more sense.  However, if they followed their usual time structure, the Wednesday games would be:

• Noon:  #9 vs #16, winner vs #8 same time Thursday
• 2:30pm:  #12 vs #13, winner vs #5 same time Thursday
• 6:30pm:  #10 vs #15, winner vs #7 same time Thursday
• 9pm:  #11 vs #14, winner vs #6 same time Thursday

I don't know.  Maybe they just figured that selling tickets to watch mediocre BB teams play bad BB teams on a weekday during the work day would be nigh on to impossible and basically nobody is going to watch on TV either so why bother?  

On Thursday the #5-8 seeds are involved so there should be at least one Tournament team in each game but some of those Wednesday games are just plain bad.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Working from something @ELA suggested a while back, I think Sunday games the final weekend should either be eliminated or replaced with Sat/Sun option games where none of the teams mathematically in contention for a bottom-4 finish can play on Sunday then the B1G Conference Tournament should be structured as follows:

Monday:

• #17 at #16
• #18 at #15

Tuesday , travel day.

Wednesday:

• #16/17 at #1
• #15/18 at #2
• #14 at #3
• #13 at #4
• #12 at #5
• #11 at #6
• #10 at #7
• #9 at #8

Thursday, travel day

Friday, neutral site Tournament commences:

• #1/16/17 vs #8/9
• #2/15/18 vs #7/10
• #3/14 vs #6/11
• #4/13 vs #5/12

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan wins every game within one possessions, and loses every game decided comfortably.

Over Michigan's last 10 games they are 8-2, with a regulation +/- of -18.  That's almost impossible to do.  Their 2 losses are by 27 to Purdue and by 13 to MSU.  And their 8 wins were all by 4 points or less.

And the trend continued with Michigan beating Rutgers at home last night by . . . two points.  

This Michigan team is just really strange.  Their last win by more than four points was 13 games and six weeks ago at home over last place Washington by 16.  Since then:

• L by 3 in OT at Minnesota
• W by 4 in OT vs Northwestern, cumulative regulation +/- 0
• L by 27 at Purdue, -27
• W by 4 vs PSU, -23
• W by 3 at Rutgers, -20
• W by 4 vs Oregon, -16
• W by 3 at Indiana, -13
• W by 2 vs Purdue, -11
• W by 3 at tOSU, -8
• L by 13 vs MSU, -21
• W by 3 at UNL, -18
• W by 2 vs RU, -16

So in their last 12 games Michigan is 9-3 but has a scoring differential that is not only negative but by a nontrivial amount.  That is weird and, as @ELA pointed out, almost impossible to do.  

Thank you, @ELA for pointing this out.  When Ohio State played Michigan a while back I couldn't figure out why the Buckeyes were favored.  I looked at the records and Michigan has a much better record but obviously the computers hate them because they keep winning close. 

[bayareabadger]

Horseshoes up butts up in the Mitten this week.