Lets talk B1G Championship and BTT:
All teams have played 14-16 games and thus all have 4-6 remaining.
Even though Michigan is in first, this discussion needs to start with MSU because of their schedule. It appears that they didn't make the appropriate sacrifices to the schedule gods because their current stretch is BRUTAL:
- They started this month on a West coast road swing with a loss at USC (2/1) then
- A loss at 6th place UCLA (2/4)
- Last Tuesday (2/13) they played a Hoosier squad that was absolutely desperate not to see Izzo break Knight's record against them.
- Sat (2/15) they visited seventh place Illinois
- Tonight (2/18) they host third place Purdue
- Friday (2/21) they visit 1st place Michigan
- next Wednesday (2/26) they visit 5th place Maryland
When they finish that it doesn't get much easier. They finish with vs UW, at IA, and vs M.
Mathematically:
Michigan (12-2) and Michigan State (11-3) still have two games against each other so mathematically at least one of them will finish at least 13-7. Thus, all teams with eight or more losses are eliminated and the best that the 9-7 Illini could do would be a tie. The mathematical contenders:
- 12-2 Michigan: vMSU, @UNL, vRU, vIL, vUMD, @MSU
- 11-3 Michigan State: vPU, @M, @UMD, vUW, @IA, vM
- 11-4 Purdue: @MSU, @IU, vUCLA, vRU, @IL
- 10-4 Wisconsin: vIL, vOre, vUdub, @MSU, @MN, vPSU
- 10-5 Maryland: vUSC, vMSU, @PSU, @M, vNU
- 10-5 UCLA: vMN, vtOSU, @PU, @NU, vUSC
- 9-7 Illinois: @UW, vDook-OOC, vIA, @M, vPU
Realistically, Illinois is out while UMD and UCLA need a LOT of help. They would need to win out AND for the Wolverines to finish no better than 3-3.
Purdue and Wisconsin are in a bit better shape since they only need two Michigan losses but they are also both playing in East Lansing and neither of them get a shot at Michigan themselves (Purdue split a H&H, UW lost at home in their only meeting).
Michigan State obviously controls their own destiny but, as noted above, they are finishing the season on a brutally difficult stretch.
What about the first place Wolverines. As I see it, their schedule is interesting. The season finale in East Lansing is really the only game they "should" lose but the visit from Rutgers is really the only thing resembling a "gimmie". Other than those two, they have four games that they probably *SHOULD* win but not easily. If I had to guess right now I'd go 4-2 or 5-1 to finish 17-3 or 16-4.
