Maryland leading PSU severely diminishes MSU's chances at a double-bye.
There are six teams currently tied with MSU at 11-8. Two of them (IU, M) play each other.
In the final standings MSU will be behind the M/IU winner. They can only get a double-bye if at least three of the other four (UMD, NU, IL, IA) lose.
Thus, if Maryland beats Penn State then MSU needs the other three (NU, IL, IA) to lose