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Topic: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1246 on: March 11, 2023, 09:23:38 AM »
OSU has got run out of gas at some point.  Today OSU will be playing its 4th day in a row,  while Purdue will be playing just it's 2nd day in a row.
I agree. I expected it to happen yesterday against Michigan State. 
I'm rooting for an OSU/PSU final.
For obvious reasons I am too. 

An instate final between the two Indiana schools is most likely but if we assume that Indiana and Purdue each have a 70% chance to win then:
  • 49% chance of IU/PU
  • 21% chance of IU/tOSU
  • 21% chance of PU/PSU
  • 9% chance of tOSU/PSU


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1247 on: March 11, 2023, 09:31:28 AM »
According to Boyd's Bets https://www.boydsbets.com/college-basketball-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/
(random internet search result):

  • A 7.5 point favorite (Purdue) has a 78% chance to win.
  • A 3 point favorite (Indiana) has a 61% chance to win.
Based on those figures, the chances for the four different final matches are:
  • 47% PU/IU
  • 30% PU/PSU
  • 13% tOSU/IU
  • 9% tOSU/PSU


bayareabadger

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1248 on: March 11, 2023, 10:58:26 AM »
Trying to run through some thoughts about the functionally over UW season (for my catharsis).

This team was supposed to be one that would have to grind its way to the tournament. It returned three starters, only added two of the three transfers it wanted. The hope, I think, was to use those three as crutches, have them play well enough to lead the team to the dance with some support. 

That kind of happened in the first half, even if they were playing worse than their record. Then in the second half, they just couldn't close one too many times. It's interesting because this is probably one of the worst years UW has had in terms of top guys playing like top guys, and it's worth digging a little more into things player-by-player.

Tyler Wahl - A taller, non-shooting power forward, he was the top returning scorer. I think the idea was that he'd be a second or third option as Crowl and Hepburn stepped up, but they did not. It also didn't help that Wahl, whose whole deal is flipping up shots in the post, just kept rolling shots off the rim (and then getting frustrated and forcing things).

So you ended up with a high-usage guy whose efficiency cratered. He was also the backup center and spent half the year dribbling off screens at the end of the clock. Not ideal. 

Chucky Hepburn - I thought he'd grow into a traditional UW point guard. If he wasn't the best shot creator this year, I assumed he'd at least be efficient. He was neither. He turned in one of the worst numerical efficiency seasons at the position in the past two decades, despite good 3-point shooting, low turnovers and above assist number. Simply put, the easiest way this team could be dancing was him, I think the most talented player, playing better, which I think he can and should next year. 

Steven Crowl - His post game, rebounding and overall play came together somewhat nicely, even with some spacing issues. But his shooting was a big, big problem. Last year, he was a so-so 32 percent from 3 and a nice 80 percent from the line. That fell to 28 from 3 and 60 from the line. This meant UW was a considerably worse spacing team, he was a much worse screening option and you were more gun-shy about him going all out in the post. He was probably UW's most effective player, but but one metric was the worst "best" player on a UW team as far back as the stat goes (and realistically back to the Dick Bennett era)

Max Klesmit - A mid-major (low-major?) transfer, he showed up and was a pretty good shooting guard. Good enough defender, good shooter, ok secondary ball-handler, did the job. Efficiency was a bit low, I think owing to somewhat low free-throw shooting
(both guards shooting worse than 70 percent, oy). Also a bit streaky. Still, a nice No. 4 guy. 

Connor Essegian - Showed up as a lightly-regarded freshman, had moments when he was a flat-out offensive flamethrower. Great release, good shooter, can shoot off platform. He's a true freshman, and 90 percent of the shots he takes seem fine. It a comically bad defender, and tailed off a bit late, which would be less impactful if this team wasn't a hair from making the tournament. I'm happy he's in Madison and looking forward to him loading up on local NIL when Kentucky tries to tamper. 

Jordan Davis - At times, he was a nice wing defender and also popped as a cutter. Overall, a bit spacey and very inconsistent. Credit to him for not turning it over and making a few plays, but you can't shoot 32 percent from 3, not get to the line and not hit free throws. He lost a starting spot, and while I'd like him to stick around, I wouldn't be surprised if he left. (He also made a defensive mistake that contributed to a very lucky shot in a loss, but it's also worth noting, the shot was stupid lucky)

Carter Gilmore - A former walk-on who has been thrust into a bad space. He's a really nice, switchy defensive forward who knows what he's doing, which means another big has to hit a certain floor before he plays. It also means Gilmore is a 6-7 former walk-on defending Big Ten players who has yet to translate apparent practice shooting skill into game skill. Basically, he'd be a great 9th man, good enough 8th man, but was the 7th man and first big off the bench. I think he probably sticks around, but if he wanted to go be a good Horizon League guy, couldn't blame him. 

Kamari McGee - A UW-Green Bay transfer, they got him because they hoped he could be a competent backup point guard. For most of the year he wasn't, late in the year, he was OK enough. He shot 24 percent from 3 and generally wasn't good. I think he could grow into a nice backup, but I could also see him leaving for a better opportunity and would not blame him. 

Isaac Lindsey - A walk-on (who got a one-year scholarship) and in essence mostly played because McGee couldn't hold down the job. Kid has a lot of gunner in him, but probably too small and slight to see real minutes. Nice guy to have in the back pocket, even if him playing means issues in the front pocket. Could be a nice Mid-Major guard if he wants. 

Markus Ilver - Skinny stretch 4 who has some offensive skill. Simply wasn't consistent enough in shooting to make up for being to skinny and inexperienced on defense. Would be unsurprised if he leaves. 

Chris Hodges - Thick, squat center type who flat out wasn't ready and was a foul machine when he played. I think there's some promise there, but is a prime transfer candidate. Simply put, this team had no backup center, and he played 29 minutes (the lack of blowouts didn't help)

Other than them, Jahcobi Neath played a bit but was again mostly hurt. Guessing he filters off the roster. 

Assuming Wahl is back, Neath departs for health reasons and Lindsey comes off scholarship, they're at 13 scholarships. Early rumors are they expect to add two transfers, most likely one big and one taller wing. So that means at least two departures. I'd put my bet on more. 


Riffraft

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1249 on: March 11, 2023, 11:20:05 AM »
Gene Smith is out stumping for an NIT bid. Apparently you don't need a winning record?
Changed it it 2017

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1250 on: March 11, 2023, 11:36:13 AM »
Trying to run through some thoughts about the functionally over UW season (for my catharsis).

This team was supposed to be one that would have to grind its way to the tournament. It returned three starters, only added two of the three transfers it wanted. The hope, I think, was to use those three as crutches, have them play well enough to lead the team to the dance with some support.

That kind of happened in the first half, even if they were playing worse than their record. Then in the second half, they just couldn't close one too many times. It's interesting because this is probably one of the worst years UW has had in terms of top guys playing like top guys, and it's worth digging a little more into things player-by-player.

Tyler Wahl - A taller, non-shooting power forward, he was the top returning scorer. I think the idea was that he'd be a second or third option as Crowl and Hepburn stepped up, but they did not. It also didn't help that Wahl, whose whole deal is flipping up shots in the post, just kept rolling shots off the rim (and then getting frustrated and forcing things).

So you ended up with a high-usage guy whose efficiency cratered. He was also the backup center and spent half the year dribbling off screens at the end of the clock. Not ideal.

Chucky Hepburn - I thought he'd grow into a traditional UW point guard. If he wasn't the best shot creator this year, I assumed he'd at least be efficient. He was neither. He turned in one of the worst numerical efficiency seasons at the position in the past two decades, despite good 3-point shooting, low turnovers and above assist number. Simply put, the easiest way this team could be dancing was him, I think the most talented player, playing better, which I think he can and should next year.

Steven Crowl - His post game, rebounding and overall play came together somewhat nicely, even with some spacing issues. But his shooting was a big, big problem. Last year, he was a so-so 32 percent from 3 and a nice 80 percent from the line. That fell to 28 from 3 and 60 from the line. This meant UW was a considerably worse spacing team, he was a much worse screening option and you were more gun-shy about him going all out in the post. He was probably UW's most effective player, but but one metric was the worst "best" player on a UW team as far back as the stat goes (and realistically back to the Dick Bennett era)

Max Klesmit - A mid-major (low-major?) transfer, he showed up and was a pretty good shooting guard. Good enough defender, good shooter, ok secondary ball-handler, did the job. Efficiency was a bit low, I think owing to somewhat low free-throw shooting
(both guards shooting worse than 70 percent, oy). Also a bit streaky. Still, a nice No. 4 guy.

Connor Essegian - Showed up as a lightly-regarded freshman, had moments when he was a flat-out offensive flamethrower. Great release, good shooter, can shoot off platform. He's a true freshman, and 90 percent of the shots he takes seem fine. It a comically bad defender, and tailed off a bit late, which would be less impactful if this team wasn't a hair from making the tournament. I'm happy he's in Madison and looking forward to him loading up on local NIL when Kentucky tries to tamper.

Jordan Davis - At times, he was a nice wing defender and also popped as a cutter. Overall, a bit spacey and very inconsistent. Credit to him for not turning it over and making a few plays, but you can't shoot 32 percent from 3, not get to the line and not hit free throws. He lost a starting spot, and while I'd like him to stick around, I wouldn't be surprised if he left. (He also made a defensive mistake that contributed to a very lucky shot in a loss, but it's also worth noting, the shot was stupid lucky)

Carter Gilmore - A former walk-on who has been thrust into a bad space. He's a really nice, switchy defensive forward who knows what he's doing, which means another big has to hit a certain floor before he plays. It also means Gilmore is a 6-7 former walk-on defending Big Ten players who has yet to translate apparent practice shooting skill into game skill. Basically, he'd be a great 9th man, good enough 8th man, but was the 7th man and first big off the bench. I think he probably sticks around, but if he wanted to go be a good Horizon League guy, couldn't blame him.

Kamari McGee - A UW-Green Bay transfer, they got him because they hoped he could be a competent backup point guard. For most of the year he wasn't, late in the year, he was OK enough. He shot 24 percent from 3 and generally wasn't good. I think he could grow into a nice backup, but I could also see him leaving for a better opportunity and would not blame him.

Isaac Lindsey - A walk-on (who got a one-year scholarship) and in essence mostly played because McGee couldn't hold down the job. Kid has a lot of gunner in him, but probably too small and slight to see real minutes. Nice guy to have in the back pocket, even if him playing means issues in the front pocket. Could be a nice Mid-Major guard if he wants.

Markus Ilver - Skinny stretch 4 who has some offensive skill. Simply wasn't consistent enough in shooting to make up for being to skinny and inexperienced on defense. Would be unsurprised if he leaves.

Chris Hodges - Thick, squat center type who flat out wasn't ready and was a foul machine when he played. I think there's some promise there, but is a prime transfer candidate. Simply put, this team had no backup center, and he played 29 minutes (the lack of blowouts didn't help)

Other than them, Jahcobi Neath played a bit but was again mostly hurt. Guessing he filters off the roster.

Assuming Wahl is back, Neath departs for health reasons and Lindsey comes off scholarship, they're at 13 scholarships. Early rumors are they expect to add two transfers, most likely one big and one taller wing. So that means at least two departures. I'd put my bet on more.


I think Gard will need to have some tough conversations.

Gilmore, Lindsey, Ilver and Hodges need to move on, or come off scholarship. Gilmore is also year-to-year, correct?

Neath, if healthy, can stay, right?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1251 on: March 11, 2023, 12:05:39 PM »
I think Gard will need to have some tough conversations.

Gilmore, Lindsey, Ilver and Hodges need to move on, or come off scholarship. Gilmore is also year-to-year, correct?

Neath, if healthy, can stay, right?
Hmmm. 

Gilmore I think is not year-to-year, and I don't think he needs to come off scholarship. He's frankly a useful piece. And I don't think you need to drill all the way down to running him off unless you just get a ton of good transfers (if even one of the true freshman bigs can play a rotation role, Gilmore is where he needs to be). 

Lindsey is scheduled to come off scholarship, but I'd put even odds on him getting it back when there's some attrition. 

Ilver and Hodges are basically in that limbo. I don't know the behind the scenes element. Is Hodges actually a year away? Ilver? I could see one staying just because you don't find enough guys to squeeze them out, but I could also see both saying "I don't think I'll get to where I want to here."

I'd assume Neath is done. He's totaled 250 or so pretty bad minutes the past two years. His knees are like paper mache. I assume if he wants to try somewhere else, he can go, and if he wants to stay, they'll give him a medical DQ and he can hang with the team and help out. 

Before any conversations, the big questions are going to be, does a starter get poached and how to Davis and McGee proceed? If a starter is outdoor greener pastures, a whole lot changes, especially in how you can recruit. 

Davis and McGee are wildcards. Davis is a useful guy, but he was benched, hasn't been the most serious about things and they're already after other wings. McGee has been a D-1 starter for a bad team, and could be playing more than a pro-rated 6 minutes a game. He'd have to fight a sit-out year, but some people make those choices. (Gilmore feels like a long shot to leave on his own, but we've seen crazier)

My best prediction is at least one of those two and one of the young bigs departs. Team chases two transfers. Then it depends on the feelings of other guys and if something really pops on the transfer side, but probably at least one more guy leaves. The issue is UW can't believably tell anyone "come in and a starting spot is wide open." (Though they should say "we see Wahl or Klesmit as a better fit off the bench"). So loading up on transfers enough to push all those guys out seems unlikely. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1252 on: March 11, 2023, 12:10:41 PM »
I think UW is primed to land some really nice transfers. The Varsity Collective is flush with cash now, which will help.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1253 on: March 11, 2023, 12:39:52 PM »
I think UW is primed to land some really nice transfers. The Varsity Collective is flush with cash now, which will help.
This just vibes, or inside info on names?

In basketball, I'm always gun-shy about expecting too much. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1254 on: March 11, 2023, 12:55:37 PM »
This just vibes, or inside info on names?

In basketball, I'm always gun-shy about expecting too much.
No inside info, I can think of a few. I wouldn't mind if Kobe Johnson wanted to come home.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1255 on: March 11, 2023, 02:26:13 PM »
So my youngest is almost one (April 4). She and I are each having a bottle 🍼 and watching the game. Her bottle has formula in it. Mine is a long neck  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1256 on: March 11, 2023, 02:29:55 PM »
In deference to Purdue because their play has been great, I the the fatigue factor is showing for Ohio State. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1257 on: March 11, 2023, 02:31:51 PM »
No answer for Edy.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1258 on: March 11, 2023, 02:33:03 PM »
game over
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1259 on: March 11, 2023, 02:33:52 PM »
At this point I think that Ohio State's only shot, to the extent that they have a shot, is to jack up a three every trip down and basically pray for an absurdly high percentage of them to drop.

 

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