2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

That would’ve been fascinating, although the upcoming schedule isn’t particularly forgiving

It isn't but I've been saying for a long time that the Buckeyes had Tier-1 Talent and Tier-5 coaching.  In this context, my point is that the talent is there to at least be one of the better teams in the league rather than one of the worst as they have been under Holtmann.  

Remaining schedule:

• Vs #2 Purdue, Sunday, February 18 at 1pm on CBS
• At Minnesota, Thursday, February 22 at 8pm
• At Michigan State, Sunday, February 25 at 4pm on CBS
• Vs Nebraska, Thursday, February 29 at 6:30 on FS1
• Vs Michigan, Sunday, March 3 at 4pm on CBS
• At Rutgers, Sunday, March 10 at 2pm

An interesting comparison is to look at last year.  Right now they are 14-11/4-10.  Last year at this point they were a game worse in the league and three games worse overall at 11-14/3-11.  However, I would argue that they weren't any worse last year they just played a tougher OOC schedule.  Last year they played four legitimate OOC games and went 1-3.  This year they played two and went 1-1.  

From this point last year they:

• Lost three more to drop to 11-17/3-14.  
• Won back-to-back home games against teams that finished above .500 in the league (IL, UMD)
• Lost on the road to a Tom Izzo team in March
• Went 3-1 in the B1G Tournament with the loss coming against a pretty fresh Purdue team that was one of the best in the country while the Buckeyes were playing their fourth game in four days.  

After bottoming out at 11-17/3-14 they finished a very good 5-2 that was honestly even better than it looks because the two losses were both entirely understandable.  Ultimately that may have been more harmful than helpful to the program because that solid finish may have been a major contributing factor in the decision not to jettison Holtmann at the end of last season.  


As bad as the Buckeyes have looked the last two months I look at those last six games and think 0-6, maybe 1-5 if the Fighting Juwans don't bring their "A-Game".  Now? I don't know what to think.  There is enough talent on the roster that 3-3 should be the floor (winning home games against teams not named Purdue and at least splitting the road games at MN/RU).  

Holtmann's teams made frequent in game mistakes that even a first-time HC *SHOULD* be able to avoid so I do expect some immediate improvement. 

OTOH, one of Holtmann's notable failures was his inability to develop the talent that he recruited into anything more than what walked in the door.  @MaximumSam has been telling me for the better part of a decade that the problem is youth and I need to have patience.  One problem with that argument is that after multiple years it simply gets old because if the team failed to get old in seven years well, that is on the HC.  The other problem is that the Sophmores starting this year are no better than they were last year as Freshman.  That lack of development is not something that is going to be fixed between now and the Purdue game Sunday afternoon nor even between now and the B1G Tournament.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
I know @Brutus Buckeye has brought this up before, but my vote is for Tony Stockman.  

Tony is a few (like 7) years younger than me.  I actually know his brother better, brother is my age.  Anyway, he graduated from my HS and was Ohio's Mr. Basketball in 2000.  From there he went to Clemson but then transferred to Ohio State to be closer to home.  He led the Buckeyes in scoring in his Junior year and was a pretty significant contributor on the 2004-05 team (2nd leading scorer behind Dials) in his senior year (Matta's first year, no postseason due to suspension related to prior coach whom Tony also played for).  

Tony played 7 years of pro ball (Mostly or all in Europe I think) and coached Ohio Christian before moving on to Columbia International University.  He has won two NC's and two National COTY awards.  

I'm biased but I'm also a realist.  I know that those NC's and COTY awards were at a MUCH lower level.  

Still, if Ohio State is as worried about finances as @MaximumSam seems to think they will be, I'd MUCH rather take a flyer on a relative unknown than to hire a guy with a problematic history.  Plus, Tony is about 40 so if it worked out he could be there for 25 years and if it didn't, it would be a relatively cheap experiment.  

IIRC, Tony did have a scrape with the law but it was relatively minor and a REALLY long time ago, he's done a lot of maturing since then.  

[medinabuckeye1]

@Brutus Buckeye :
I'm friends with Tony on Facebook and just posted "A team in Columbus needs a Coach" on his page.  We'll see.  

[medinabuckeye1]

https://youtu.be/vnPsziXgy3k?si=oopUZox_0W9cZ8J4

[ELA]

OSU is a really good job.  I'd argue elite, because you have the history and resources of a blue blood, without the fan expectations.

But somehow, no OSU coach can leave the program on good footing.  The last OSU coach to retire as head coach of the school is Fred Taylor, in 1976.

Eldon Miller reached a couple of Sweet 16s, but jumped to Northern Iowa after an NIT Championship in 1986

Gary Williams jumped to his alma mater after 3 years

Randy Ayers did well early on with Gary's players, and then finished in the bottom 3 in the conference in his last 4 years

Jim O'Brien resurrected the program, won a couple of Big Ten titles, and reached a Final 4, but had a losing record in his last 2 seasons, and left the team on probation

Thad Matta got them back again, winning the first of 5 Big Ten titles in his second year.  But after winning 5 in 7 years, failed to finish above 5th in his final 4 years, missing the tournament twice, never reaching the 2nd weekend.

Chris Holtman nearly won a Big Ten title his first year, got a 2 seed in 2021, and made (or would have made the tournament in each of his first 5 seasons).  Now they are 9-25 in the Big Ten over the past two years, and headed to their 2nd straight Wednesday start in the BTT

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU is a really good job.  I'd argue elite, because you have the history and resources of a blue blood, without the fan expectations.

This, exactly.

Calipari is on the hot seat despite winning his league four years ago (his sixth SEC Title), an NC, and three F4's at Kentucky. That is simply life in Lexington. Same thing at all the Blue Bloods.

If you are the head man at Carolina/Dook/Kentucky/Kansas or UCLA/Indiana or if you get hired in East Lansing when Izzo retires the pitchforks will come out any time you miss the Tournament or if you go more than a couple years between league titles and/or S16's.

Ohio State has a history that is almost as good and resources that are superior (because football money makes basketball 🏀 money 💰 look like chump change) and MUCH less pressure.

Ohio State fans want a NC (who doesn't) but they haven't had one in over 60 years so there are only a few old guys left who can remember that. We'll build you a statue if you win league titles and make S16's at an every four years clip. Everything else is gravy. Try that at UNC/DOOK/UK/KU and you'll find yourself looking for a broadcasting gig.

[ELA]

I think MSU will be ok in time, I just wouldn't want to be the guy to immediately follow Izzo

[medinabuckeye1]

https://youtu.be/v3_Zu7h70dQ?si=ZHRYasZcP1n3Lkkb

AD Smith is asked if he regrets extension, duh.

At 7:00 he is asked "What is the standard for Ohio State Basketball?"

Answer:
"....Be in the hunt, periodically win the Championship, and go deep into the postseason and that hasn't changed. That hasn't been accomplished and we need to do better."

I wish he had consulted that standard two years ago but that is water under the bridge. 

[ELA]

Well if history is any indication, Ohio State is about to get really good for the next few years, before going in the tank again?

[ELA]

Every road win is gold,even if PSU added a bunch of garbage points to make it look slightly closer.

Bigger concern is Walkers groin seems to be getting worse and worse.  He can barely walk off the court for a timeout without a limp.

But if Akins is finally making the jump, because he realizes he's not on NBA Draft radars, a year after he thought hed be declaring for the draft, then I am here for a strong finish so he can declare.  Malik Hall remains the most important players though.  When he's on, this looks like the 2nd best team in the Big Ten.  When he isn't, they are WAY too guard dependent 

[Brutus Buckeye]

Randy Ayers did well early on with Gary's players, and then finished in the bottom 3 in the conference in his last 4 years

He also had one player shoot out another player's tires, while a third player drove the getaway car.

[ELA]

He also had one player shoot out another player's tires, while a third player drove the getaway car.

So you are saying Nate Oats should be the first call?

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/Covers/status/1757955313771094099?t=JorAn6MvnlVQu4ix0cYnmQ&s=19

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU is a really good job.  I'd argue elite, because you have the history and resources of a blue blood, without the fan expectations.

But somehow, no OSU coach can leave the program on good footing.  The last OSU coach to retire as head coach of the school is Fred Taylor, in 1976.

Eldon Miller reached a couple of Sweet 16s, but jumped to Northern Iowa after an NIT Championship in 1986

Gary Williams jumped to his alma mater after 3 years

Randy Ayers did well early on with Gary's players, and then finished in the bottom 3 in the conference in his last 4 years

Jim O'Brien resurrected the program, won a couple of Big Ten titles, and reached a Final 4, but had a losing record in his last 2 seasons, and left the team on probation

Thad Matta got them back again, winning the first of 5 Big Ten titles in his second year.  But after winning 5 in 7 years, failed to finish above 5th in his final 4 years, missing the tournament twice, never reaching the 2nd weekend.

Chris Holtman nearly won a Big Ten title his first year, got a 2 seed in 2021, and made (or would have made the tournament in each of his first 5 seasons).  Now they are 9-25 in the Big Ten over the past two years, and headed to their 2nd straight Wednesday start in the BTT

We've been here a long time, I remember you pointing this out before they hired Holtmann.  I answered the first part yesterday but this second part deserves a deeper look.  

First, I'll add that it is actually worse than even what you have presented because Fred Taylor was permitted the freedom to retire but he fits the same pattern:

Fred Taylor 1958/9-1975/6:
Hired for the 1958/59 season.  Went .500 in his first year then took off:

• NC in year #2
• Three straight NC Game appearances (60-62)
• Five straight league titles (60-64)

After that killer start he slowed down and won just two more league titles in his last 12 years.  One (68) included a F4 and the other (71) included an E8 but in his last five years at the helm (1971/2-1975/6) his teams finished:

• 18-6/10-4 2nd in 1972
• 14-10/8-6 t-3rd in 1973
• 9-15.4-10 8th in 1974
• 14-14/8-10 6th in 1975
• 6-20/2-16 10th (last) in 1976

Eldon Miller 1976/7-1985/6:

Seems like a bit of a caretaker.  Never finished above 12-6 in the league nor above 2nd.  Made a couple S16's.  

Gary Williams 1986/7-1988/9:
We poached him from BC and his record in Columbus was actually pretty mediocre but what he dad at Maryland once he got back to his alma-mater makes you wonder "what if".  In three seasons at Ohio State he never finished above .500 in the league and only made one NCAA appearance (1-1) so I don't think Ohio State fans were all that distraught to lose him but then in 22 years at Maryland:

• 1 NC
• 2 F4's
• 3 ACC Titles
• 7 S16's

Randy Ayers 1989/90-1996/7:
Ayers started out on fire.  In his first three seasons he had three NCAA appearances, two league titles, two S16's, and an E8 (lost to TCUN who were cheating on an industrial scale).  His last five years were just dreadful.  In those last five he had zero NCAA appearances and never finished at or above .500 in the league.  

Jim O'Brien 1997/8-2003/4:
Another coach poached from BC and yet another coach who started out on fire then cratered.  He inherited a mess and had a few players transfer to follow him but they had to sit out a year back then so his first season was a 1-15 last in the Big11Ten campaign but in his 2nd through 5th years in Columbus he made four straight NCAA appearances, won two league titles, and made a F4.  Most of that ended up being vacated due to NCAA infractions.  His last two years in Columbus were a dumpster fire.  The team sucked then got probation and it was just a mess.  

Thad Matta 2004/5-2016/7:
We grabbed Matta from Xavier.  His first year the team went .500 in the league and was under a postseason ban due to the issues that got his predecessor fired.  Then he won back-to-back league titles and made the NCAACG.  He followed that up with a NIT Championship (we got screwed, shoulda been in the NCAA) then seven straight NCAA Appearances (would have been 10 but for the 2008 slight) and in those seven years he also had four straight S16's, two E8's, and a F4. 

Matta's last two years were not good.  They went 21-14/11-7 second round of the NIT in his penultimate season then finished 17-15/7-11 in 2016/7.  The ending of that season was BAD.  The Buckeyes were the #11 seed in the BTT and *SHOULD* have had an easy win over the last place Scarlet Knights but looked like they REALLY didn't want to be in DC for the B1G Tournament and lost.  

Eldon Miller and Gary Williams don't really fit the identified pattern here.  They were more "caretakerish" with no great heights but they also didn't leave the program in shambles.  The others fit your identified pattern.  Taylor, Ayers, O'Brien, and Matta all hit incredible heights early in their tenures but cratered down the road.  
 
Personally, I think that is bad luck and coincidence.  I'd argue:

• Taylor just stayed past his time.  If he had retired after the 1970/71 season, that is a phenomenal 12 year run of a NC, three NCGames, four F4's, five E8's, and seven league titles.  
• With Ayers it could be that his success was more predicated on one or two REALLY good classes and I'm not even sure if those guys were his recruits, he may have inherited most of them when Williams went home.  
• O'Brien's cheating was minimal compared to other scandals.  I don't know what he was thinking.  
• Thad Matta, I think, just didn't learn to delegate and might actually have turned that around if we had kept him a while.  

In my optimistic opinion, the highs show what this program is capable of and the fact that a bunch of different coaches achieved VERY good results here makes me more comfortable in that assessment.  Also the fact that the VERY good results are spread over multiple decades supports the argument that the program can achieve VERY good results again.  They did in the 60's and a little in the 70's under Taylor.  They did in the 90's under Ayers.  They did in the 00's (aught's) under O'Brien.  They did in the late aughts and teens under Matta.  They should be able to in the 20's, 30's, and 40's under the next guy and the one after that and the one after him.  

OTOH, the pattern that you point out is troubling.  I argued above that the cratering late in their tenures is just bad luck and coincidence but I'll admit that it is troubling and concerning that ALL of them cratered late in their tenures.  Fred Taylor and Thad Matta weren't technically fired but their performance cratered and they probably would have been if they hadn't "retired" or "left for medical reasons".  With Ayers and O'Brien it is undeniable.  They SUCKED in their last few years and got canned.