2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

@medinabuckeye1 fascinating data on the BTT ... I will be referencing that this weekend when I place some wagers on the games.  Very insightful.

Hope it works out for you but as the financial planners all say, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

[boilerbanger]

I put some money on the 2,3,4 & 8 seed to win the BTT ... after looking at your data it is really hard to believe the 3 seed has never won.  Purdue must have been the 3 seed a couple times making it to the finals.

[boilerbanger]

One of the spokespeople says it’s bunk?

Either way, Rutgets has to beat Michigan I think to have a chance.

[medinabuckeye1]

Yup, that's why I was so shocked by the Virginia-UMBC upset.  I didn't think that would ever happen.  Not because the gap between 1 and 2 is so big, but between 15 and 16.  15s are usually the best team from a really bad conference, or a middling team from a higher rated mid-major, like when a random team wins the MVC, or WCC, or CUSA.  But the 16s are usually lower seeded teams from bad conferences.  A 3rd seed from the SWAC or whatever.

I agree with most of this but my analysis of performance by seed suggests that there actually IS a very big difference between #1 and #2.

In the 37 tournaments since expansion to 64 teams (1985-2022 less 2020) there have been 148 of each seed.
Comparing 1's and 2's, first round:

• 1's are 147-1, .993 against 16's
• 2's are 138-10, .932 against 15's

Second round:

• 1's are 126-21, .857 against 8/9
• 2's are 93-45, .674 against 7/10

S16:

• 1's are 101-25, .802 against 4/5/12/13
• 2's are 67-26, .720 against 3/6/11/14

E8:

• 1's are 61-40, .604 against 2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15
• 2's are 31-36, .463 against 1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16

F4:

• 1's are 38-23, .623 against 1-16
• 2's are 12-19, .387 against 1-16

CG:

• 1's are 24-14, .632 against 1-16
• 2's are 5-7, .417 against 1-16

Those are significant gaps and note that the gap gets widest in the F4 where it cannot be explained by quality of opposition.

As see it as the converse of the fact that the very worst team in the B1G, in any given year, is usually REALLY bad.

My working theory is that there usually aren't more than four just EXTREMELY good teams so all of the EXTREMELY good teams are #1 seeds. #2's are flawed teams. They are very good flawed teams but they have discernable flaws.

I think of it this way:
If my team is decent, say 7-10 range and runs into a #2 in the tournament, my team probably has an advantage somewhere. It might only be one thing but, as a fan, I'm basically hoping that my coach can find and exploit the advantage.

If my same team runs into a #1 there probably aren't any advantages for my team and I'm relegated to basically just hoping that they have an off night.

[medinabuckeye1]

My guess:
Wednesday:

• 13 tOSU > UW
• 11 UNL > MN

Thursday:

• 8 M > 9 RU
• 13 tOSU > 5 IA
• 7 IL > 10 PSU
• 6 UMD > 11 UNL

Friday:

• 8 M > 1 PU
• 4 MSU > 13 tOSU
• 7 IL > 2 NU
• 6 UMD > 3 IU

Saturday:

• 4 MSU > 8 M
• 6 UMD > 7 IL

Sunday:

• 4 MSU > 6 UMD

[ELA]

I agree with most of this but my analysis of performance by seed suggests that there actually IS a very big difference between #1 and #2.

In the 37 tournaments since expansion to 64 teams (1985-2022 less 2020) there have been 148 of each seed.
Comparing 1's and 2's, first round:

• 1's are 147-1, .993 against 16's
• 2's are 138-10, .932 against 15's

Second round:

• 1's are 126-21, .857 against 8/9
• 2's are 93-45, .674 against 7/10

S16:

• 1's are 101-25, .802 against 4/5/12/13
• 2's are 67-26, .720 against 3/6/11/14

E8:

• 1's are 61-40, .604 against 2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15
• 2's are 31-36, .463 against 1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16

F4:

• 1's are 38-23, .623 against 1-16
• 2's are 12-19, .387 against 1-16

CG:

• 1's are 24-14, .632 against 1-16
• 2's are 5-7, .417 against 1-16

Those are significant gaps and note that the gap gets widest in the F4 where it cannot be explained by quality of opposition.

As see it as the converse of the fact that the very worst team in the B1G, in any given year, is usually REALLY bad.

My working theory is that there usually aren't more than four just EXTREMELY good teams so all of the EXTREMELY good teams are #1 seeds. #2's are flawed teams. They are very good flawed teams but they have discernable flaws.

I think of it this way:
If my team is decent, say 7-10 range and runs into a #2 in the tournament, my team probably has an advantage somewhere. It might only be one thing but, as a fan, I'm basically hoping that my coach can find and exploit the advantage.

If my same team runs into a #1 there probably aren't any advantages for my team and I'm relegated to basically just hoping that they have an off night.

I would be curious to see the average KenPom rating (not ranking) by seed.  My guess is the largest gap would be between #15 and #16

[ELA]

My guess:
Wednesday:

• 13 tOSU > UW
• 11 UNL > MN

Thursday:

• 8 M > 9 RU
• 13 tOSU > 5 IA
• 7 IL > 10 PSU
• 6 UMD > 11 UNL

Friday:

• 8 M > 1 PU
• 4 MSU > 13 tOSU
• 7 IL > 2 NU
• 6 UMD > 3 IU

Saturday:

• 4 MSU > 8 M
• 6 UMD > 7 IL

Sunday:

• 4 MSU > 6 UMD

My thoughts...

• #12 Wisconsin d. #13 Ohio State
• #11 Nebraska d. #14 Minnesota

• #8 Michigan d. #9 Rutgers
• #12 Wisconsin d. #5 Iowa
• #10 Penn State d. #7 Illinois
• #6 Maryland d. #11 Nebraska

• #1 Purdue d. #8 Michigan
• #4 Michigan State d. #12 Wisconsin
• #10 Penn State d. #2 Northwestern
• #6 Maryland d. #3 Indiana

• #1 Purdue d. #4 Michigan State
• #6 Maryland d. #10 Penn State

• #1 Purdue d. #6 Maryland

[boilerbanger]

My thoughts...

• #12 Wisconsin d. #13 Ohio State
• #11 Nebraska d. #14 Minnesota

• #8 Michigan d. #9 Rutgers
• #12 Wisconsin d. #5 Iowa
• #10 Penn State d. #7 Illinois
• #6 Maryland d. #11 Nebraska

• #1 Purdue d. #8 Michigan
• #4 Michigan State d. #12 Wisconsin
• #10 Penn State d. #2 Northwestern
• #6 Maryland d. #3 Indiana

• #1 Purdue d. #4 Michigan State
• #6 Maryland d. #10 Penn State

• #1 Purdue d. #6 Maryland

I approve of these thoughts

[betarhoalphadelta]

Maybe a programs success shouldn't be measured by FFs and NCs, if they played a series like the NBA, the outcomes would surely be different and the "better" teams would prevail more frequently.  But it is a 1 and done situation, it takes luck, good match ups and the starts aligning a bit for team to make it.

I guess if you want to be OUT on the Boilers, no problem.  But I just view success in a different light I guess and I am very proud of not only the product he puts on the floor but how he goes about putting that product on the floor.  Will his more recent success and top 5 ranking consistency help him pull in some more talented players out of high school?  That is TBD and how they plug into the program is TBD.  He has built a program to be proud of, wins and loses happen, I hate losing as much as the next guy, but there are good players and good coaches on the opposite side of the court trying to win the same game you are playing.

Bear in mind that me being out is a personal thing, not a reflection on Painter or the program. 

As fans, we become emotionally invested in the outcome of our teams.

For me growing up in the Chicago suburbs, I would always be considered a "Cubs fan", but in reality I was not really a baseball fan to any reasonable degree, and the Cubs were the "lovable losers", so it's not like I actually had expectations. So I wasn't really emotionally invested to where a loss (even the Bartman ball collapse) actually got to me emotionally. 

It's not the case with Purdue. Purdue is a basketball school. Purdue has history. Purdue has put some REALLY good teams on the floor over the years. Painter is a really good coach. There are expectations. And it being my alma mater means that I was heavily emotionally invested in the outcomes. Probably too much so. 

The 2019 loss was a gut punch, but I get it. I respect the heck out of UVA and Bennett. They were the 1 seed; Purdue was the 2. It felt like in that one that maybe it finally might be our time--which was the exact same thing UVA fans were thinking. That one hurt, but I walked away thinking we gave our best shot and it just wasn't enough. 

2022? No, I walked away after that with a feeling of complete and total disgust. I walked away from that thinking: "Nope. They're never, ever going to do it. I'm not going to let them get my hopes up--and then dash them--ever again."

So I went the other direction. No expectations. No interest. Harden my heart. They can win. They can lose. But if I'm no longer emotionally invested, I can't be hurt. 

[boilerbanger]

Bear in mind that me being out is a personal thing, not a reflection on Painter or the program.

As fans, we become emotionally invested in the outcome of our teams.

For me growing up in the Chicago suburbs, I would always be considered a "Cubs fan", but in reality I was not really a baseball fan to any reasonable degree, and the Cubs were the "lovable losers", so it's not like I actually had expectations. So I wasn't really emotionally invested to where a loss (even the Bartman ball collapse) actually got to me emotionally.

It's not the case with Purdue. Purdue is a basketball school. Purdue has history. Purdue has put some REALLY good teams on the floor over the years. Painter is a really good coach. There are expectations. And it being my alma mater means that I was heavily emotionally invested in the outcomes. Probably too much so.

The 2019 loss was a gut punch, but I get it. I respect the heck out of UVA and Bennett. They were the 1 seed; Purdue was the 2. It felt like in that one that maybe it finally might be our time--which was the exact same thing UVA fans were thinking. That one hurt, but I walked away thinking we gave our best shot and it just wasn't enough.

2022? No, I walked away after that with a feeling of complete and total disgust. I walked away from that thinking: "Nope. They're never, ever going to do it. I'm not going to let them get my hopes up--and then dash them--ever again."

So I went the other direction. No expectations. No interest. Harden my heart. They can win. They can lose. But if I'm no longer emotionally invested, I can't be hurt.

Totally get it, losses used to ruin my attitude for days, I have had to find a way to step back and not get too worked up over the losses.  My heart rate gets going in these games, I love to check my apple watch as I hit 145 towards the end of the games sometimes.  I try a take it in perspective and focus on the things that really matter to me.  I had a similar experience to you a few tournaments back and that was my turning point, thinking I can't let this shit get me down like that.  But I have season bball and football tickets and enjoy the games.  My son is a freshman down there, so it is great to go down and see him and go to games together.

[847badgerfan]

I'm not sure what would be worse. Having to play an improving Ohio State squad or having to play the Goophs for the second time this week.

Anyway, Go Badgers.

[bayareabadger]

Well, that's over and done with. An ignoble end to an ignoble season. 

[MaximumSam]

Hulu's BTN feed died during the game (it kept talking about Robbie Hummel's 1K race on a loop), but apparently the Bucks survived a big comeback in what sounds like a complete reversal of their earlier game.

[Brutus Buckeye]

My guess:
Wednesday:

• 13 tOSU > UW
• 11 UNL > MN

Thursday:

• 8 M > 9 RU
• 13 tOSU > 5 IA
• 7 IL > 10 PSU
• 6 UMD > 11 UNL

Friday:

• 8 M > 1 PU
• 4 MSU > 13 tOSU
• 7 IL > 2 NU
• 6 UMD > 3 IU

Saturday:

• 4 MSU > 8 M
• 6 UMD > 7 IL

Sunday:

• 4 MSU > 6 UMD

My thoughts...

• #12 Wisconsin d. #13 Ohio State
• #11 Nebraska d. #14 Minnesota

• #8 Michigan d. #9 Rutgers
• #12 Wisconsin d. #5 Iowa
• #10 Penn State d. #7 Illinois
• #6 Maryland d. #11 Nebraska

• #1 Purdue d. #8 Michigan
• #4 Michigan State d. #12 Wisconsin
• #10 Penn State d. #2 Northwestern
• #6 Maryland d. #3 Indiana

• #1 Purdue d. #4 Michigan State
• #6 Maryland d. #10 Penn State

• #1 Purdue d. #6 Maryland

Nope.