2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

That's a fair criticism. I'll put it this way: I have never felt comfortable that Wisconsin will necessarily win a game under the Gard regime, until very late in that particular game, no matter the quality of opponent. Never. Losing a 15-point, second half lead, at home, against a good, but not great Oregon team is entirely consistent with what I expect. That feels like a different kind of a loss than coming out flat on the road against a middling team (Bo Ryan losses).

Of course all coaches lose games it feels like they should win. And maybe its just recency bias, or maybe I just don't watch enough basketball to have a solid base to work from, but it has always felt like Gard's teams are just a little more unpredictable than Bo Ryan or Dick Bennett teams. Bennett just coached ugly, defensive basketball--nearly all of those games were close, boring, and could go either way.

There's an optimistic way to think about it, too. Wisconsin feels like it rarely has the really talented wunderkinds that shinier athletic programs tend to attract, and yet Gard has them much further up the conference table than the "experts" tend to predict. Maybe the reason they sometimes lose games like this is they aren't, player for player, that much better than anyone else, they are just better coached. But the coach doesn't actually control the floor, he just makes suggestions.

I don't know--but my gut feeling (as unprovable and logically unsound as it may be) is that Gard's teams have at least one--and often more--of these head shakers a year--and they are consistently bigger head shakers than Bo Ryan had.

I was also on campus when the Badgers made their first NCAA tournament in forever, so I still don't take tournament appearances for granted. But I would like to see this team win a couple in the tournament this time around. And I still hold my breath every time I watch or check the scoreboard.

I think that’s fair, and it’s tough because there are so many variables.

-Bo was an insanely good coach who set a tone with force of personality better than almost anyone else
-the sport has changed a bunch off the court in a way that is gonna make life somewhat different for schools like Wisconsin
-schedules have literally changed, so you play more in different conference games
-the sport has changed on the court in the sense that everyone shoots a lot more and it creates more variability

I know Gard isn’t as good a coach as Bo, and he’s a different kind than Bennett. I think he’s good, but I don’t yet have a great sense of if there’s a theme to flaws. And it’s hard to compare to his mentor because we never really go back and do an precise accounting of his failings. Either way, I am mad about that game and interested to see how they bounce back.

[ELA]

Massey Composite Rankings - 49 computers (last week in parentheses)

• Auburn (1)
• Duke (2)
• Florida (3)
• Houston (5)
• Alabama (4)
• Tennessee (6)
• MICHIGAN STATE (15)
• Iowa State (7)
• St. John's (13)
• WISCONSIN (8)
• Texas Tech (11)
• MARYLAND (14)
• Texas A&M (10)
• Missouri (16)
• Kentucky (18)
• MICHIGAN (12)
• PURDUE (9)
• Clemson (22)
• Arizona (17)
• Saint Mary's (-)
• Louisville (21)
• Gonzaga (23)
• Kansas (19)
• Mississippi State (24)
• Ole Miss (20)

• 26. UCLA (27)
• 28. Oregon (33)
• 29. Illinois (24)
• 39. Ohio State (34)
• 46. Nebraska (39)
• 52. Indiana (53)
• 63. USC (59)
• 64. Northwestern (68)
• 67. Iowa (64)
• 73. Penn State (82)
• 75. Rutgers (78)
• 83. Minnesota (85)
• 95. Washington (92)

[medinabuckeye1]

Is it just basketball, or is it just a Greg Gard coached team?

I think he's done a great job this year, and he's done a very good job since taking over the program, but this kind of loss is a given for his teams. You just know it's lurking out there--including very likely during the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney...

On the other hand, I wish I had the same view of Fickell's football program (so far) as I do of Gard's basketball program.

I always find this logic a bit winding and hard to pin down.

I watched a lot of Bo Ryan teams. And through the years, they had plenty of losses that pissed me off a great deal. Is this kind of loss special to Greg Gard, but unheard of with Bo or Dick Bennett? I’m not sure, but I’m skeptical, in part because “this kind of loss” is not really well defined.

If you are here looking for an outsider perspective, it follows.  If not and you just want to keep this an inter-Badger discussion, ignore what follows and carry on:
First off, Wisconsin under Bennett, Bo, and now Gard has so consistently overachieved that at some point you have to just adjust your expectations and not call it overachieving anymore.  That is glowing praise, not any kind of criticism.  

Second, if you look at preseason picks or for that matter at the view in early-January Wisconsin absolutely would have been expected to lose to an Oregon team that was (IIRC) top-10 at one point.  So this is a disappointing loss NOW, but looked at from Nov/Dec/Jan, this isn't a bad loss at all.  

Third, I think this just fits with the randomness that is endemic to the sport at this point.  Wisconsin is now 11-5 and Oregon is now 9-8 so the Badgers lost to a team 2.5 games behind them.  My own team is 7-10 and just lost at home to a terrible 5-11 Northwestern squad that is 1.5 games behind them.  Looking further:

• 13-3 first place MSU lost at home to Indiana which is 7-9 so 6 games behind them.  
• 13-3 first place Michigan lost to a Minnesota team that is 6-10 so 7 games behind them.  
• 11-5 Maryland is tied with Wisconsin.  One of their losses was to Purdue but the other four were to the same Oregon team that just beat Wisconsin, an Ohio State team that is 4.5 games behind you two, a Northwestern team that is 6 games behind you two, and a Washington team that is 7 games behind you two.  

My point is that, unless I am missing something, "this kind of loss" not even remotely exclusive to Wisconsin.  

[medinabuckeye1]

-the sport has changed on the court in the sense that everyone shoots a lot more and it creates more variability

THIS!

My own team:

• Ohio State shot ~50% from three and won AT Purdue
• Ohio State shot <20% from three and lost AT HOME to Northwestern

These results simply don't make sense.  Ohio State (7-10) is a middling to slightly below middling B1G team.  They shouldn't have won at 11-6 Purdue and they shouldn't have lost at home to 5-11 Northwestern but they live and die by the three.  On a good night, they can take out Purdue in West Lafayette and on a bad night they can lose badly to Northwestern in Columbus.  

I don't mean to take credit away from Northwestern nor to give Purdue a free pass but I honestly don't think either of those results had much to do with what Purdue/Northwestern did or didn't do.  You simply can't defend the whole court and aggressively defending long-range shots has it's own inherent dangers:  During Ohio State's game against Michigan there was a possession during which Ohio State was down two and looking to tie or take the lead.  Mobley (our freshman sharpshooter) launched a shot from about the third row and the Michigan defender ran in late to try to challenge it.  The defender didn't get there in time to alter the shot (which missed) but he jumped and came down on Mobley and was thus called for a foul about 50' from the hoop.  Mobley then walked to the line and hit three-straight free throws to take the lead.  

FWIW:  In the Buckeyes' game against Wisconsin they hit ~30% of their threes which is a bit under their season average of 36.9% and lost in Madison by two.  If the Buckeyes had hit close to 50% like they did against Purdue they probably would have won.  If they had hit <20% like they did against Northwestern, Wisconsin would have blown them out.  I really don't think that there is a lot Wisconsin could do about that either way.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at the standings, some pretty clear groups have emerged:

• The two Michigan schools are tied for first then there is a 2-game gap, then
• UMD and UW are tied for 3/4 only 1/2 game ahead of UCLA and Purdue.  Then a 2-game gap, then
• IL and Ore are tied for 7/8 then a 1.5 game gap, then
• IU is alone in 9th at 7-9 but only 1/2 game ahead of UNL/tOSU/RU which, in turn, are only 1/2 game ahead of MN/USC/IA all tied for 13/14/15 then a 1-game gap, then
• Northwestern is alone in 16th at 5-11 only 1/2 game ahead of 5-12 PSU which, in turn, is only 1/2 game ahead of UDub at 4-12.  

For the Tournament:

• Top-4 get a double-bye into Friday
• 4-9 get a single bye into Thursday
• 10-15 play Wednesday
• 16-18 get left out 

The cut-lines currently:
Maryland and Wisconsin are on the right side of the top-4 cut line currently but only by 1/2 game over UCLA and Purdue so those four will battle it out for the last two double-byes after the Michigan Schools.  

Indiana is on the right side of the top-9 cut line currently but only by 1/2 game over Nebraska, Ohio State, and Rutgers and only by one game over Minnesota, Iowa, and Southern California so all seven of those teams are in the mix for the last single bye.  

Minnesota, Iowa, and Southern Cal are currently tied for the last three spots in the BTT but they are only half a game behind UNL/tOSU/RU and only a game ahead of Northwestern so all of those teams are in the mix there.  


If the tournament started today:

• MSU 13-3 (wins tie because they beat Michigan but the two have another game)
• Michigan 13-3
• Maryland 11-5 (wins tie because they beat UW)
• Wisconsin 11-5
• tbd UCLA/Purdue 11-6 (they play Friday in West Lafayette)
• tbd UCLA/Purdue 11-6
• Illinois 9-8 (wins tie because they beat Oregon)
• Oregon 9-8
• Indiana 7-9
• tOSU/RU/UNL* 7-10
• tOSU/RU/UNL 7-10
• tOSU/RU/UNL 7-10
• Minnesota #6-10
• USC 6-10
• Iowa 6-10
• Northwestern 5-11
• Penn State 5-12
• Washington 4-12

*Ohio State, Rutgers, and Nebraska are all 7-10.  Currently they are all 1-1 against each other:

• Ohio State beat Rutgers in Columbus
• Rutgers beat Nebraska in Lincoln
• Nebraska beat Ohio State in Lincoln

There is one game remaining amongst them, Nebraska is at Ohio State on 3/4.  


#Minneosta, USC, and Iowa are all 6-10.  Currently they are:

• 2-0 Minnesota won at USC and at Iowa
• 1-1 USC lost to MN and beat Iowa both at home
• 0-2 Iowa lost at home to MN and at USC

So the matchups would be, Wednesday, March 12, Peacock:

• #10 tOSU/RU/UNL vs #15 Iowa, 6pm
• #11 tOSU/RU/UNL vs #14 USC, 830
• #12 tOSU/RU/UNL vs #13 Minnesota, 330

Thursday, March 13, BTN:

• #5 PU/UCLA vs tOSU/RU/UNL/MN, 230
• #6 PU/UCLA vs tOSU/RU/UNL/USC, 9pm
• #7 Illinois vs tOSU/RU/UNL/IA, 630
• #8 Oregon vs #9 Indiana, noon

Friday, March 14, BTN:

• #1 Michigan State vs Ore/IU, noon
• #2 Michigan vs IL/tOSU/RU/UNL/IA, 630
• #3 Maryland vs PU/UCLA/tOSU/RU/UNL/USC, 9pm
• #4 Wisconsin vs PU/UCLA/tOSU/RU/UNL/MN, 230

Saturday, March 15, CBS:

• MSU/ORE/IU vs UW/PU/UCLA/tOSU/RU/UNL/MN, 1pm
• M/IL/tOSU/RU/UNL/IA vs UMD/PU/UCLA/tOSU/RU/UNL/MN, 330

Sunday, March 16, CBS:

• CG at 330

[ELA]

I assume MSU will beat Maryland, Wisconsin and UM, and then lose for no reason at Iowa

[ELA]

THIS!

My own team:

• Ohio State shot ~50% from three and won AT Purdue
• Ohio State shot <20% from three and lost AT HOME to Northwestern

These results simply don't make sense.  Ohio State (7-10) is a middling to slightly below middling B1G team.  They shouldn't have won at 11-6 Purdue and they shouldn't have lost at home to 5-11 Northwestern but they live and die by the three.  On a good night, they can take out Purdue in West Lafayette and on a bad night they can lose badly to Northwestern in Columbus. 

I don't mean to take credit away from Northwestern nor to give Purdue a free pass but I honestly don't think either of those results had much to do with what Purdue/Northwestern did or didn't do.  You simply can't defend the whole court and aggressively defending long-range shots has it's own inherent dangers:  During Ohio State's game against Michigan there was a possession during which Ohio State was down two and looking to tie or take the lead.  Mobley (our freshman sharpshooter) launched a shot from about the third row and the Michigan defender ran in late to try to challenge it.  The defender didn't get there in time to alter the shot (which missed) but he jumped and came down on Mobley and was thus called for a foul about 50' from the hoop.  Mobley then walked to the line and hit three-straight free throws to take the lead. 

FWIW:  In the Buckeyes' game against Wisconsin they hit ~30% of their threes which is a bit under their season average of 36.9% and lost in Madison by two.  If the Buckeyes had hit close to 50% like they did against Purdue they probably would have won.  If they had hit <20% like they did against Northwestern, Wisconsin would have blown them out.  I really don't think that there is a lot Wisconsin could do about that either way. 

I blame Chirs Holtman

[FearlessF]

check Michigan's 3-point percentage in their win at Nebraska last night

[ELA]

check Michigan's 3-point percentage in their win at Nebraska last night

Michigan wins every game within one possessions, and loses every game decided comfortably.

Over Michigan's last 10 games they are 8-2, with a regulation +/- of -18.  That's almost impossible to do.  Their 2 losses are by 27 to Purdue and by 13 to MSU.  And their 8 wins were all by 4 points or less.

[FearlessF]

Well, you don't have to shoot a high percentage when the opponent doesn't score 

[ELA]

Well, you don't have to shoot a high percentage when the opponent doesn't score

Iowa football would kill for the kind of points your guys put up last night

[bayareabadger]

Badgers smush the Huskies, but do so with a starter tweaking his lower leg. 

Next up, MSU on the road. 

[847badgerfan]

Badgers smush the Huskies, but do so with a starter tweaking his lower leg.

Next up, MSU on the road.

That happened long ago. He's been playing on it. Now is the time to let him sit and play McGee more.

[FearlessF]

Iowa football would kill for the kind of points your guys put up last night

Iowa basketball could have used a punter last night