2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[FearlessF]

Ed Zachery why I don't understand youse guy's fascination with assigning tiers

[medinabuckeye1]

The league title race:

• 11-2 Michigan
• 11-3 Purdue
• 10-3 Michigan State
• 9-4 Wisconsin
• 9-5 UCLA
• 8-5 Maryland

Technically the six-loss Illini, the seven loss Trojans, Cornhuskers, and Buckeyes, and the eight-loss Ducks, Hoosiers, Scarlet Knights, and Hawkeyes are all still in the race.  As a practical matter I believe that they and likely Maryland and UCLA are beyond hopeless.  

Technically:
MSU and Michigan have two games remaining against each other (2/21 in AA, 3/9 in EL).  They can't both lose so the mathematical minimum for a league title is 12-8 and even that would require a lot of unlikely results.  

Practically:
As noted in a previous thread, Michigan already lost to a bad (4-9) Minnesota team and they are hardly alone as the Boilermakers and Spartans have a combined four losses to sub .500 teams.  Michigan's remaining schedule is interesting.  They have three road games (tOSU, UNL, MSU) and four home games (MSU, RU, IL, UMD).  I feel pretty strongly that they should beat Rutgers at home but honestly, how confident do you feel about the result of any of the rest of those games (either positive or negative)?  

Purdue split with Michigan (W in WL in January, L in AA yesterday) and they are only 1/2 game behind the Wolverines.  


Michigan State hasn't played Michigan nor Purdue nor Wisconsin yet.  They definitely have the toughest remaining schedule but that also means that they have the most control (other that Michigan whose control is based on being ahead).  If MSU were to win out they'd finish 17-3 and win the title outright as:

• Michigan would have at least four losses (2 currently plus two more to MSU)
• Purdue would have at least four losses (3 currently plus one more to MSU)
• Wisconsin would have at least five losses (4 currently plus one more to MSU).  

[MarqHusker]

Ed Zachery why I don't understand youse guy's fascination with assigning tiers

this.  I always found it more complicated and useless than whatever the passer rating formula is.

[medinabuckeye1]

In the new, 18-team format:

• 1-4 get a double-bye into the Friday games
• 5-9 get a bye into the Thursday games
• 10-15 get into the Tournament playing on Wednesday
• 16-18 get left out

Current status of cut-lines there:
As of this morning (before the Thursday, February 13 games):
Michigan, Purdue, MSU, and Wisconsin would get the four double-byes.  

Wisconsin is 0.5 games ahead of UCLA for the last double-bye.  Maryland and Illinois are also in the mix.  

UCLA, UMD, IL, tOSU, and either USC or UNL would get the single bye into the Thursday games.  
USC and UNL are tied for the last bye and they are only 1/2 game behind tOSU and 1/2 game ahead of Oregon and Indiana so this is very much in flux.  

USC/UNL, Oregon, IU, IA, RU, and MN would get into the Tournament.  
Minnesota is only 1/2 game ahead of NU for the last spot with UDub only one game out.  

So as of right now:

• Michigan
• Purdue
• Michigan State
• Wisconsin
• UCLA
• Maryland
• Illinois
• Ohio State
• USC or UNL
• USC/UNL
• Oregon or Indiana
• Ore/IU
• Iowa
• Rutgers
• Minnesota
• Northwestern
• Washington
• Penn State

So if the Tournament started now:
Wednesday:

• #10 USC/UNL vs #15 Minnesota
• #11 ORE/IU vs #14 Rutgers
• #12 ORE/IU vs #13 Iowa

Thursday:

• #5 UCLA vs Ore/IU/IA
• #6 Maryland vs Ore/IU/RU
• #7 Illinois vs USC/UNL/MN
• #8 Ohio State vs #9 USC/UNL

Friday:

• #1 Michigan vs tOSU/USC/UNL
• #2 Purdue vs IL/USC/UNL/MN
• #3 Michigan State vs UMD/Ore/IU/RU
• #4 Wisconsin vs UCLA/Ore/IU/IA

[bayareabadger]

I tend to think minute loads are a bit overrated as a complaint, but Lordy Smith for Purdue is playing a ton. 

Since late Nov, he’s been off the court for 55 minutes in 19 games. 

[ELA]

I tend to think minute loads are a bit overrated as a complaint, but Lordy Smith for Purdue is playing a ton.

Since late Nov, he’s been off the court for 55 minutes in 19 games.

I know it's a 2 man NPOTY race between Flagg and Broome, but Smith would probably be #3 right now

[medinabuckeye1]

What do you guys who follow CBB think Ohio State needs to make the Tournament?  

Lunardi currently has the Buckeyes as a #9 seed (playing UCONN in Raleigh with the Gators on tap should the Buckeyes take out the Huskies).  

The Buckeyes are 15-10/7-7 with a pretty respectable SoS.  

The Buckeyes are 8th in the B1G but there is a BIG gap between them and #7:  The Buckeyes are 1.5 games behind #7 Illinois.  

I'm thinking that a 3-3 finish to end up 18-13/10-10 is probably sufficient to put them in a situation in Indianapolis where they don't need any miracles, they just need to avoid a bad loss.  

They have six games remaining:  Three at home and three on the road.  They are:

• vs M this Sunday
• vs NU next Thursday
• @UCLA next Sunday, 2/23
• @USC on 2/26
• vs UNL on 3/4
• @IU on 3/8

As I try to assess the relative difficulty of those games here is what I get:
Vs Northwestern and Vs Nebraska are probably the most likely wins because they are home games, Northwestern sucks, and Nebraska is decent but not great.  

At UCLA is probably the toughest because even if the Bruins aren't quite as good as the Wolverines, the UCLA game is on the West Coast while the Michigan game is at home.  

At USC is a little bit of a wildcard.  In theory it is a tough road game but also note that there is a lot more travel involved for the Trojans than the Buckeyes.  The Buckeyes prior game is across LA on Sunday while USC's prior game is across the country (at Rutgers) on Sunday.  In theory that might actually be an advantage for the Buckeyes.  

The real wildcard, IMHO, is the Indiana game.  I just have no idea what to expect.  Apparently Woodson is done and that is the last game of the season so I could see anything from:

Optimistic (for tOSU):
By the time we get there the Hoosiers are distracted, disinterested, looking at their transfer options, and completely listless.  Ie, this *COULD* be the easiest remaining game for tOSU, even easier than NU at home.  OR

Pessimistic (for tOSU):
The Hoosiers REALLY rally around their coach, fighting for each other with an "Us vs World" mentality and all of a sudden the Hoosiers are the toughest game tOSU could possibly face.  

[847badgerfan]

I think OSU has to get to 20 to get in. 4-2 and then a win in the B1G tourney.

The B1G is not very respected this season.

[bayareabadger]

My usual math is that if you came get to 5 games above .500, you should be OK as a power five school, unless the conference is a real shit show or you just went English major science classes for non-conference. 

For OSU, that would be 19-14 at worse? You’ll sweat at 18-14. 

It’s hard to totally read the rest of the schedule because Ohio State is pretty decent and the rest of those teams are all some degree of talented or squirrely or good. Granted, the buckeyes are pretty squirrely themselves

[bayareabadger]

I’m feeling like Wisconsin probably doesn’t win in West Lafayette. Part of this is because Smith is just an absolute monster for mid range, in Wisconsin tends to funnel people into somewhat open shops there.

Plus Purdue is good and winning. There is always a pain in the ass.

[ELA]

What do you guys who follow CBB think Ohio State needs to make the Tournament? 

Torvik projects OSU to go 4-2, only losing the LA swing, which projects to an 8 seed.

The closest is @Indiana (51%).  If you flip that, they are still in and drop to a 9 seed.

Next is Michigan (53%).  If you also flip that, they are still in, as a 10 seed, 4 spots out of even going to Dayton.

Now that doesn't factor in the BTT.  9-11 right now would track for 9th place, which projects to play #8 USC.  If you add that as a loss, then OSU plummets all the way to 1st team out.

So I think they need some combination of 3 wins.  Either 3-3 down the stretch or 2-4 with a BTT win.

[847badgerfan]

I’m feeling like Wisconsin probably doesn’t win in West Lafayette. Part of this is because Smith is just an absolute monster for mid range, in Wisconsin tends to funnel people into somewhat open shops there.

Plus Purdue is good and winning. There is always a pain in the ass.

And they are pissed off, coming in from a loss.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think OSU has to get to 20 to get in. 4-2 and then a win in the B1G tourney.

The B1G is not very respected this season.

They are 15-10/7-7 now.  If they go 4-2 then 1-1 that gets them to 20-13.  I'd be happy but I think that is a LOT more than they "need" to simply make the Tournament.  

Three things to consider:

• Per BPI, tOSU's SoS is #13 nationally.  
• Their best wins are on the ROAD against a Purdue team currently projected as a #2 seed and a blowout on a neutral court over a Kentucky team projected to be a #3 seed.  Those aren't enough to get a #1 seed but you'd be hard pressed to find a bubble team with better wins.  
• Their worst loss is at home (in OT) to an Indiana team currently on the bubble.  Again, that isn't great but you'd be hard pressed to find a bubble team with a better worst loss.  

I'm thinking more like this:

My usual math is that if you came get to 5 games above .500, you should be OK as a power five school, unless the conference is a real shit show or you just went English major science classes for non-conference.

For OSU, that would be 19-14 at worse? You’ll sweat at 18-14.

It’s hard to totally read the rest of the schedule because Ohio State is pretty decent and the rest of those teams are all some degree of talented or squirrely or good. Granted, the buckeyes are pretty squirrely themselves

Or this:

Torvik projects OSU to go 4-2, only losing the LA swing, which projects to an 8 seed.

The closest is @Indiana (51%).  If you flip that, they are still in and drop to a 9 seed.

Next is Michigan (53%).  If you also flip that, they are still in, as a 10 seed, 4 spots out of even going to Dayton.

Now that doesn't factor in the BTT.  9-11 right now would track for 9th place, which projects to play #8 USC.  If you add that as a loss, then OSU plummets all the way to 1st team out.

So I think they need some combination of 3 wins.  Either 3-3 down the stretch or 2-4 with a BTT win.

Thank you @847badgerfan , @bayareabadger , and @ELA for addressing my question.  I'm just checking myself making sure I'm not viewing things through scarlet glasses.  

I agree with ELA's three wins assessment with the caveat that they don't take a terribly bad loss in Indianapolis.  If they finish 18-13/10-10 that probably isn't a concern because they are likely the #8, or #9 seed.  Either way, you don't play until Thursday and the team on the other side of the court is a similar, borderline tournament team.  Where I think that three wins might not be enough is if they finished 18-13/10-10 and somehow dropped to the #10 seed where they'd have to play in Indianapolis on Wednesday against the #15.  Minnesota is currently the #15 B1G team and I think that 18-14 overall with an embarrassing early BTT loss to a very bad Minnesota team would likely be a good way to host some NIT games.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Oh, I almost forgot my original reason for asking the question which was to determine exactly how important this weekend's game against the Wolverines is.  

My take is that it is important as a rivalry game and it would obviously be great to knock the Wolverines out of first in the B1G but in as far as tOSU's NCAA prospects, this game is not terribly critical.  

Winning would be great.  Assuming that the Buckeyes also win their home game against Northwestern next Thursday (they'll be huge favorites) then they'd likely only need to win one of their last four OR win a BTT game to make it.  

Losing narrows the path but there are still plenty of ways to get there that don't involve miracles.