2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Bracketology per Lunardi/ESPN:

• #2 Purdue
• #3 Michigan State
• #4 Oregon
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Wisconsin
• #5 Michigan
• #7 UCLA
• #7 Maryland
• #11 (play in) Ohio State

B1G on the bubble:

• Ohio State is the fourth-to-last team in
• Indiana is the second team out
• Nebraska is the fifth team out

So if the B1G Tournament started today, it looks like tOSU, IU, and UNL would all be playing for a chance at the big dance.  The rest of the league would either be safely in and just playing for seeding or clearly out and only able to make it in with a B1G Championship although it is possible that NU, PSU, or IA could make it with a strong performance that didn't quite win the whole thing.  

[medinabuckeye1]

• #2 Purdue
• #3 Michigan State
• #4 Oregon
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Wisconsin
• #5 Michigan
• #7 UCLA
• #7 Maryland
• #11 (play in) Ohio State

FWIW:  Based on the 39 tournaments since expansion (1985-2024 but no 2020), these seeds should yield:

• 6 teams in the R32
• 3 teams in the S16
• 1 team in the E8
• <1 team in the F4

Here it is by seed:
#11 Ohio State (play-in):

• The Buckeyes would have a 50/50 chance of making the field of 64 then
• a 19.55% or roughly 1 in 5 chance of making the R32 then
• an 8.65% or roughly 1 in 12 chance of making the S16 then
• a 3.21% chance or something like 1 in 30 of making the E8 then 
• a 1.92% or roughly 1 in 50 chance of making the F4 (6 of 156 #11 seeds have made it to the final weekend but NONE have won an F4 game.  

#7's UCLA and Maryland:

• The Terps and Bruins would each have a 61.54% chance of making the R32 then
• a 18.59% chance of making the S16.  It is THIS bad because, assuming they win the 7/10 game they have about a 93% chance of facing a #2 seed in the second round, then
• a 6.41% chance of making the E8, then
• a 1.92% chance or roughly 1 in 50 of making the F4 (3 of 156 #7 seeds have made it to the final weekend) then
• a 0.64% chance of making the NCG and the same for winning because the ONLY #7 seed to make the final, won it.  

#5's Wisconsin and Michigan:

• The Badgers and Wolverines would each have a 64.74% chance of winning the opener, then
• a 34.62% chance of making the S16, then
• a 7.69% chance of making the E8, then a 5.77% chance of making the F4 (4 of 156 #5 seeds have made the final weekend), then
• a 2.56% chance of making it to the NCG (4 of 156 #5 seeds have made the CG), then
• Oddly no #5 has ever won the tournament.  I say oddly because the Tournament has been won once each by a #6, a #7, and even a #8 along with more than once each by #1-4 but never by a #5 seed.  

#4's Oregon and Illinois:

• The Ducks and Illini would each have a 78.85% chance of making the R32, then
• a 47.44% chance of making the S16, then
• a 16.03% chance of making the E8, then
• a 9.62% chance of making the F4 (15 of 156 #4's have made the final weekend), then
• a 2.56% chance of making the NCG (4 of 156), then
• a 1.28% chance of winning the whole thing (2 of 156)

#3 Michigan State:

• The Spartans would have a 85.26% chance of making the R32, then
• a 52.56% chance of making the S16, then
• a 25.64% chance of making the E8, then
• a 10.90% chance of making the F4 (17 of 156), then
• a 7.05% chance of making the NCG, then
• a 2.56% chance of winning the whole thing (4 of 156 #3 seeds)

#2 Purdue:

• The Boilermakers would have a 92.95% chance of making the R32, then
• a 63.46% chance of making the S16, then
• a 44.23% chance of making the E8, then
• a 19.87% chance of making the F4 (31 of 156), then
• a 7.69% chance of making the NCG, then
• a 3.21% chance of winning the whole thing (5 of 156 #2 seeds)

[847badgerfan]

That’s gotta be a weird way to end the season.

In other news, Wisconsin visits the Terps tomorrow. I’m guessing a loss, but interested in how it goes.

Good guess.

[bayareabadger]

Good guess.

It was the third or fourth hardest game left on the schedule. And they competed well. 

obviously have to keep that up, but I’m not feeling terrible about it.

[847badgerfan]

Yep.

Schedule moving forward. Need to have a good month.

[ELA]

Wonder if Brad Underwood will again complain about officiating?

Him and Muss maling their whole brand complaining about officials in post game press conferences is tiresome 

[ELA]

Seems like UCLA figured out whatever was wrong a few weeks ago, they are suddenly rolling again.  Crushed #16 Oregon last night by 26, their 5th straight win

[bayareabadger]

Wonder if Brad Underwood will again complain about officiating?

Him and Muss maling their whole brand complaining about officials in post game press conferences is tiresome

Probably! 

I am kind of impressed with the way they have pivoted that defense. They are one of the very worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers. I would not have expected that five or six years ago.

[ELA]

Every time I want to quit the internet it comes back and totally redeems itself 


https://twitter.com/AssemblyCall/status/1885360452114243952?t=jh4cQmXcLV1f0BaxO77CDQ&s=19

[FearlessF]

[847badgerfan]

Badgers laying an egg in Evanston so far, down 31-25 at the half.

NU is without its best player too.

Need to wake up.

[847badgerfan]

They woke up.

[bayareabadger]

They woke up.

Nice lil road win.

If UW only wins the remaining games where it projects as a big favorite, it would finish 22-9.

[ELA]

I dont think Ive ever seen a defense sag off shooters as much as USC.did today, and MSU couldnt make them pay