2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Seems like we went a decade plus where the home team always won, to the road team winning quite a bunch recently

Starting with the 2004-05 season the home team won 12 in a row, and 18 of 20.  Since then the road team has won 7 of 9

[grillrat]

LoL

I'll but updating the tiers and projection on Friday so looking for input but at this point no changes appear to be needed.  Current tiers:

• UW (+1/-1), PU, IL -1, MSU -1
• Iowa (+1/-1), NU, UNL
• MN (+1/-1), tOSU, RU
• PSU +1, IU +1, UMD +1, M -1 (+1/-2)

The numbers listed are for upsets relative to the projections.  Upsets so far have been:

Note that all 14 teams are within +/-1:

• PSU, IU, and UMD are +1 with one positive upset each
• PU, NU, UNL, tOSU, and RU are even with no upsets
• UW, IA, and MN are even with one up and one down
• IL, and MSU are -1 with one negative upset
• Michigan is the wildcard, they are -1 with one up and two down

We have three teams in tier-1 with negative upsets and all four teams in tier-4 have a positive upset.  That is fairly common because tier-1 teams have 15 or 16 chances to be upset and only four or five chances to get an upset while tier-4 teams have 15 or 16 chances to get an upset and only four or five chances to be upset. 

I'm still thinking that Maryland moves up to tier 3.  It's true that it wouldn't change their current +1 status, and as you noted, all of the bottom tier teams have more chances for upsets, but at the same time they are the only team at the bottom who has a ROAD upset against a tier 1 team.  Kinda implies they have the potential to be pretty good.

I think Maryland's problem is that they had a somewhat disastrous OOC record.  I think they are improving a bit since then.
Don't get me wrong, I don't see them being a threat to winning the BT this year, at all but I think they are definitely a little better than PSU and Michigan.

[FearlessF]

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm still thinking that Maryland moves up to tier 3.  It's true that it wouldn't change their current +1 status, and as you noted, all of the bottom tier teams have more chances for upsets, but at the same time they are the only team at the bottom who has a ROAD upset against a tier 1 team.  Kinda implies they have the potential to be pretty good.

I think Maryland's problem is that they had a somewhat disastrous OOC record.  I think they are improving a bit since then.
Don't get me wrong, I don't see them being a threat to winning the BT this year, at all but I think they are definitely a little better than PSU and Michigan.

I guess the question for me is whether the win at Illinois signals that UMD has figured things out and is a good team going forward or if that is just a random weird night where they played really well and stole a game.  Too early to tell IMHO.  

The difference between tier-4 and tier-3 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 teams, there are only three:

• 1/27 vs UNL
• 2/14 vs IA (but this wouldn't count if we move them down per @boilerbanger 's suggestion)
• 2/28 vs NU

If you think they will go at least 2-1 in those three then we should move them up.  If you think they will go 1-2 or worse in those then we shouldn't.  

For this one, I think we should decide based on the result of their game in Evanston tonight.  If they win they obviously move up because they'd be +2.  If they lose a close one, I'd still move them up, but if they get run off the court then I think they stay where they are until proven otherwise.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Cornhuskers and Scarlett Knights coming down to the final minute in Piscataway 

[boilerbanger]

@medinabuckeye1  I think Maryland has figured something out, they are playing much better, Scott is hitting outside shots, Young is a stud ... I would move them to Tier 3 moving forward as I think they are going to do much better the balance of the season.  I am just hoping the sports book takes a few games to figure that out.

[ELA]

@medinabuckeye1  I think Maryland has figured something out, they are playing much better, Scott is hitting outside shots, Young is a stud ... I would move them to Tier 3 moving forward as I think they are going to do much better the balance of the season.  I am just hoping the sports book takes a few games to figure that out.

Yeah improving Maryland team + MSU road struggles this weekend

[FearlessF]

Cornhuskers and Scarlett Knights coming down to the final minute in Piscataway

Hoiberg settling in Tier 5

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1  I think Maryland has figured something out, they are playing much better, Scott is hitting outside shots, Young is a stud ... I would move them to Tier 3 moving forward as I think they are going to do much better the balance of the season.  I am just hoping the sports book takes a few games to figure that out.

Agreed.  I said yesterday:

For this one, I think we should decide based on the result of their game in Evanston tonight.  If they win they obviously move up because they'd be +2.  If they lose a close one, I'd still move them up, but if they get run off the court then I think they stay where they are until proven otherwise. 

They didn't win but they were awfully close.  They lost by three and it was a one or two possession game almost all night long.  I'll move them up for the update which I will do tomorrow.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Hoiberg settling in Tier 5

Disagree.  Losses like that hurt but it was an EXTREMELY close loss on the road and Rutgers isn't great but they aren't entirely terrible.  Not the end of the world.  

[boilerbanger]

Disagree.  Losses like that hurt but it was an EXTREMELY close loss on the road and Rutgers isn't great but they aren't entirely terrible.  Not the end of the world. 

Nebraska needs to win these moving forward if they are going to make the tourney.

[grillrat]

You know, the Big Ten East is obviously the better division in Football.

Basketball though......not so much.


Big Ten Men's College Basketball Standings - 2023-24

Big Ten Conference

[th][/th]

[th][/th]

11Wisconsin Badgers

2Purdue Boilermakers

Northwestern Wildcats

14Illinois Fighting Illini

Indiana Hoosiers

Iowa Hawkeyes

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Maryland Terrapins

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Penn State Nittany Lions

Michigan Wolverines

Ohio State Buckeyes

Michigan State Spartans

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

[FearlessF]

too bad it's not a basketball conference

[medinabuckeye1]

Anybody else have a position on whether or not to move Iowa down a tier?