header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis

 (Read 2083 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« on: August 22, 2022, 08:43:54 PM »
In the Power Rankings threads I always include a table that shows each team's opponents and whether they are played at home (H) or on the road (A).  I got that chart ready for this year because I'm getting ready to start doing Power Rankings threads.  For now this is sorted by SI's preseason B1G Power Rankings:

It reads down not across so for example, in the tOSU column, the #1 Buckeyes have the #2 Wolverines at home on 11/26 and the #3 Spartans on the road on 10/8.  

As a way of trying to quantify the impact of schedule I adopted a system similar to the tiers that we use for BB.  I assumed that each team would win home games and lose road games against teams ranked within +/- two spots of themselves and lose to all the teams better than that and beat all the teams below that.  

Example:
#7 Minnesota should win at home or lose on the road against #5 Iowa, #6 Penn State, #8 Nebraska, and #9 Purdue.  

  • They play Iowa and Purdue at home so I've assumed that they'll win those but they play Penn State and Nebraska on the road so I've assumed that they'll lose those.  2-2.  
  • They play two teams better than that (MSU, UW) and I've assumed they'll lose both of those regardless of location.  0-2.  
  • They play three teams worse than that (IL, RU, NU) and I've assumed they'll win all of those regardless of location.  3-0.  
That adds up to a projected 5-4 for Minnesota.  

Using that method, here are projected final standings:
B1G West:
  • 6-3 Iowa (losses to tOSU, M, MN), wins tie with UW based on H2H.  
  • 6-3 Wisconsin (losses in Columbus, East Lansing, and Iowa City).  
  • 5-4 Minnesota (losses to MSU, UW, PSU, UNL).  
  • 5-4 Nebraska (losses to M, UW, IA, PU).  
  • 3-6 Purdue (wins over UNL, IU, NU).  
  • 2-7 Illinois (wins over PU, NU).  
  • 0-9 Northwestern
B1G East:
  • 8-1 Ohio State (loss in East Lansing), wins tie with MSU and M, see below.  
  • 8-1 Michigan (loss in Columbus).  
  • 8-1 Michigan State (loss in Ann Arbor).  
  • 6-3 Penn State (losses to tOSU, M, MSU).  
  • 4-5 Maryland (wins over PU, RU, IU, NU).  
  • 1-8 Rutgers (win over IU)
  • 1-8 Indiana (win over IL)

This particular 3-way tie is inordinately complicated.  The tiebreaker steps for a three-team tie are:
  • H2H2H.  All three are 1-1 so we move to
  • Divisional record.  All three are 5-1 so we move to
  • Record of each against the next highest placed teams in the division in order of finish.  All three are 1-0 against each other divisional opponent so we move to
  • Record against all common conference opponents.  In this case that is simply the other four teams in the division and all three are 4-0 so we move to
  • Cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  Miraculously this is also tied.  tOSU played 6-3 UW, 6-3 IA, and 0-9 NU, 12-15.  M played 6-3 IA, 5-4 UNL, and 1-8 IL, 12-15.  MSU played 6-3 UW, 5-4 MN, and 1-8 IL, 12-15.  Thus we move to
  • Record against the highest placed team(s) in the other division with the specific notation that 1-0 IS better than 0-0 and 2-0 IS better than 1-0.  The highest placed teams in the other division are UW and IA.  M beat Iowa, MSU beat UW, and tOSU beat both UW and IA so the Buckeyes are 2-0 while the Wolverines and Spartans are each 1-0 so the Buckeyes would get to Indianapolis based on tiebreaker #6.  


FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37567
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2022, 08:46:07 PM »
5-4 Nebraska (losses to M, UW, IA, PU). 

I could handle this, so could Coach Frost
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20340
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2022, 09:47:34 PM »
The tier gaps are much wider in football.  I would say the higher tier wins every game.  Home field just determines games within the same tier

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2022, 12:02:08 PM »
My view of the schedules:

Ohio State:
Getting Michigan and three of their four toughest opponents at home is great. PSU and MSU on the road are the toughest games.

Michigan:
Traveling to Columbus sucks of course but but hosting their next three toughest divisional opponents (MSU, PSU, UMD) is nice and this schedule gives Michigan a pretty easy path to ten wins.

Michigan State:
Traveling to Ann Arbor and Happy Valley sucks and it gets a lot worse if the Spartans aren't able to beat the Buckeyes and/or the Badgers at home. In the not unlikely event that the Spartans lose all four of those they'll have to be perfect the rest of the way just to finish on the right side of. 500.

Wisconsin:
The Badgers have a very tough schedule thus year with their three toughest opponents and four of their five toughest on the road. If they lose in Iowa City and either Columbus or East Lansing they'll need a LOT of help to get to Indianapolis. 

Iowa:
Getting Wisconsin at home should help Iowa in their quest to repeat as the B1G-W's representative in Indianapolis. If they beat the Badgers and go at least 3-2 in the games @tOSU, vM, @MN, @UNL, @PU they'll probably get to Indianapolis at 7-2.

Penn State:
As I've said before, I think their opener in West Lafayette on September 1 is crucial for both teams. If Penn State wins then they should also win the home game against Minnesota and the four games against lesser teams. That makes 6-3 an absolute floor with two out of the other three (tOSU, MSU) at home. A 7-2 or better finish is likely and a trip to Indianapolis isn't altogether unlikely. Conversely, if they lose in West Lafayette I could see them finishing closer to .500.

Minnesota:
The Gophers have their two toughest opponents and four of their five toughest (MSU, UW, PSU, UNL) on the road, that isn't a likely path to Indy.

Nebraska:
The trips to Ann Arbor and Madison suck but they get Iowa and Minnesota at home which helps. I think that 7-2 should be enough to win the West and that isn't implausible for the Huskers. 

Purdue:
The September 1 opener is as crucial for the Boilermakers as it is for PSU. Purdue's big advantage is that they don't have to play Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State AND they get their toughest BIG-E opponent (PSU)  at home. If they can beat PSU then 7-2 and a trip to Indy is plausible but if not . . .

Maryland:
The best news for the Terps is that they get PU and RU at home. If they win those two, win in Bloomington, and beat Northwestern at home then 4-5 is the floor and they are only one upset from finishing above .500.

Illinois:
If the Illini are a bottom feeder this schedule sucks because their two easiest opponents are on the road. However, if they are improved it could be advantageous because they'll have HFA where they need it (PU, MN, IA, MSU).

Rutgers:
They get four of their five easiest games at home which is probably an advantage for them. 

Indiana:
If they can win in Piscataway then they should probably beat Illinois, Maryland, and Purdue at home. That makes four wins and they are just one upset from finishing above. 500.

Northwestern:
IMHO, this schedule is a nightmare for the Wildcats. They don't get Indiana or Rutgers at all. They only have three home games (tOSU, UW, IL) and they would probably lose two of those irrespective of location. Six of their seven easiest opponents are away from home. 

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2022, 01:17:00 PM »
As much as I would love to see Iowa win the West again, If they only win it with a 6-3 conference record,  I would rather the Big Ten change their rules now to have the top 2 teams go to the CCG, even if that means an OSU-Mich rematch.  Not because I am afraid of a blowout,  I would just rather see the 2 most deserving teams make it to the CCG.

With that said, the Big Ten has never had a division winner with 3 losses, although last year we came close.  So it could happen one day.  And it should be noted that one year Wisc made the CCG with 4 losses, but Wisc was not technically the division winner that year.

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2022, 02:46:29 AM »
This particular 3-way tie is inordinately complicated.  The tiebreaker steps for a three-team tie are:
  • H2H2H.  All three are 1-1 so we move to
  • Divisional record.  All three are 5-1 so we move to
  • Record of each against the next highest placed teams in the division in order of finish.  All three are 1-0 against each other divisional opponent so we move to
  • Record against all common conference opponents.  In this case that is simply the other four teams in the division and all three are 4-0 so we move to
  • Cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  Miraculously this is also tied.  tOSU played 6-3 UW, 6-3 IA, and 0-9 NU, 12-15.  M played 6-3 IA, 5-4 UNL, and 1-8 IL, 12-15.  MSU played 6-3 UW, 5-4 MN, and 1-8 IL, 12-15.  Thus we move to
  • Record against the highest placed team(s) in the other division with the specific notation that 1-0 IS better than 0-0 and 2-0 IS better than 1-0.  The highest placed teams in the other division are UW and IA.  M beat Iowa, MSU beat UW, and tOSU beat both UW and IA so the Buckeyes are 2-0 while the Wolverines and Spartans are each 1-0 so the Buckeyes would get to Indianapolis based on tiebreaker #6. 


Wow that is a complicated tie breaker.  It's almost tempting to just play rock-paper-scissors-Lizard-Spock at that point.  It would be about as fair.  But I guess the argument that OSU was only team to beat the 2 best teams in west is as good as any other tiebreaker at that point.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37567
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2022, 12:48:33 PM »
As much as I would love to see Iowa win the West again, If they only win it with a 6-3 conference record,  I would rather the Big Ten change their rules now to have the top 2 teams go to the CCG, even if that means an OSU-Mich rematch.  Not because I am afraid of a blowout,  I would just rather see the 2 most deserving teams make it to the CCG.

so, how do you select the top 2 teams?  simply number of losses?  AP ranking?
I like the idea of a reward for winning the division
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1367
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2022, 04:25:10 PM »
so, how do you select the top 2 teams?  simply number of losses?  AP ranking?
I like the idea of a reward for winning the division
Well the division winner still can get a trophy.  Just not an automatic spot in the CCG.

The 2 teams in the CCG would be decided the same way Medina figured out who wins each division.  Overall conference records, then tiebreakers. 

In Medina's hypothetical, OSU wins the first tiebreaker with its 2-0 record against Iowa, Wisc.  The 2nd tiebreaker goes to Mich since it beat MSU H2H.  MSU pretty much gets screwed.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37567
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2022, 05:08:33 PM »
we don't need no stinkin trophies

we want a shot at the conference championship
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20340
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2022, 06:16:44 PM »
we don't need no stinkin trophies

we want a shot at the conference championship
Which I kind of hate.  I loved growing up that a generally meaningless game against Minnesota was for a trophy.  They also baked those into the NCAA Football video games.  But again, everything that isn't the CFP is pointless

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37567
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2022, 07:19:10 PM »
well, a jug or an ax or a rivalry trophy won't go away

I just don't need to substitute a trophy for a shot at a conference championship

but, sadly, conferences are much to large for logical means of crowning a champion
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20340
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2022, 08:40:41 PM »
well, a jug or an ax or a rivalry trophy won't go away

I just don't need to substitute a trophy for a shot at a conference championship

but, sadly, conferences are much to large for logical means of crowning a champion
Well, and you can't fluke your way into a shared one anymore.  CCGs suck

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37567
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2022, 08:49:18 PM »
shared don't count, there's always a tie-breaker

Huskers shared a few Big 8 titles back in the day, but when the tie-breaker was head to head with the Sooners, everyone knew it didn't count
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 B1G Schedule analysis
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2022, 09:24:44 PM »
shared don't count, there's always a tie-breaker

Huskers shared a few Big 8 titles back in the day, but when the tie-breaker was head to head with the Sooners, everyone knew it didn't count
For the individual year I generally agree but for streaks I disagree. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.