2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

Ahh, yes. Kobe King.

He also had help from Alando Tucker messing him up.

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated projections:
Review of tiers:

• Purdue, Illinois
• Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern
• Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa
• Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State
• Michigan

Upsets so far:

That may seem like a lot of upsets but it is 17 which is about every fifth game.  That is actually pretty good.  Also, every team in the league is within +/-1 except Penn State at +2 which consists of three up (win vs UW, win at IU, win at RU) and one down (home loss to MN). 

There were seven games this weekend and all except PU at tOSU went as projected.  That upset doesn't immediately change things.  Purdue is still #1 but now by only one game.  Ohio State is still #13 only now they lose a tie for 12th with Indiana instead of just being 13th place alone.  

Projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 13-7/21-10 Wisconsin (wins tie with UNL and MSU based on H2H2H of 3-1, won in East Lansing).  
• 13-7/23-8 Nebraska (second in tie with UW and MSU based on H2H2H of 2-1, no game in East Lansing).  
• 13-7/21-10 Michigan State (last in tie with UW and UNL based on H2H2H of 0-3, lost at home to UW and does not host UNL).  
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 10-10/19-12 Minnesota
• 9-11/17-14 Rutgers
• 8-12/16-15 Maryland (wins tie with PSU and IA based on H2H2H of 3-1, won in Iowa City).   
• 8-12/14-17 Penn State (second in tie with UMD and IA based on H2H2H of 2-2).  
• 8-12/16-15 Iowa (last in tie with UMD and PSU based on H2H2H of 1-3, lost at home to UMD).  
• 6-14/14-17 Indiana (wins tie with tOSU based on H2H sweep).  
• 6-14/16-15 Ohio State
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Based on that, the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Iowa vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Ohio State, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Michigan State vs IU/tOSU, 230
• #6 Northwestern vs IA/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State, 630
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Maryland, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs RU/UMD, noon
• #2 Illinois vs MN/PSU, 630
• #3 Wisconsin vs NU/IA/M, 9pm
• #4 Nebraska vs MSU/IU/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/RU/UMD vs UNL/MSU/IU/tOSU, 1pm
• IL/MN/PSU vs UW/NU/IA/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/RU/UMD/UNL/MSU/IU/tOSU vs IL/MN/PSU/UW/NU/IA/M, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

Wisconsin is 17-9 with 5 left to play. Gonna be tough to get to 20 wins here.

They would need to win all of their home games. They should win tomorrow night, but the rest are tough games. I'm just going to assume that they lose the road games at this point.

I'm not seeing 20 wins here.

IMHO, this is overreaction to a rough stretch that is rough *MOSTLY* because it is just a tough group of games.  

This type of thing is what got me interested in doing some schedule-based projections and what got me connected with the tiers here.  Wisconsin has lost five out of six.  A lot of the idiot talking heads are writing their tombstone.  Lets step back and have a look.  First, were the losses projected?  Wisconsin's last six games with the projections:

• L in OT at Nebraska, loss was projected.  
• L at home to Purdue.  This was an upset but it is the #2 team in the country.  
• L at Michigan, a win was projected so this was an upset.  
• L at Rutgers, loss was projected.  
• W at home over tOSU, win was projected.  
• L at Iowa, loss was projected.  

So there have been two upset losses but one of those was a loss to #2 Purdue.  Only the Michigan loss is truly a bad loss.  Also note that immediately prior to this stretch the Badgers had won three straight including a substantial win over MSU and a road upset of the Gophers.  Wisconsin is -1 relative to the projections with the following upsets:

• Upset win in East Lansing on December 5.  
• Upset loss at Penn State on January 16.  
• Upset win in Minneapolis on January 23.  
• Upset home loss to Purdue on February 4.  
• Upset loss in Ann Arbor on February 7.  

[FearlessF]

No upsets for or against UNL 

[medinabuckeye1]

No upsets for or against UNL

They and Northwestern have no upsets.  All other teams have at least one.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at this week's games it is interesting that, at least per the tiers, there is only ONE game involving a superior team visiting an inferior team (UNL at IU on Wednesday).  In the rest, the better team is the host:

• Purdue hosting Rutgers on Thursday
• Illinois hosting Penn State on Wednesday
• Wisconsin hosting Maryland on Tuesday
• Michigan State hosting Iowa on Tuesday
• Northwestern hosting Michigan on Thursday
• Minnesota hosting Ohio State on Thursday

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G  teams' SoS per KenPom:

• #1 Purdue
• #2 Michigan
• #3 Wisconsin
• #9 Michigan State
• #20 Indiana
• #24 Rutgers
• #28 Iowa
• #38 Illinois
• #40 Northwestern
• #43 Ohio State
• #44 Penn State
• #49 Maryland
• #64 Nebraska
• #97 Minnesota

As I see it, in terms of tournament prospects there are three groups here with Nebraska kinda straddling the line between group-2 and group-3:

• PU/M/UW/MSU:  These teams play schedules that stand out for being TOUGH.  That will help on Selection Sunday.  
• IU/RU/IA/IL/NU/tOSU/PSU/UMD and maybe UNL:  These schedules are "non-descript".  They aren't impressively good nor embarrassingly bad.  SoS will be more-or-less a non-factor on Selection Sunday.  
• Maybe UNL and definitely MN:  These schedules are bad and will be a liability come Selection Sunday.  

[NickSmith4Three]

Looking at this week's games it is interesting that, at least per the tiers, there is only ONE game involving a superior team visiting an inferior team (UNL at IU on Wednesday).  In the rest, the better team is the host:

• Purdue hosting Rutgers on Thursday
• Illinois hosting Penn State on Wednesday
• Wisconsin hosting Maryland on Tuesday
• Michigan State hosting Iowa on Tuesday
• Northwestern hosting Michigan on Thursday
• Minnesota hosting Ohio State on Thursday

Illinois is at PSU

[medinabuckeye1]

Illinois is at PSU

Thanks, good catch.

Apparently I made a typo when I set up my season-long prediction spreadsheet. For Wednesday's games next to IL I had "vsPSU" and next to PSU I had "vsIL". I fixed it, should be "atPSU" next to Illinois. 

[ELA]

Is any game in BJC ever REALLY a road game?

[NickSmith4Three]

Is any game in BJC ever REALLY a road game?

I think heard that it is being held at their arena for their volleyball team.  Holds like 6k people or something like that. 

Edit...Rec Hall

[ELA]

I think heard that it is being held at their arena for their volleyball team.  Holds like 6k people or something like that.

Edit...Rec Hall

Mark Titus said PSU was so empty it almost made it harder, because you had to manufacture your own energy

[847badgerfan]

Mark Titus said PSU was so empty it almost made it harder, because you had to manufacture your own energy

A couple of Badger players said similar things.

[ELA]

Lol, Hoggard has now missed 5 layips