Good win, I had your boys -2.5
This and Northwestern are the key first round wins for our league.
As I showed before the Tournament began, this group of seeds (1, 4, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10) typically results in just under five teams making it to the second round (4.87) and just over two making it to the S16 (2.11).
I saw a high potential for variability though because six of the eight are middling (7-10) seeds with a close to coin-flip probability:
- #7 wins 61% of first round games
- #9 wins 52% of first round games
- #8 wins 48% of first round games
- #10 wins 39% of first round games
We had two #7's, two #8's, a #9, and a #10. On average those typically generate just over three wins (3.09) and we got four.
Our last two teams to play are a #1 which has a 99.3% chance to win and a #4 which has a 79% chance to win.
Our challenge going forward is that 7-10 seeds have a terrible record in second round games. 7's, 8's, and 10's that make it to the second round have only a 31%, 21%, and 41% chance of winning. Still, based on past tournaments, our two #7's, #8, and #10 should be good for 1.2 S16's.