2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Current NET rankings:

• 5 Purdue 
• 18 Indiana 
• 21 Maryland 
• 32 Rutgers 
• 33 Michigan State 
• 34 Illinois 
• 41 Northwestern 
• 43 Iowa
• 55 Michigan
• 59 Penn State 
• 63 Ohio State 
• 72 Wisconsin 
• 92 Nebraska 
• 237 Minnesota 

Remember that Quad-1 games are:

• H 1-30
• N 1-50
• A 1-75

A lot can change in these last two games:

• UMD, RU, MSU, and IL are all close to the cut-line for a home game being Q1.
• NU, IA, M, and PSU are all close to the cut-line for a neutral site (read BTT) game being Q1.
• PSU, tOSU, and UW are all close to the cut-line for a road game being Q1.

[CatsbyAZ]

Current NET rankings:

• 63 Ohio State

Remember that Quad-1 games are:

• H 1-30
• N 1-50
• A 1-75

No offense to Buckeyes fans, but imagine going 4-14 in conference so far and somehow still counting as a Quad-1 win if beaten at home...

[MaximumSam]

No offense to Buckeyes fans, but imagine going 4-14 in conference so far and somehow still counting as a Quad-1 win if beaten at home...

Yeah don't have to imagine...

[medinabuckeye1]

No offense to Buckeyes fans, but imagine going 4-14 in conference so far and somehow still counting as a Quad-1 win if beaten at home...

I don't know all the ins and outs of how various computer rankings work but I'm fairly certain that this is for the same reason that the Buckeyes remain, by far, KenPom's unluckiest team. 

The computers still like the Buckeyes, at least relatively. Note that tOSU's NET is better than UW and UNL and about the same as PSU and M despite all four of those teams having considerably better records than Ohio State. 

[FearlessF]

if the Huskers would have held on to beat Purdue in Lincoln early this season they might be #90 instead of #92

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know all the ins and outs of how various computer rankings work but I'm fairly certain that this is for the same reason that the Buckeyes remain, by far, KenPom's unluckiest team.

The computers still like the Buckeyes, at least relatively. Note that tOSU's NET is better than UW and UNL and about the same as PSU and M despite all four of those teams having considerably better records than Ohio State.

I'm pretty sure this is all because Ohio State has a LOT of relatively close losses and only one close win, here are all of Ohio State's games so far this year to have been decided by single-digits:

• L by 9 at Dook
• W by 1 vs RU
• L by 5 in OT vs UNC, neutral site
• L by 2 vs PU
• L by 7 at UMD
• L by 3 vs MN
• L by 4 in OT at RU
• L by 3 at UNL
• L by 9 at IL
• L by 5 vs UW
• L by 8 at M
• L by 6 vs NU
• L by 4 vs PSU

One possession games in bold.  So the Buckeyes are 1-3 in one-possession games and 1-12 in single-digit games.  If they were had won almost half (gone 6-7) they'd be 17-12 and on the bubble just like M and PSU.  Instead they've been nearly shut out in close games so they are 12-17.  

[ELA]

My first resume only Bracket of the year (2/3 SOR, 1/3 KenPom), for now using SOR to determine regular season champ, and KenPom for tourney champ

2/28 Update (now using actual standings to determine regular season conference champ, and excluding sub .500 teams)

South vs. West; Midwest vs. East

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Morehead State/Texas A&M-CC
• #8 NORTHWESTERN vs. #9 USC
• #5 Miami vs. #12 Kent State
• #4 Xavier vs. #13 Liberty
• #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Dayton
• #6 Florida Atlantic vs. #11 IOWA
• #7 Texas A&M vs. #10 ILLINOIS
• #2 Baylor vs. #15 UNC Asheville

MIDWEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Norfolk State/Wagner
• #8 West Virginia vs. #9 Arkansas
• #5 Kentucky vs. #12 Sam Houston State
• #4 INDIANA vs. #13 Bradley
• #3 Marquette vs. #14 Furman
• #6 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #11 Nevada
• #7 Memphis vs. #10 NC State
• #2 Texas vs. #15 Vermont

EAST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 Grambling
• #8 Creighton vs. #9 Auburn
• #5 Virginia vs. #12 Charleston
• #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Marshall
• #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Iona
• #6 MARYLAND vs. #11 Utah State/North Carolina
• #7 Duke vs. #10 Mississippi State
• #2 Connecticut vs. #15 Colgate

WEST

• #1 UCLA vs. #16 Youngstown State
• #8 Missouri vs. #9 Iowa State
• #5 Saint Mary's vs. #12 Oral Roberts
• #4 San Diego State vs. #13 Yale
• #3 Arizona vs. #14 Montana State
• #6 TCU vs. #11 RUTGERS/Pittsburgh
• #7 Providence vs. #10 Boise State
• #2 PURDUE vs. #15 UC Irvine

NIT
STILLWATER

• #1 Oklahoma State vs. #8 Fairleigh Dickinson
• #4 Vanderbilt vs. #5 NEBRASKA
• #3 Oregon vs. #6 Toledo
• #2 Clemson vs. #7 Hofstra

ANN ARBOR

• #1 MICHIGAN vs. #8 Howard
• #4 Wake Forest vs. #5 Southern Miss
• #3 New Mexico vs. #6 Utah
• #2 Texas Tech vs. #7 Kennesaw State

TEMPE

• #1 Arizona State vs. #8 Eastern Washington
• #4 Seton Hall vs. #5 Cincinnati
• #3 Santa Clara vs. #6 UAB
• #2 PENN STATE vs. #7 Louisiana

DENTON

• #1 North Texas vs. #8 Alcorn State
• #4 VCU vs. #5 Drake
• #3 Utah Valley vs. #6 Villanova
• #2 WISCONSIN vs. #7 Washington State

BIG TEN TEAMS

• #2 Purdue - down from #1
• #4 Indiana - up from #5
• #6 Maryland - up from #7
• #6 Michigan State
• #8 Northwestern - down from #7
• #10 Illinois
• #11 Iowa - down from #10
• FF11 - Rutgers - down from #11
• NIT #1 Michigan - up from NIT #3
• NIT #2 Wisconsin - down from NIT #1
• NIT #2 Penn State - down from NIT #1
• NIT #5 Nebraska

[ELA]

I don't know all the ins and outs of how various computer rankings work but I'm fairly certain that this is for the same reason that the Buckeyes remain, by far, KenPom's unluckiest team.

The computers still like the Buckeyes, at least relatively. Note that tOSU's NET is better than UW and UNL and about the same as PSU and M despite all four of those teams having considerably better records than Ohio State.

Most of the predictive metrics give MSU roughly the same chances tonight on the road at Nebraska as they do at home against Ohio State this weekend

[bayareabadger]

Most of the predictive metrics give MSU roughly the same chances tonight on the road at Nebraska as they do at home against Ohio State this weekend

They do?

I see a 3- to 4-point gap in projected lines?

[FearlessF]

roughly the same

[ELA]

They do?

I see a 3- to 4-point gap in projected lines?

As far as win probability Im seeing 64 vs 69

[ELA]

100 points followed by 40 points.  Terrific

[ELA]

8 point lead.  God no

[ELA]

100 points followed by 40 points.  Terrific

12 points in the first 14 minutes.  68 in the remaining 26

I've said it before, you should make as many shots as you can if you want to win.  That first half strategy of not doing that didn't make sense