2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

If Mackey held more people, Purdue would be up there.

[FearlessF]

time to build while they're still getting football money

[grillrat]

Yet Purdue is 2-7 against him in March.  Which checks out

Hey now, this is a Painter versus Izzo smacktalk.  Get your stats right.

Painter is 2-5 against Izzo in March.

It's actually been an interesting series of runs between these two teams.  When Izzo took over, the series was mixed for the first 5 years, but then they dominated the series until 2006.  The series was somewhat even again from 2007-2011 (Purdue went 6-4), and then MSU dominated the series again for four years (2012-2015).  Since that time though (2016-2024), Purdue has won 11 of 15 (and 8 of the last 9).

IIRC, Izzo has a winning record against every Big Ten school.  I think he currently has a 27-24 record against Purdue (11-7 against Keady, 16-17 against Painter).  Izzo may have a few years left in him, but I am curious to see if Purdue / Painter can even things up before he goes.

(Edit, fixed Izzo record against Keady)

[847badgerfan]

What is Izzo's record against Wisconsin?

[ELA]

What is Izzo's record against Wisconsin?

35-25

[847badgerfan]

35-25

4-0 against Wisconsin in 1999-2000 season alone!

[ELA]

4-0 against Wisconsin in 1999-2000 season alone!

Wisconsin swept him in his first season.  Then Izzo won 12 of 13 from 97-01.  Since 2002 it's been 23-22 MSU

[847badgerfan]

The Badgers weren't very good that season. It was Bennett's first season too. Went to the NIT.

[medinabuckeye1]

I asked about this a few pages back but didn't get any response so I'll ask again:

What are everyone's thoughts on B1G Bubble teams?  

IMHO, there are only two and *MAYBE* three.  At this point I believe that Iowa and Ohio State are bubble teams.  I should define that.  Entering the B1G Tournament I divide the teams in three categories:

• Locks:  These teams will make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the BTT.  They are Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and *MAYBE* Northwestern.  
• Bubble teams:  These are teams that could make the NCAA without winning the BTT but could also miss the NCAA.  They are Iowa, Ohio State, and possibly Northwestern.  
• Teams that need to win the BTT:  These are teams that cannot make the NCAA without winning the BTT.  They are Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan.  

For the three possible bubble teams, my take:

Northwestern:
Their 12-8 league record and 21-10 overall record *SHOULD* be safely in but their computer ranking is barely ahead of tOSU/Iowa and will likely end up behind the tOSU/Iowa winner if they lose their BTT opener, particularly if it is a bad loss.  Northwestern would clearly be in with a win in their BTT opener and I think they'd be fine with a loss to Wisconsin but there is a possibility that they could end up playing Maryland or worse yet Rutgers in their opener and a bad loss to a bad team could possibly keep the Wildcats out.  I doubt it, but I think it is enough of a possibility to be noted here.  

Iowa/Ohio State:
Ohio State has a better overall record by a game.  Iowa has a better league record by a game.  Ohio State has slightly better computer numbers.  They play each other on Thursday at 6:30 and the winner plays Illinois at 6:30 on Friday.  The loser is pretty clearly out.  The winner would be safe with a win over Illinois.  If the winner loses to Illinois then it could be a very close call where things like the MoV of the two B1G Tournament games and the overall strength of the bubble could be decisive.  

[847badgerfan]

I'd rather Wisconsin play Maryland than Rutgers. Then they get Northwestern - and I don't think NU has to win that one to get in. Maybe a 9 or 10 seed, or Dayton??

[ELA]

I still don't think MSU is a lock.  They might get in, but if they lose what is essentially a road game at Minnesota, I don't think they do

[medinabuckeye1]

I still don't think MSU is a lock.  They might get in, but if they lose what is essentially a road game at Minnesota, I don't think they do

With a loss, if you count it as a "league game" MSU would be 10-11/18-14.

That doesn't look like a Tournament team but they are currently #24 NET and #19 KenPom. They are also 10-0 in Q3 and Q4 games which is to say that they have no bad losses. Minnesota is #87 NET and 51-100 on a neutral court is Q2 so MSU will be perfect in Q3/Q4 games.

Fourteen is a lot of losses but they were:

• #2 Purdue, A
• #4 Zona, N
• #10 DOOK, N
• #15 Illinois, A
• #22 Wisconsin, H
• #22 Wisconsin, A
• #37 Nebraska, A
• #50 Northwestern, A
• #54 JMU, H
• #55 Ohio State, H
• #61 Iowa, H
• #87 Minnesota, A
• #87 Minnesota, N
• #94 Indiana, A

It is a LOT of losses but none are glaringly bad and most are "good".

[grillrat]

I think it will come down to the relative opinions on the committee.  Are they in the "who did you beat" camp or the "who beat you" camp.  MSU is kinda weak in the former but fairly strong in the latter.

In particular, their road / neutral record is particularly "bleh".  They have one really good neutral win over a top 15 Kenpom team (Baylor), and then the other 3 top 50 wins are all at home (Illinois #10, NW #41, ISU #42).  Their best true road win is @ Maryland (#58), a sub .500 team.

If they lose the Minnesota game, I think they might be sweating, but unless they get blown out, I think they still make it.

[medinabuckeye1]

If they lose the Minnesota game, I think they might be sweating, but unless they get blown out, I think they still make it.

This was something I was going to comment on not just for MSU but also for Northwestern and the Iowa/Ohio State winner.  

Back in the RPI days there was no accounting for MoV.  Many of you will remember that there were actually websites where you could go and fairly accurately project what a team's RPI would be after a win or loss.  The RPI had no MOV/efficiency component so it was completely irrelevant if the game was close or a blowout.  

The NET system, as I understand it, doesn't explicitly consider MoV but it does consider "efficiency" which is measured in some version of adjusted points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions.  

Around here we tend to talk about MoV which is technically inaccurate but practically interchangeable because a close game will have close efficiency and a blowout will have a wide gap in efficiency.  

That was a long way of saying that efficiency/MoV DOES matter now.  If MSU or Northwestern gets run out of the gym they will take a bigger NET hit than if they lose a close game.  

I'm a lot higher on MSU's chances than @ELA but I could see a situation where they just get walloped by Minnesota and *MAYBE* that drops them out?  I still doubt it because I can't see even a blowout loss dropping them more than ~10 spots and I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a top-35 team with MSU's schedule out.  

Vis-a-vis the other bubble teams, MoV (technically efficiency) is a factor.  Northwestern's computer numbers aren't much better than tOSU/Iowa.  If they lose their opener they could be in trouble.  That said, a close loss to highly ranked Wisconsin would hurt them a lot less than a blowout loss to Rutgers.  

For tOSU/Iowa, I think the best thing for the league would be a blowout.  Basically my thinking here is that the loser is out regardless so the MoV/efficiency doesn't matter to the loser but it does matter to the winner because the winner isn't necessarily in.  There is a big difference for the winner between a blowout win followed by a close loss to Illinois and a close win followed by a blowout loss to Illinois.  Ie, I'm thinking that Iowa/tOSU gets in with a blowout win on Thursday and a close loss to Illinois on Friday but they do NOT get in with a close win on Thursday and a blowout loss to Illinois on Friday.  

NET rankings to illustrate all of this:

• MSU is #24 and on Thursday they play #87 Minnesota
• Northwestern is #50 and on Friday they play either #22 Wisconsin or the winner of #77 UMD vs #102 Rutgers
• #55 Ohio State and #61 Iowa play on Thursday for the right to play #15 Illinois on Friday.  

An MSU loss to Minnesota would be bad but it is still Q2.  Rutgers at #102 is a Q3 game at a neutral site but if they beat Maryland and Northwestern they'll move up to Q2.  That sucks for Maryland because if they win it is a Q3 win but if they lose it is a Q2 loss.  

On a neutral site Q1 is 1-50 and Q2 is 51-100.  

Either tOSU or Iowa could move into the top-50 by winning so the loser may get a Q1 loss but that will not help them since the loss will knock them out regardless of the fact that it may upgrade to Q1.