I saw some ESPiN thing giving UGA a 58% change of beating OSU, which of course is near enough to a coin flip as to make whatever methodology used to be silly really. Historically, a 7 point favorite wins about 2/3rds of the time, which I think is less than many would expect. So, a third of the time we call it an upset, a suprise, a shock even.
Not really. Outcomes in competitive games often hinge on the unpredictable.