Your overall explanation and mindset, I completely agree with and understand what you're saying, where you're coming from and the most likely the reality of the situation. The verbiage used here I nearly completely agree with, especially stating "apparently." From the leaked ESPN reports it sounds like there is. That being said, we don't know for sure which is why I think saying the NCAA has no doubts is premature. I think they likely believe this is the case, but if there were "no doubts" i think the penalty would be harsher right off the bat. With the Tressel situation, there was no doubts (which i'll message you on directly and add some details on personally know on that topic.). I also agree with you that the Big10 is hoping for a natural Michigan loss. I would think the NCAA is more focused on $$ than making decisions, so their part I'm not convinced we know exactly where they stand.
You'll hate/dislike my response here lol. First, this scenario isnt likely. If Washington wins out, they'll be in for sure because either OSU or Michigan will lose, so it's somewhat irrelevant, but I also know that's not exactly your point. Ive asked myself this question and I have different perspectives. Michigan has really not had a game outside Penn State at this point. If Michigan wins out, which you can pretty much guarantee there's no sign stealing during their games that are actually a test, then I'm not sure how you can keep them out or be a different school that has 1 loss and complain that they're in.
Additionally, if I'm a player at say Georgia, Michigan wins out and they aren't allowed in the CFB playoff, I'd love to win my title, but a small part of me would always be pissed we didn't get to settle it on the field and another team that didn't have a loss and technically was the #2 team, wasn't allowed to settle it on the field. (that's assuming Michigan were to win out.)
Again, I'm saying that with UM homer glasses. If this was OSU in the MIchigan scenario, I could still see how UGA players would want it to play out and beat them on the field. I also not saying that's the right way to handle it, but from a player perspective, that's what I would want.
From a coach/fan perspective, if I was a #5 team.. I'd be blowing up the NCAA phone and demanding to know exactly what they have. I'd argue we have a legal right to know and it's damning enough and clear evidence that the line was WAY crossed, I'd want to be in.
Here's the other part of my answer I know you'll dislike lol.. but again, i'm trying to be reasonable and also looking for reasonable people to have honest conversation that are true football fans so that the opposing view helps shape a healthy perspective. Some of the posts here are just far from that.. some are helping do that.
That being said.. keep looping back to the former Purdue coach that came clean to say OSU and Rutgers gave a complete breakdown of Michigan coaches calling plays, what that sign meant and yet the only responses I see are "UM fans are just deflecting because sign sharing is legal and common." I'm really having a tough time wrapping my head around how that is so much more acceptable than Stallions sending guys to games to record the signs. Yes I get it. The in-person thing "breaks the rules." But do we really think that is far worse cheating than other coaching staffs going through video and pairing it with what they learned in person during the game to share it with their rival's future opponent? Is that seriously just ok but Stallions 4th cousin recording on his cell phone is blatantly far worse and disgusting cheating and what the coaches provided is straight ethical and part of the game? If this part weren't a reality, I honestly think I'd see so much of this situation and most of the posters here that UM is simply trying to control the narrative and distract people. But this part of the reality, especially since it was a former Purdue coach that brought it to light and provided proof... this is the part that rubs me the wrong way when so many scream CHEATERS and follow it up with.. yeah this is legal stop deflecting....if any of it is cheating, it should all be cheating.
I appreciate your detailed response.
I still think the NCAA/B1G have no doubt that Connor Stallions committed a violation. Beyond that may be up in the air but if that violation was to the benefit of Michigan in a game THIS year then I don't think it matters.
The Tressel situation was different because the timing was very different. IIRC, that all came out in the spring. I think Tressel ended up fired/resigned over Memorial Day. There was no need to expedite things because we were months from any games being played. In this case, as this was coming out the season was playing out. We are now about three weeks from CFP selections.
The best situation for the NCAA/B1G is, as you put it, a "natural" Michigan loss. That gets them off the hook but the fact that they didn't lose to PSU is highly problematic because they realistically probably aren't going to lose to Maryland and even if they did that wouldn't necessarily knock them out of the CFP. Even after a loss to UMD, if they beat tOSU they'll go to the B1GCG where they'll be a huge favorite and likely finish as a 12-1 B1G Champ. That has probably a 50/50 likelihood of being good for the CFP.
You read that right, "Washington" specifically wasn't my point. In any case, if Michigan gets into the CFP, there will be a "# 5" team that doesn't. No matter the situation and who that #5 team is, they'll be raising holy hell if Michigan is in. My guess, basically just assuming the favorites all win:
- 13-0 B1G Champion Michigan
- 13-0 SEC Champion Georgia
- 13-0 ACC Champion Florida State
- 12-1 P12 Champion Oregon
- 12-1 B12 Champion Texas
- 12-1 P12CG participant Washington
- 11-1 non-Champion Ohio State
- 11-2 SECCG participant Alabama
The exact order could change somewhat but my best guess is that the teams most likely to be harmed (lose out on a CFP spot) are:
- Oregon
- Texas
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Alabama
Also, I'll add this: In the hypothetical where Michigan loses to Maryland then beats tOSU and wins the CG, I think the committee would hold them out if it was even plausibly justifiable and I would completely support that. Why include a team that may ultimately have to vacate the season in lieu of another team?
As far as Michigan not really having a game until Penn State I agree but I also think it doesn't matter. The Ohio State Tattoo thing is a great example. If Tressel had been honest and reported it, it was a fairly minor violation. The kids involved would have probably been suspended three or four games. The first four games of that season were:
- Marhsall, tOSU won 45-7
- Miami, FL, tOSU won 36-24
- OhioU, tOSU won 43-7
- EMU, tOSU won 73-20
As an Ohio State fan I could argue that the Buckeyes obviously would have won the Marshall, OhioU, and EMU games even without those players but that is NOT how these things work. All of those games and the whole rest of that season were vacated. Same applies here, if Michigan cheated then they cheated and the result will be vacated and it doesn't matter that it was a game that they "would have won anyway".
As far as the Rutgers/Ohio State sharing things with Purdue:
First, I love
@betarhoalphadelta 's response. Ok, give both Purdue and Michigan a postseason ban for this year.
Seriously though, I do kinda see what you are seeing if I squint but I just don't think it matters. Coaching staffs share things all the time. As long as those coaching staffs involved obtained those things through permissible means, then I don't see a violation.
As I understand sign stealing (which I know a lot more about now than I did a few weeks ago), I think what my school should have done under the existing rules is:
- Hire Rain Man.
- Teach Rain Man football.
- Have Rain Man watch the opposing sideline during games, he'll use his autistic crazy mental abilities to discern who the hot read is and what the signals mean.
- By about mid-game, Rain Man should have a pretty good idea what plays an opponent is running at least some of the time.
AFAIK, all of that would have been legal.
Michigan fans my rush in here and say: "Well, that is (maybe) what Harbaugh and company thought that they did." That is where I think the video from the FIRST DRIVE of last year's tOSU/Michigan game is pretty damning. Stallions rather obviously knew that Ohio State was passing on a play during Ohio State's first drive of that game. Even Rain Man can't do it that quickly which is the competitive advantage of advance in-person scouting.
The other damning thing for Michigan there is that when Stallions determines that the play is a pass, multiple Michigan coaches and players begin pointing to the sky (indicating pass).
Finally, I'm frankly shocked by the response of the institution. If I were Ono, I'd stay as far away from this as possible. By sticking his head in, he is taking a substantial risk that he is going to end up going down with this thing. Why? Ono's job isn't to win football games. His job is to run a world-class University. If this were my school, I'd feel like the alums that
@ELA talked about. I'd be embarrassed. I want my school to win football games but not at the expense of my degree. I wouldn't want my school to cheat to do it.
Furthermore, as I see it, the fact that the University's institutional response seems to be a thinly veiled and only mildly cleaned up version of
@Mdot21 's response is simply asking for a harsher punishment.
