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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation
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ELA · « **Reply #140 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:21:07 AM »

Bowl Schedule

DECEMBER 16	.
BAHAMAS		Kent State d. UAB
CURE		Georgia State d. San Jose State
DECEMBER 17
FENWAY		Virginia d. #13 Cincinnati
NEW MEXICO		Air Force d. Florida Atlantic
LA		UCLA d. San Diego State
LENDING TREE		Coastal Carolina d. Miami(Ohio)
LAS VEGAS		#20 Washington d. BYU
FRISCO		Utah State d. Southern Miss
DECEMBER 19
MYRTLE BEACH		Liberty d. Appalachian State
DECEMBER 20
POTATO		Boise State d. Akron
BOCA RATON		Tulane d. Marshall
DECEMBER 21
NEW ORLEANS		Louisiana Tech d. Louisiana
DECEMBER 22
ARMED FORCES		TCU d. South Florida
DECEMBER 23
INDEPENDENCE		Memphis d. Army
GASPARILLA		Wake Forest d. #25 Western Kentucky
DECEMBER 24
HAWAII		Fresno State d. UTSA
DECEMBER 26
QUICK LANE		Western Michigan d. Old Dominion
DECEMBER 27
CAMELLIA		Buffalo d. Arkansas State
BIRMINGHAM		SMU d. Arkansas
FIRST RESPONDER		Oregon State d. Iowa State
GUARANTEED RATE		Texas Tech d. PENN STATE
DECEMBER 28
MILITARY		Central Florida d. NC State
LIBERTY		Florida d. West Virginia
HOLIDAY		#22 USC d. Louisville
TEXAS		Mississippi State d. Texas
DECEMBER 29
PINSTRIPE		MICHIGAN STATE d. Syracuse
CHEEZ-IT		Florida State d. Baylor
ALAMO		#17 Oklahoma State d. Arizona State
DECEMBER 30
MAYO		#15 Notre Dame d. #24 PURDUE
SUN		#14 Pittsburgh d. #21 Utah
GATOR		Kentucky d. #19 Miami
ARIZONA		Colorado State d. Toledo
ORANGE		#5 Clemson d. #11 Texas A&M
DECEMBER 31
MUSIC CITY		MINNESOTA d. LSU
SUGAR		#9 Ole Miss d. #7 Oklahoma
PEACH (CFP)		#2 Alabama d. #3 MICHIGAN
FIESTA (CFP)		#1 OHIO STATE d. #4 Georgia
JANUARY 2
RELIAQUEST		#23 Auburn d. #18 IOWA
CITRUS		#12 Tennessee d. NEBRASKA
COTTON		#10 North Carolina d. #6 Houston
ROSE	.	#8 Oregon d. #16 WISCONSIN

Cincydawg · « **Reply #141 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:27:56 AM »

I think at this point OSU and Bama are the two best teams, by a fair bit, then UGA and maybe Clemson/Michigan in the next bunch. Between OSU and Bama, well, I'd lean slightly to the latter ...

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #142 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:33:19 AM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on August 29, 2022, 09:47:22 AM

i wonder if they'd go for the 2 rematches in semis to avoid another rematch in title game. probably not, but never been in this situation before.

argument for is basically you're guaranteed to have 2 big regions interested for both semi and titles games that way.

I think you'd roll the dice on the CG for two reasons:

The potential payoff is no rematches at all. If your semi-finals of tOSU/UGA and Bama/Michigan are won by tOSU/Bama or UGA/Michigan then you end up with three non-rematch, non-regional games.
The dice are loaded in your favor anyway. Bama would be a substantial favorite over Michigan while tOSU would be a slight favorite over UGA. Either no upsets (most likely) or two upsets (least likely) gets you the title game you want (tOSU/Bama or UGA/Michigan). You only wind up with the rematch/regional title game that you don't want (Bama/UGA or tOSU/M) if you have exactly one semi-final upset.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #143 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:43:13 AM »

If UGA has a 30% chance of beating OSU and Michigan has a 30% chance of beating Bama, the odds of a rematch are less than 10%...

ELA · « **Reply #144 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:43:24 AM »

This is more fun when we wind up with Indiana in the CFP

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #145 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:43:41 AM »

Quote from: ELA on August 28, 2022, 09:54:08 AM

Alright, UM #3, Georgia #4, Clemson #5, Houston #6 it is

The one thing I didn't mention and probably should have is that it would likely hinge on a factor that you might have but that we aren't given in thuis simulation: MOV.

For Michigan specifically I think thus would matter a lot. Given their schedule, in this simulation their best win is over 9-4 #18 Iowa and that is their only win over a ranked team. Thus, I think a big part of the committee's evaluation of the Wolverines would be their MOV over Iowa and how close the loss to tOSU was.

If Michigan blew out Iowa and was so close to Ohio State that you could reasonably say "Hey they might have won at home or on a neutral field." then I think Michigan heads to the CFP. OTOH, if Michigan barely squeaked past Iowa on a FG as the clock expired and got completely outclassed in the Horseshoe then I think the committee would find a way to push them aside in favor of Houston, Clemson, Oklahoma, or Oregon.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #146 on:** August 29, 2022, 11:49:36 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 29, 2022, 11:43:13 AM

If UGA has a 30% chance of beating OSU and Michigan has a 30% chance of beating Bama, the odds of a rematch are less than 10%...

I think your math is off.

I frankly think that Georgia's chances of beating tOSU would be better than that and Michigan's chances of beating Alabama would be less than that but based on your 30% chance for each underdog the probabilities for the CG are:

49% tOSU/Bama
21% tOSU/M
21% UGA/Bama
9% UGA/M

So there is a 42% chance of a rematch.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #147 on:** August 29, 2022, 12:01:56 PM »

I didn't consider the OSU/UM as being a rematch. But it is, my bad.

ELA · « **Reply #148 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:17:54 PM »

CFP National Championship
January 9, 2023
ESPN College Gameday, live from Los Angeles, CA
#1 OHIO STATE d. #2 Alabama

rolltidefan · « **Reply #149 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:23:31 PM »

this game is rigged.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #150 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:23:36 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 30, 2022, 12:17:54 PM

CFP National Championship
January 9, 2023
ESPN College Gameday, live from Los Angeles, CA
#1 OHIO STATE d. #2 Alabama

Liked x1,000,000,000,000

ELA · « **Reply #151 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:32:30 PM »

Final Poll

OHIO STATE (15-0) 1
Alabama (13-2) 2
MICHIGAN (11-2) 3
Georgia (12-2) 4
Clemson (12-2) 5
Oregon (12-2) 8
Ole Miss (11-2) 9
North Carolina (11-3) 10
Pittsburgh (11-2) 14
Oklahoma (11-3) 7
Houston (13-1) 6
Tennessee (10-3) 12
Notre Dame (10-3) 15
Texas A&M (9-4) 11
Oklahoma State (10-4) 17
Washington (10-3) 20
Auburn (9-4) 23
USC (9-4) 22
Cincinnati (11-2) 13
WISCONSIN (9-4) 16
MINNESOTA (9-4) -
Florida State (9-4) -
IOWA (9-5) 18
Miami (9-4) 19
UCLA (9-4) -

Abba · « **Reply #152 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:45:36 PM »

So if this were to happen (which it can't now), I think only Locksley of MD would be fired. The seat might be hot for Frost, Fitzgerald, and Allen, but I don't think they'd be fired yet.

FearlessF · « **Reply #153 on:** August 30, 2022, 12:52:42 PM »

well, since Frost didn't get beat by Northwestern, I'll agree

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Topic: 2022 SP+/FPI Game by Game simulation

ELA

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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ELA

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rolltidefan

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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Abba

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FearlessF

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