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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
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rolltidefan · « **Reply #84 on:** August 24, 2022, 10:02:43 AM »

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2022, 08:23:28 PM

Saturday, November 12
#5 Alabama d. #9 Ole Miss

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2022, 11:34:18 PM

Week 11 standings

SEC

WEST

Alabama (6-1) 9-1
Ole Miss (4-2) 8-2
Auburn (4-3) 7-3
Texas A&M (4-3) 7-3
Mississippi State (4-3) 6-4
LSU (3-4) 6-4
Arkansas (2-4) 4-6

if my headmath is right, bama just locked up secw title and seccg birth. only 1 sec game left, bama's 1 loss is from east, and own head to head over ole miss. don't know ole miss 2nd loss, but doesn't matter if it's east or west, cause of h2h.

ELA · « **Reply #85 on:** August 24, 2022, 11:40:14 AM »

WEEK 12
Tuesday, November 15

Ball State d. Ohio
Toledo d. Bowling Green

Wednesday, November 16

Kent State d. Eastern Michigan
Miami(Ohio) d. Northern Illinois
Western Michigan d. Central Michigan

Thursday, November 17

Tulane d. SMU

Friday, November 18

San Diego State d. New Mexico
South Florida d. Tulsa

Saturday, November 19
ESPN College Gameday, live from Eugene, OR
#4 Oregon d. #6 Utah

#1 OHIO STATE d. MARYLAND
#2 Georgia d. #23 Kentucky
#3 MICHIGAN d. ILLINOIS
#5 Alabama d. Austin Peay
#7 Houston d. East Carolina
#8 Clemson d. #19 Miami
#9 Notre Dame d. Boston College
#10 Pittsburgh d. Duke
#18 Oklahoma d. #11 Oklahoma State
MINNESOTA d. #12 IOWA
#13 North Carolina d. Georgia Tech
#14 Ole Miss d. Arkansas
WISCONSIN d. #15 NEBRASKA
#16 Texas A&M d. Massachusetts
#17 Cincinnati d. Temple
#20 Tennessee d. South Carolina
#21 Central Florida d. Navy
#22 Auburn d. Western Kentucky
#24 Washington d. Colorado
#25 Baylor d. TCU

Air Force d. Colorado State
Akron d. Buffalo
Appalachian State d. Old Dominion
Arizona State d. Oregon State
Arkansas State d. Texas State
Army d. Connecticut
BYU d. Utah Tech
Florida d. Vanderbilt
Florida State d. Louisiana
Fresno State d. Nevada
Georgia State d. James Madison
Hawaii d. UNLV
Liberty d. Virginia Tech
Louisiana Tech d. Charlotte
Louisville d. NC State
LSU d. UAB
Marshall d. Georgia Southern
Memphis d. North Alabama
MICHIGAN STATE d. INDIANA
Middle Tennessee d. Florida Atlantic
Mississippi State d. East Tennessee State
Missouri d. NM State
PURDUE d. NORTHWESTERN
RUTGERS d. PENN STATE
San Jose State d. Utah State
Southern Miss d. South Alabama
Stanford d. California
Texas d. Kansas
Texas Tech d. Iowa State
Troy d. UL Monroe
USC d. UCLA
UTEP d. FIU
UTSA d. Rice
Virginia d. Coastal Carolina
Wake Forest d. Syracuse
Washington State d. Arizona
West Virginia d. Kansas State
Wyoming d. Boise State

FearlessF · « **Reply #86 on:** August 24, 2022, 11:44:39 AM »

even with this great season by recent standards.. Frost is going to have to win in Iowa City to save his job

Abba · « **Reply #87 on:** August 24, 2022, 12:53:40 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 24, 2022, 11:44:39 AM

even with this great season by recent standards.. Frost is going to have to win in Iowa City to save his job

I have to assume 8-4 with a win over Oklahoma is good enough right? Plus a chance at a bowl game against a P12 tomato can.

Abba · « **Reply #88 on:** August 24, 2022, 12:56:00 PM »

Could Penn State really be this bad? Good thing Franklin already locked up his money.

Plus who the heck would win the West if this happened. 5 teams at 5-3 with one game to go? This is a medinabuckeye wet dream!

FearlessF · « **Reply #89 on:** August 24, 2022, 12:59:14 PM »

Quote from: Abba on August 24, 2022, 12:53:40 PM

I have to assume 8-4 with a win over Oklahoma is good enough right? Plus a chance at a bowl game against a P12 tomato can.

most would think so, but if you end the season on a 4 game skid with losses to Minnesooota, Wisconsin, and Iowa... all West division foes
that's just not a good taste

Abba · « **Reply #90 on:** August 24, 2022, 01:19:38 PM »

Nebraska beat Minnesota. I thought you were at that game. Losses are Wiscy, Purdue, and Michigan so far.

utee94 · « **Reply #91 on:** August 24, 2022, 01:25:36 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 24, 2022, 11:40:14 AM

WEEK 12
Texas d. Kansas

Hey at least we're showing improvement over last year!!!

FearlessF · « **Reply #92 on:** August 24, 2022, 01:33:04 PM »

yes, would be better to lose to the Boilers on the road than the the Gophers at home

should still probably beat the Hawks to finish the reg season on a good note.

haven't had a win over the border rival on Black Friday since 2014 in Iowa City

ELA · « **Reply #93 on:** August 24, 2022, 02:11:52 PM »

Quote from: Abba on August 24, 2022, 12:56:00 PM

Could Penn State really be this bad? Good thing Franklin already locked up his money.

Plus who the heck would win the West if this happened. 5 teams at 5-3 with one game to go? This is a medinabuckeye wet dream!

4 play each other, so 2 will be eliminated. Assuming Purdue handles Indiana, it will be a 3 way tie between the Boilers, and the two rivalry weekend winners

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #94 on:** August 24, 2022, 02:24:08 PM »

Quote from: Abba on August 24, 2022, 12:56:00 PM

Plus who the heck would win the West if this happened. 5 teams at 5-3 with one game to go? This is a medinabuckeye wet dream!

I've been keeping an eye on it. It is interesting how different the two divisions are in this simulation. Everyone other than tOSU and M has been mathematically eliminated for a couple weeks and practically eliminated for much longer. Also, even before this week's simulated tOSU>UMD and M >IL THE GAME had already mathematically become the B1GECG.

The West creates a convoluted tiebreaker scenario. Here are the standings for the contenders heading into the final game along with who each team plays:

5-3 Iowa, vsUNL
5-3 Nebraska, @Iowa
5-3 Minnesota, @UW
5-3 Wisconsin, vsMN
5-3 Purdue, @IU

So the Iowa/Nebraska winner and the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner will tie for the B1GW title at 6-3 with Purdue joining them if the Boilermakers beat their instate rivals. That still leaves eight possible outcomes because there are three relevant games and 2x2x2=8. Here are the possible outcomes:

IA, UW, PU: Iowa
IA, UW: Iowa
IA, MN, PU: Minnesota
IA, MN: Minnesota
UNL, UW, PU: Purdue
UNL, UW: Wisconsin
UNL, MN, PU: I *THINK* Minnesota
UNL, MN: Nebraska

Tiebreakers:

IA, UW, PU:

Iowa goes, they beat both UW and PU

IA, UW:

Iowa goes, they beat UW

IA, MN, PU:

Minnesota goes, they beat both IA and PU

IA, MN:

Minnesota goes, they beat IA

UNL, UW, PU:

Purdue goes, they beat both UNL and UW

UNL, UW:

Wisconsin goes, they beat UNL

UNL, MN, PU:

H2H2H is tied at 1-1 so we move to
Divisional Record: not sure what that is. If tied move to
Record against the next highest placed team or team in the division. In this case that would be Iowa and Wisconsin. Minnesota would win here as they'd be 2-0 while the other two would be 1-1.

UNL, MN

Nebraska goes, they beat MN

All five eams need a win, they also need:
Iowa:

UW>MN

Wisconsin:

UNL>IA and
IU>PU

Purdue:

UNL>IA and
UW>MN

Minnesota:

IA>UNL or
PU>IU

Nebraska:

MN>UW and
IU>PU

ELA · « **Reply #95 on:** August 24, 2022, 03:14:44 PM »

Week 12 standings

ACC
ATLANTIC

Clemson (6-2) 9-2
Florida State (5-3) 7-4
NC State (4-3) 7-4
Syracuse (4-3) 7-4
Louisville (4-4) 6-5
Wake Forest (3-4) 6-5
Boston College (2-5) 4-7

COASTAL

Pittsburgh (6-1) 10-1
North Carolina (6-1) 9-2
Miami (5-1) 8-3
Virginia (2-5) 6-5
Georgia Tech (2-6) 3-8
Duke (1-6) 5-6
Virginia Tech (1-6) 2-9

BIG XII

Oklahoma (7-1) 9-2
Baylor (6-2) 8-3
Oklahoma State (6-2) 8-3
Iowa State (4-4) 6-5
Texas (4-4) 6-5
Texas Tech (4-4) 6-5
West Virginia (4-4) 6-5
TCU (3-5) 5-6
Kansas State (2-6) 4-7
Kansas (0-8) 1-10

BIG TEN
EAST

Michigan (8-0) 11-0
Ohio State (8-0) 11-0
Michigan State (5-3) 7-4
Penn State (3-5) 5-6
Indiana (3-5) 4-7
Rutgers (1-7) 4-7
Maryland (0-8) 2-9

WEST

Iowa (5-3) 8-3
Minnesota (5-3) 8-3
Nebraska (5-3) 8-3
Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
Purdue (5-3) 7-4
Illinois (2-6) 4-7
Northwestern (1-7) 2-9

PAC 12
NORTH

Oregon (8-0) 10-1
Washington (5-3) 8-3
Stanford (4-5) 5-6
Oregon State (3-5) 6-5
California (3-5) 5-6
Washington State (3-5) 4-7

SOUTH

Utah (6-2) 9-2
USC (6-3) 7-4
Arizona State (4-4) 7-4
UCLA (4-4) 7-4
Arizona (3-5) 5-6
Colorado (0-8) 0-11

SEC
EAST

Georgia (8-0) 11-0
Tennessee (5-2) 8-3
Kentucky (4-4) 7-4
Florida (3-5) 5-6
Missouri (1-6) 4-7
Vanderbilt (1-6) 2-9
South Carolina (1-7) 3-8

WEST

Alabama (6-1) 10-1
Ole Miss (5-2) 9-2
Auburn (4-3) 8-3
Texas A&M (4-3) 8-3
Mississippi State (4-3) 7-4
LSU (3-4) 7-4
Arkansas (2-5) 4-7

AMERICAN

Houston (7-0) 11-0
Central Florida (7-0) 10-1
Cincinnati (6-1) 10-1
South Florida (5-2) 6-5
Memphis (4-3) 7-4
Tulane (3-4) 6-5
Navy (3-5) 4-7
SMU (2-5) 6-5
Tulsa (1-6) 4-7
East Carolina (1-6) 3-8
Temple (0-7) 2-9

CONFERENCE USA

Western Kentucky (6-1) 10-2
UAB (6-1) 9-2
UTSA (6-1) 7-4
Florida Atlantic (4-3) 6-5
Louisiana Tech (4-3) 6-5
UTEP (4-3) 5-6
Middle Tennessee (3-4) 5-6
North Texas (3-4) 5-6
FIU (1-6) 3-8
Rice (1-6) 2-9
Charlotte (1-7) 2-10

MAC
EAST

Akron (5-2) 6-5
Kent State (5-2) 6-5
Buffalo (4-3) 6-5
Miami(Ohio) (4-3) 6-5
Ohio (1-6) 3-8
Bowling Green (1-6) 2-9

WEST

Toledo (7-0) 9-2
Western Michigan (6-1) 7-4
Northern Illinois (3-4) 5-6
Ball State (2-5) 4-7
Central Michigan (2-5) 4-7
Eastern Michigan (2-5) 4-7

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

Colorado State (6-1) 9-2
Air Force (5-2) 8-3
Boise State (5-2) 8-3
Utah State (5-2) 7-4
Wyoming (3-4) 4-7
New Mexico (0-7) 2-9

WEST

San Diego State (6-1) 9-2
Fresno State (5-2) 8-3
Hawaii (3-4) 6-6
San Jose State (2-5) 5-6
Nevada (1-6) 3-8
UNLV (1-6) 2-9

SUN BELT
EAST

Appalachian State (7-0) 9-2
Marshall (6-1) 9-2
Georgia State (5-2) 7-4
Coastal Carolina (4-3) 6-5
Old Dominion (3-4) 5-6
Georgia Southern (2-5) 4-7
James Madison (0-7) 1-10

WEST

Louisiana (5-2) 8-3
Southern Miss (4-3) 7-4
Arkansas State (4-3) 6-5
Texas State (3-4) 5-6
Troy (3-4) 4-7
South Alabama (2-5) 3-8
UL Monroe (1-6) 2-9

INDEPENDENTS

Army (9-1)
Notre Dame (9-2)
Liberty (7-4)
BYU (6-5)
Massachusetts (4-7)
NM State (4-7)
Connecticut (1-11)

FearlessF · « **Reply #96 on:** August 24, 2022, 04:11:52 PM »

in the Big Ten

the east would be boring - but seem somewhat normal
the West would be a helluva finish

ELA · « **Reply #97 on:** August 24, 2022, 04:49:56 PM »

November 20 Poll

OHIO STATE (11-0) 1
Georgia (11-0) 2
MICHIGAN (11-0) 3
Oregon (10-1) 4
Alabama (10-1) 5
Clemson (9-2) 8
Houston (11-0) 7
Notre Dame (9-2) 9
Pittsburgh (10-1) 10
North Carolina (9-2) 13
Ole Miss (9-2) 14
Utah (9-2) 6
Oklahoma (9-2) 18
Texas A&M (8-3) 16
Cincinnati (10-1) 17
Tennessee (8-3) 20
Oklahoma State (8-3) 11
Auburn (8-3) 22
MINNESOTA (8-3) -
WISCONSIN (8-3) -
IOWA (8-3) 12
NEBRASKA (8-3) 15
Central Florida (10-1) 21
Washington (8-3) 24
Miami (8-3) 19

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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation

rolltidefan

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ELA

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FearlessF

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Abba

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Abba

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FearlessF

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Abba

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utee94

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FearlessF

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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FearlessF

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ELA

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