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I find it a bit odd that UGA was favored both times last year, I think they would not be in the above situation, but it'd be 3-4 points spread.

OSU would be 14 point favorites I think.  I agree that nearly all the country would prefer not seeing Bama in this time with UGA.  If they ended up paired in the NC game ...

Could spark some changes I guess, especially if the other two were UM/OSU.

Michigan would certainly like to make it, at least ahead of time.  From what I could see their fans were a bit shocked by last year's outcome.

Fun times.

So OSU, Georgia and Alabama are all in.

#4 Michigan (11-1) - no CCG appearance, lone loss on the road at #1 OSU
#5 Clemson (11-2) - beat UNC in the ACC CCG, but lost twice
#6 Houston (13-0) - Cincinnati opened the door last year, but Cincinnati won at ND and Indiana.  Houston's OOC wins are @Texas Tech and Kansas.  In conference they never played Cincinnati, and only played UCF at home in the CCG

I think Michigan is the most deserving, but the committee might look for a way to avoid 2 Big Ten and 2 SEC teams.  So they might elevate Clemson.  I think Houston is out

Week 15 standings

ACC
ATLANTIC

• Clemson (6-2) 11-2
• Florida State (5-3) 8-4
• Louisville (4-4) 7-5
• NC State (4-4) 7-5
• Syracuse (4-4) 7-5
• Wake Forest (4-4) 7-5
• Boston College (3-5) 5-7

COASTAL

• North Carolina (7-1) 10-3
• Pittsburgh (6-2) 10-2
• Miami (6-2) 9-3
• Virginia (3-5) 7-5
• Georgia Tech (2-6) 3-9
• Duke (1-7) 5-7
• Virginia Tech (1-7) 2-10

BIG XII

• Oklahoma (8-1) 11-2
• Oklahoma State (7-2) 9-4
• Baylor (6-3) 8-4
• Texas (5-4) 7-5
• Iowa State (4-5) 6-6
• TCU (4-5) 6-6
• Texas Tech (4-5) 6-6
• West Virginia (4-5) 6-6
• Kansas State (3-6) 5-7
• Kansas (0-9) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST

• Ohio State (9-0) 13-0
• Michigan (8-1) 11-1
• Michigan State (5-4) 7-5
• Penn State (4-5) 6-6
• Indiana (3-6) 4-8
• Rutgers (1-8) 4-8
• Maryland (1-8) 3-9

WEST

• Iowa (6-3) 9-4
• Wisconsin (6-3) 9-3
• Purdue (6-3) 8-4
• Minnesota (5-4) 8-4
• Nebraska (5-4) 8-4
• Illinois (2-7) 4-8
• Northwestern (2-7) 3-9

PAC 12
NORTH

• Oregon (8-1) 10-2
• Washington (6-3) 9-3
• Oregon State (4-5) 7-5
• Stanford (4-5) 5-7
• California (3-6) 5-7
• Washington State (3-6) 4-8

SOUTH

• Utah (6-3) 9-3
• USC (6-3) 8-4
• Arizona State (5-4) 8-4
• UCLA (5-4) 8-4
• Arizona (3-6) 5-7
• Colorado (1-8) 1-11

SEC
EAST

• Georgia (8-0) 12-1
• Tennessee (6-2) 9-3
• Kentucky (4-4) 7-5
• Florida (3-5) 5-7
• Missouri (1-7) 4-8
• South Carolina (1-7) 3-9
• Vanderbilt (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Alabama (7-1) 12-1
• Ole Miss (6-2) 10-2
• Texas A&M (5-3) 9-3
• Auburn (4-4) 8-4
• Mississippi State (4-4) 7-5
• LSU (3-5) 7-5
• Arkansas (3-5) 5-7

AMERICAN

• Houston (8-0) 13-0
• Central Florida (7-1) 10-3
• Cincinnati (7-1) 11-1
• South Florida (6-2) 7-5
• Memphis (5-3) 8-4
• Tulane (3-5) 6-6
• Navy (3-5) 4-8
• SMU (2-6) 6-6
• East Carolina (2-6) 4-8
• Tulsa (1-7) 4-8
• Temple (0-8) 2-10

CONFERENCE USA

• Western Kentucky (7-1) 12-2
• UTSA (7-1) 8-5
• UAB (6-2) 9-3
• Louisiana Tech (5-3) 7-5
• Florida Atlantic (4-4) 6-6
• UTEP (4-4) 5-7
• Middle Tennessee (3-5) 5-7
• North Texas (3-5) 5-7
• FIU (2-6) 4-8
• Rice (2-6) 3-9
• Charlotte (1-7) 2-10

MAC
EAST

• Akron (6-2) 7-6
• Buffalo (5-3) 7-5
• Kent State (5-3) 6-6
• Miami(Ohio) (4-4) 6-6
• Ohio (2-6) 4-8
• Bowling Green (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Western Michigan (7-1) 9-4
• Toledo (7-1) 9-3
• Ball State (3-5) 5-7
• Northern Illinois (3-5) 5-7
• Eastern Michigan (3-5) 5-7
• Central Michigan (2-6) 4-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

• Colorado State (7-1) 10-3
• Air Force (6-2) 9-3
• Boise State (6-2) 9-3
• Utah State (5-3) 7-5
• Wyoming (3-5) 4-8
• New Mexico (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• San Diego State (6-2) 10-3
• Fresno State (6-2) 9-3
• San Jose State (3-5) 6-6
• Hawaii (3-5) 6-7
• UNLV (2-6) 3-9
• Nevada (1-7) 3-9

SUN BELT
EAST

• Appalachian State (7-1) 10-3
• Marshall (7-1) 10-2
• Coastal Carolina (5-3) 7-5
• Georgia State (5-3) 7-5
• Old Dominion (4-4) 6-6
• Georgia Southern (3-5) 5-7
• James Madison (0-8) 1-10

WEST

• Louisiana (6-2) 9-4
• Southern Miss (5-3) 8-4
• Arkansas State (5-3) 7-5
• Texas State (3-5) 5-7
• Troy (3-5) 4-8
• South Alabama (2-6) 3-9
• UL Monroe (1-7) 2-10

INDEPENDENTS

• Army (10-2)
• Notre Dame (9-3)
• Liberty (8-4)
• BYU (7-5)
• Massachusetts (5-7)
• NM State (4-8)
• Connecticut (1-11)

Leaving 3/4/5 as is, but open to changing based on feedback.  If we don't get any, I'll likely just flip Georgia/Michigan, and that's the playoff
December 4 Poll

• OHIO STATE (13-0) 1
• Alabama (12-1) 3
• Georgia (12-1) 2
• MICHIGAN (11-1) 4
• Clemson (11-2) 5
• Houston (13-0) 6
• Oklahoma (11-2) 9
• Oregon (11-2) 10

That fourth spot is tough.

Houston is undefeated but their schedule is crap, even worse than Cincy last year.

Clemson, Oklahoma, and Oregon are all P5 Champs but all have two losses and differentiating between them is tricky as well.

Michigan isn't a Champion and didn't even make their CG but their loss is as good as can be so I think it is them.

I agree with you that the committee would then flip UGA/Michigan to avoid a double rematch. IMHO that is a big advantage for Bama because they end up as the only one of the Big3 not playing another in the semi-final.

Yeah, I think they'd avoid two rematches.  I think Ohio State will beat UGA, but that would still be a decent season for the Dawgs.

Two 5-7 teams (Florida and Arkansas), needed to fill it out.  Every 6-6 or better team got a bid.

WHAT!?!?!?!