2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Medina, I don't think wins / losses are going to be a huge +/- on NET ranking at this point.  OSU beating Iowa and Illinois would kick them to mid to upper 40's at best, not the 30's.  The season's results are mostly baked in at this point.

You were a lot closer than I was. Ohio State's 12 point win over Iowa moved them up a grad total of . . . Two spots in the NET. They are now #53, Iowa similarly dropped two spots.

The Illinois game is obviously tougher but carries with it a greater chance for the Buckeyes to improve. Anything but a blowout loss would probably improve tOSU's NET.

That said, Ohio State isn't getting in with a loss to Illinois so the assumed improvement in NET from a close loss wouldn't actually do the team any good.

What would do the Buckeyes some good is a Q1 win over Illinois. The Buckeyes are 3-6 in Q1 and that might sound laughably pathetic to a Purdue fan but Ohio State isn't competing with UCONN and Houston for the top overall seed, we are competing with Indiana State for one of the last four spots. In that competition four Q1 wins is pretty good and five (beat Illinois then play AND beat Nebraska) would be among the best for bubble teams.

The other factor is of course win volume so any semi-final win would help:

• 20-13, 3-7 Q1 with a loss to Illinois.
• 21-13, 4-7 Q1 with a loss to Nebraska.
• 21-13, 4-6 Q1 with a loss to Indiana.
• 22-13, 5-7 Q1 with a win over UNL and a CG loss.
• 22-13, 4-7 Q1 with a win over IU and a CG loss.
• 23-12, auto-bid with a CG win.

It is cruelly ironic that IF the Buckeyes get the auto-bid, they won't need it and if they don't, they might.

[847badgerfan]

Today, I'm taking Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Nebraska.

[FearlessF]

was hoping Penn St would matchup with the Huskers

tired legs

[847badgerfan]

The Mayor will outcoach Woodson today.

[grillrat]

Galloway out for IU is a major loss.  If he was available, I would have put this game at 50/50.  Without him, I'm thinking 10% chance, and that is mostly because IU will have more familiarity with the venue / rims.

[medinabuckeye1]

Galloway out for IU is a major loss.  If he was available, I would have put this game at 50/50.  Without him, I'm thinking 10% chance, and that is mostly because IU will have more familiarity with the venue / rims.

The part that I bolded might seem ridiculous to newbies but we observed here that back in the 11-team era the #6 seed had a miraculous track record.  They almost always beat the #11 on Thursday then went on to upset #3 on Friday.  

Back then the format was:
Thursday:

• #6 vs #11
• #7 vs #10
• #8 vs #9

Friday:

• #1 vs 8/9
• #2 vs 7/10
• #3 vs 6/11
• #4 vs #5

In addition to #6 having a winning record against #3, the #8/9 winner was also surprisingly strong against #1 when one considers that #1 is always a MUCH better team.  For example, Ohio State fans LOVE this clip because it ends in a ridiculous buzzer-beater to beat TTUN but we really shouldn't be all that impressed with it because in that game the Buckeyes were the #1 seed playing the lowly #8 seeded Wolverines.  Late-game heroics are always fun to watch but realistically they shouldn't have been necessary at all.  


The running theory that I think most of us on here subscribe to is something like this:

• Teams in their first game tend to be below peak for various reasons including rust, unfamiliarity, nervousness, etc.  
• Teams tend to peak in their second game as the first game issues have been put to rest and fatigue isn't a major factor yet.  
• Teams in their third game in three days generally show signs of fatigue and therefore tend to be below peak.  
• Teams in their fourth game in four days are EXHAUSTED.  I'm not sure that I can think of a single example of one winning in the BTT.  Part of this, of course, is also due to the fact that any team playing in their fourth game in four days is almost by definition going to be up against a VASTLY superior opponent.  
• I don't think we've ever seen a team make it from Wednesday to the CG so the performance of a team in their fifth game in five days is, at least so far, only a theoretical proposition.  

Our general theory to explain the strongly winning record of #6 over #3 was a few things:

• Second game.  
• The gap between #3 and #6 generally isn't all that large.  For example, this year it is two games, 12-8 vs 10-10.  
• In a conference with 11 teams usually at least one of them is just downright awful (Michigan this year) so typically the #6 seed had a pretty easy go of things in their opener on Thursday which was more-or-less the best of both worlds.  They got to play a real game but they didn't get severely tested and frequently could rest their starters for at least some of the game.  

What makes this all interesting this year is that since neither of the Wednesday winners managed to win yesterday, all of the games today involve a superior team playing their first game against an inferior team playing their second game.  Being in their second game *SHOULD* be an advantage which should offset the superiority/inferiority disparity and contribute to a higher than normal level of upsets.  Today's games:

• #1 Purdue vs #8 Michigan State, Purdue was 7 games better.  
• #2 Illinois vs #10 Ohio State, Illinois was 5 games better.  
• #3 Nebraska vs #6 Indiana, Nebraska was 2 games better.  
• #4 Northwestern vs #5 Wisconsin, Northwestern was 1 game better.  

Nebraska and Northwestern weren't all that much better than their opponents and their opponents are playing in what *SHOULD* be their peak (second) game.  The Spartans and Buckeyes have tougher hills to climb because they aren't quite as good and are playing better opponents but . . .

[MaximumSam]

Teams on their second days have looked dreadful shooting the ball. Sparty the latest

[CatsbyAZ]

Sounds like Holtmann going to Depaul

DePaul is the perfect job for Holtmann to continue his unquestioned mediocrity. Where 20 win seasons might as well be a Sweet 16 run. DePaul hasn't had a tournament appearance since 2004...TWENTY YEARS ago!

[Brutus Buckeye]

I recently discovered a local provider of Donato's Pizza, and am looking forward to the combination of that and some Buckeye basketball later today. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

DePaul is the perfect job for Holtmann to continue his unquestioned mediocrity. Where 20 win seasons might as well be a Sweet 16 run. DePaul hasn't had a tournament appearance since 2004...TWENTY YEARS ago!

[img width=499.997 height=476.996]https://i.imgur.com/EadU1YD.png[/img]

How do you rank the Chicago teams? Is Loyola their top basketball program now, with their infamous March Madness Nun? 

[ELA]

If you like watching a ton of FTs, and starters sitting on the bench in foul trouble, then this Purdue-MSU game is for you.

Prayers out to Lance Jones, who appears to have the core strength of a baby giraffe.  How did Duke let that guy get away?

[Brutus Buckeye]

Purdue's bench has a butt in every chair, but MSU's is like 1/3 empty seats. 

What's up with that?

[medinabuckeye1]

Nine years ago today I watched Wisconsin beat Michigan State in the B1G Tournament Championship Game at the United Center then ate at Harry Carry's before driving home.

We also enjoyed the U505 at the Museum of Science and Industry. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Spartans keeping within striking distance.