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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation

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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #42 on: August 16, 2022, 04:09:28 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 16, 2022, 01:24:30 PM
What a big weekend this would be! Seven pairs of ranked teams playing each other is a lot!
And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better.  6 ranked teams losing to unranked teams
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #43 on: August 16, 2022, 04:42:25 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 16, 2022, 04:09:28 PM
And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better.  6 ranked teams losing to unranked teams
Conveniently, my team has the week off on October 15.

It seems like most seasons there ends up being a crazy weekend that unexpectedly substantially rearranges the NC picture and much like this simulation a lot of times it is unexpected because there aren't many high-end matchups.
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Abba

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #44 on: August 16, 2022, 04:55:38 PM »
Tom Allen would maybe save his job with a win there over Maryland.  Meanwhile, I don't know if Northwestern would ever fire Pat Fitzgerald, but this would be rough to have 2 miserable seasons in a row like this.
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Abba

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #45 on: August 16, 2022, 04:58:33 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 16, 2022, 04:09:28 PM
And yet, the following week, which looks like a dud on paper, turned out to perhaps be better.  6 ranked teams losing to unranked teams
I'd guess that in a few of those such as Wisconsin-MSU and Purdue-Nebraska the unranked team may actually be the favorite.  I think Purdue may have been favored or only very slight underdogs vs. MSU last year, and Vegas definitely knew something there.
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #46 on: August 16, 2022, 05:15:15 PM »
Week 7 standings

ACC
ATLANTIC
  • Syracuse (3-0) 6-0
  • Clemson (4-1) 6-1
  • Louisville (3-1) 4-2
  • Florida State (3-2) 4-3
  • NC State (1-2) 4-3
  • Boston College (1-3) 2-4
  • Wake Forest (0-2) 3-3
COASTAL
  • North Carolina (3-0) 6-1
  • Pittsburgh (2-0) 6-0
  • Miami (1-1) 4-2
  • Virginia (1-2) 4-2
  • Georgia Tech (1-2) 2-4
  • Duke (0-3) 4-3
  • Virginia Tech (0-4) 1-6

BIG XII
  • Oklahoma State (3-0) 5-1
  • Iowa State (3-1) 5-2
  • Oklahoma (3-1) 5-2
  • Baylor (2-1) 4-2
  • TCU (2-1) 4-2
  • West Virginia (2-1) 4-2
  • Kansas State (1-2) 3-3
  • Texas (1-3) 3-4
  • Texas Tech (0-3) 2-4
  • Kansas (0-4) 1-6

BIG TEN
EAST
  • Michigan (4-0) 7-0
  • Ohio State (3-0) 6-0
  • Michigan State (2-2) 4-3
  • Penn State (1-2) 3-3
  • Indiana (1-3) 2-5
  • Rutgers (0-3) 3-3
  • Maryland (0-4) 2-5
WEST
  • Nebraska (3-1) 6-1
  • Wisconsin (3-1) 6-1
  • Purdue (3-1) 5-2
  • Iowa (2-1) 5-1
  • Minnesota (2-1) 5-1
  • Illinois (1-3) 3-4
  • Northwestern (0-3) 1-5

PAC 12
NORTH
  • California (3-0) 5-1
  • Oregon (3-0) 5-1
  • Washington (2-2) 5-2
  • Oregon State (1-3) 4-3
  • Stanford (1-3) 2-4
  • Washington State (0-4) 1-6
SOUTH
  • UCLA (3-0) 6-0
  • Utah (3-1) 6-1
  • USC (3-2) 4-3
  • Arizona (2-2) 4-3
  • Arizona State (1-2) 4-2
  • Colorado (0-3) 0-6

SEC
EAST
  • Georgia (4-0) 7-0
  • Tennessee (2-1) 4-2
  • Kentucky (2-2) 5-2
  • Florida (1-3) 3-4
  • Missouri (0-3) 2-4
  • South Carolina (0-3) 2-4
  • Vanderbilt (0-3) 1-6
WEST
  • Ole Miss (3-0) 7-0
  • Alabama (3-1) 6-1
  • LSU (3-1) 6-1
  • Mississippi State (3-1) 5-2
  • Auburn (2-2) 5-2
  • Texas A&M (1-2) 4-2
  • Arkansas (1-3) 2-5

AMERICAN
  • Cincinnati (2-0) 6-0
  • Houston (2-0) 6-0
  • Central Florida (2-0) 5-1
  • South Florida (2-1) 3-4
  • SMU (1-1) 5-1
  • Memphis (2-2) 4-3
  • Navy (2-2) 3-3
  • Tulane (1-2) 4-3
  • East Carolina (1-3) 2-5
  • Tulsa (0-2) 3-3
  • Temple (0-2) 2-4

CONFERENCE USA
  • UAB (3-0) 6-0
  • UTSA (3-0) 4-3
  • Western Kentucky (2-1) 6-1
  • Florida Atlantic (2-1) 4-3
  • North Texas (2-1) 4-3
  • Louisiana Tech (1-1) 3-3
  • Charlotte (1-2) 2-5
  • UTEP (1-2) 2-5
  • FIU (0-2) 2-4
  • Rice (0-2) 1-5
  • Middle Tennessee (0-3) 2-5

MAC
EAST
  • Akron (3-0) 4-3
  • Miami(Ohio) (2-1) 4-3
  • Kent State (2-1) 3-4
  • Buffalo (1-1) 3-3
  • Ohio (1-2) 3-4
  • Bowling Green (0-3) 1-6
WEST
  • Toledo (3-0) 5-2
  • Western Michigan (2-1) 3-4
  • Eastern Michigan (1-1) 3-3
  • Central Michigan (1-2) 3-4
  • Northern Illinois (1-2) 3-4
  • Ball State (0-3) 2-5

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
  • Boise State (3-0) 5-1
  • Colorado State (2-0) 5-1
  • Air Force (3-1) 6-1
  • Utah State (2-1) 4-3
  • Wyoming (2-1) 3-4
  • New Mexico (0-3) 2-5
WEST
  • Fresno State (1-1) 4-2
  • San Diego State (1-1) 4-2
  • Hawaii (1-1) 4-3
  • San Jose State (1-2) 3-3
  • UNLV (1-3) 2-5
  • Nevada (0-3) 2-5

SUN BELT
EAST
  • Appalachian State (3-0) 4-2
  • Marshall (2-0) 5-1
  • Coastal Carolina (3-1) 5-2
  • Georgia Southern (2-1) 4-3
  • Georgia State (1-1) 3-3
  • Old Dominion (1-1) 3-3
  • James Madison (0-4) 1-5
WEST
  • Southern Miss (2-0) 5-1
  • Louisiana (2-1) 5-1
  • Arkansas State (2-2) 3-4
  • South Alabama (1-1) 2-4
  • Texas State (1-2) 3-4
  • Troy (1-3) 2-5
  • UL Monroe (0-4) 1-6

INDEPENDENTS
  • Army (5-1)
  • Notre Dame (5-1)
  • BYU (5-2)
  • Liberty (4-3)
  • NM State (3-4)
  • Massachusetts (2-5)
  • Connecticut (1-7)
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #47 on: August 16, 2022, 05:16:44 PM »
Quote from: Abba on August 16, 2022, 04:58:33 PM
I'd guess that in a few of those such as Wisconsin-MSU and Purdue-Nebraska the unranked team may actually be the favorite.  I think Purdue may have been favored or only very slight underdogs vs. MSU last year, and Vegas definitely knew something there.
Purdue at home for sure.  Wisconsin at MSU might be close to a toss up.  The SP/FPI numbers would favor Wisconsin by about 2.8 on a neutral field
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ELA

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #48 on: August 16, 2022, 05:47:52 PM »
October 16 Poll
  • OHIO STATE (6-0) 2
  • Georgia (7-0) 3
  • MICHIGAN (7-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (5-1) 6
  • Ole Miss (7-0) 7
  • Oregon (5-1) 8
  • Oklahoma State (5-1) 9
  • Alabama (6-1) 1
  • Clemson (6-1) 4
  • Houston (5-0) 10
  • UCLA (6-0) 12
  • Utah (6-1) 13
  • IOWA (5-1) 14
  • Pittsburgh (6-0) 15
  • Cincinnati (6-0) 16
  • Texas A&M (4-2) 18
  • Syracuse (6-0) 19
  • NEBRASKA (5-1) 11
  • Arizona State (4-2) 23
  • LSU (6-1) 24
  • WISCONSIN (6-1) -
  • Tennessee (4-2) -
  • PURDUE (5-2) -
  • Washington (5-2) 17
  • Baylor (4-2) -





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rolltidefan

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #49 on: August 17, 2022, 10:46:31 AM »
Quote from: ELA on August 16, 2022, 04:08:49 PM


  • Tennessee d. #1 Alabama
no, no no, NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #50 on: August 17, 2022, 10:54:46 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 17, 2022, 10:46:31 AM
no, no no, NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know it always sucks to lose to a rival but in the CFP era the easiest loss to overcome, BY FAR, is a loss to a non-divisional conference opponent. 

Losses to OOC opponents are bad for several reasons, chiefly:
  • That OOC opponent may end up as a CFP contender and if so it is hard to get in ahead of them when carrying a H2H loss. This is not an issue with a non-divisional league loss because the team will either take themselves out by taking multiple losses or go to the CG where you'll get a second shot at them.
  • With very limited interleague play, an OOC game generally ends up being perceived as proof positive that the winner is superior and the loser is inferior. This is a non-issue with league opponents due to common opponents. 
Losses within the division suck because they can cost you a spot in the CG.

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utee94

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #51 on: August 17, 2022, 11:05:38 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2022, 10:54:46 AM
I know it always sucks to lose to a rival but in the CFP era the easiest loss to overcome, BY FAR, is a loss to a non-divisional conference opponent.

Losses to OOC opponents are bad for several reasons, chiefly:
  • That OOC opponent may end up as a CFP contender and if so it is hard to get in ahead of them when carrying a H2H loss. This is not an issue with a non-divisional league loss because the team will either take themselves out by taking multiple losses or go to the CG where you'll get a second shot at them.
  • With very limited interleague play, an OOC game generally ends up being perceived as proof positive that the winner is superior and the loser is inferior. This is a non-issue with league opponents due to common opponents.
Losses within the division suck because they can cost you a spot in the CG.



Losses within the division to your hated archrival are absolutely the worst, as I know all too well.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #52 on: August 17, 2022, 11:57:26 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 17, 2022, 11:05:38 AM
Losses within the division to your hated archrival are absolutely the worst, as I know all too well.
Absolutely. Sadly, I experienced that last year:
  • Loss to hated archrival. 
  • Knocked out of CG.
  • Knocked out of CFP.

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utee94

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #53 on: August 17, 2022, 12:01:14 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2022, 11:57:26 AM
Absolutely. Sadly, I experienced that last year:
  • Loss to hated archrival.
  • Knocked out of CG.
  • Knocked out of CFP.



Yup.  That was most of the early 2000s for Texas.

Of course, sucking so bad that you lose 7 games, is worse. So I'd definitely trade now, for then.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #54 on: August 17, 2022, 12:05:39 PM »
Would you choose ...

A.  Your team finishes 8-5 with a bowl game win over nobody but you beat your hated rival, or

B.  Your team finishes 12-2 with losses to both HR and in CFP.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
« Reply #55 on: August 17, 2022, 12:06:37 PM »
Quote from: ELA on August 16, 2022, 05:15:15 PM
Week 7 standings
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Michigan (4-0) 7-0
  • Ohio State (3-0) 6-0
  • Michigan State (2-2) 4-3
  • Penn State (1-2) 3-3
  • Indiana (1-3) 2-5
  • Rutgers (0-3) 3-3
  • Maryland (0-4) 2-5
WEST
  • Nebraska (3-1) 6-1
  • Wisconsin (3-1) 6-1
  • Purdue (3-1) 5-2
  • Iowa (2-1) 5-1
  • Minnesota (2-1) 5-1
  • Illinois (1-3) 3-4
  • Northwestern (0-3) 1-5
Interesting dynamic here where the East is effectively a two-team race and likely to be decided in one game with the other five teams practically (although not mathematically) eliminated while the West is wide open with five teams all with one loss each.
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