As I see it, in terms of tournament prospects there are three groups here with Nebraska kinda straddling the line between group-2 and group-3:
- PU/M/UW/MSU: These teams play schedules that stand out for being TOUGH. That will help on Selection Sunday.
- IU/RU/IA/IL/NU/tOSU/PSU/UMD and maybe UNL: These schedules are "non-descript". They aren't impressively good nor embarrassingly bad. SoS will be more-or-less a non-factor on Selection Sunday.
- Maybe UNL and definitely MN: These schedules are bad and will be a liability come Selection Sunday.
Let's talk Tournament, who is a lock, who could only make it by winning the B1G Tournament, and for all the others, what do they need to do.
The above is from a post a few days ago where I listed each B1G team's SoS rank per KenPom. My thinking is that those in group-1 will get the benefit of the doubt while those in group-3 will need to be better than the average team. The bulk of the league falls in the middle where their schedules are neither a definitive help nor a definitive hindrance.
24-3/13-3 Purdue is a lock. Even if they lost out they'd be 24-8 on Selection Sunday and that would be enough.
19-7/10-5 Illinois is close to a lock but IMHO, they aren't quite there yet. If they lost out they'd be 19-13 on Selection Sunday and that *MIGHT* get them in but it might not. One or maybe two more wins does it for the Illini.
18-9/10-6 Wisconsin isn't a lock yet but they are close as well. Note from above that Wisconsin is one of the tough SoS teams that will get the benefit of the doubt. If they lost out they'd be 18-14 on Selection Sunday and that *MIGHT* get them in but it might not. One or maybe two more wins does it for the Badgers.
19-8/10-6 Northwestern is close as well. Same situation as Illinois, they need one or maybe two more wins.
17-10/9-7 Michigan State isn't there yet because if they lost out they'd be 17-15 on Selection Sunday and that probably isn't enough even with their schedule. That said, with MSU's schedule 18-14 might be enough and 19-13 almost certainly would be so one or maybe two more wins does it for the Spartans.
19-8/9-7 Nebraska needs two or three more wins. Their schedule is notably weak so they need a little more than IL/NU and a lot more than MSU/UW/PU. Losing out would put them at 19-13 on Selection Sunday and I don't think that is enough with their schedule. Two more wins does it for the Cornhuskers.
17-9/8-7 Minnesota has work to do. Their SoS is by far the worst in the league so they will need a better record than the others. I think that three more regular season wins would do it for the Gophers but if they hit the BTT at 19-12/10-10 as expected they'll need at least one win in the BTT.
16-11/8-8 Iowa is running out of time but the recent wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State helped immensely. IMHO, they are in if they finish the regular season 3-1 but anything less than that will require an impressive performance in Minneapolis.
13-14/7-9 Penn State probably needs to win the BTT because if they don't they'll finish with at least 15 losses. They might get in if they won their last four regular season games then made it to the B1GCG because at that point they'd be 20-15 but anything less than that wouldn't be enough.
14-12/6-9 Rutgers is running out of time as well. They probably need to go 4-1 in their last five games and win a couple in Minneapolis.
14-12/6-9 Indiana, same as Rutgers.
14-13/6-10 Maryland probably needs to win their last four and win a couple in Minneapolis.
15-12/5-11 Ohio State is running out of time as well. If they won every game until the B1GCG that would put them at 22-13 on Selection Sunday and that would probably be enough. At most they could afford one more regular season loss. It could be problematic that Diebler's aggressive style is exhausting which probably limits their chances of winning three games in three days in the BTT like they did last year.
8-19/3-13 Michigan clearly cannot get in without winning the BTT.
