2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

My only thoughts would be to move the Minnesota-Rutgers game from Thursday 3/2, up to Tuesday 2/28, same day as MSU-Nebraska.  Then play MSU-Minnesota on Thursday, 3/2.  Or move Minnesota-Wisconsin up from Sunday 3/5, to Saturday 3/4, and then tack MSU-Minnesota onto the end on Monday, 3/6.

Sounds like this is what they are looking at doing

[medinabuckeye1]

The only upset over the weekend was Rutgers' win in Madison but given how bunched up the projection is, that changed a lot.  

New projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Maryland
• 12-8/20-11 Rutgers
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 12-8/21-10 Indiana
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois
• 11-8/19-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State (wins tie with M based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 9-11/17-13 Wisconsin
• 8-12/15-16 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-18/7-22 Minnesota

The tiebreaker for the five teams tied for 2nd through 6th at 12-8 starts with H2...H:

• 3-1 Maryland because they don't host Rutgers and don't travel to Champaign, Bloomington, nor Evanston.  
• 4-2 Rutgers because they don't travel to College Park, don't host the Illini, and won in Evanston
• 3-4 Northwestern beats IU on the basis of projected record against Purdue, theirs is 1-0, IU's is 1-1.  
• 3-4 Indiana
• 2-4 Illinois because they don't host the Terps, don't visit Piscataway, and lost at home to the Hoosiers.  

Based on those projections, the match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Wisconsin vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Indiana vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Illinois vs UW/MN, 9
• #7 Michigan State vs #10 Michigan, 630
• #8 Iowa vs #9 Penn State, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs IA/PSU, noon
• #2 Maryland vs MSU/M, 630
• #3 Rutgers vs IL/UW/MN, 9
• #4 Northwestern vs IU/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/IA/PSU vs NU/IU/UNL/tOSU, 1
• UMD/MSU/M vs RU/IL/UW/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/IA/PSU.NU/IU/UNL/tOSU vs UMD/MSU/M/RU/IL/UW/MN, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

I have no idea what this post has to do with College Basketball but it seems like a good post nonetheless.  

[medinabuckeye1]

League title chase update, I'll start from the bottom:

Mathematically eliminated:
The Nittany Lions, Badgers, Huskers, Buckeyes, and Gophers each have more than seven losses so they are mathematically eliminated.  

Need to win out:
The Terps, Illini, Hawkeyes, Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, and Spartans each have seven losses so they are mathematically in the race for a share but they are practically eliminated because they would need all of the following to get a share:

• They would need to win the rest of their games, and
• They would need Purdue to lose all the rest of their games, and
• They would need Northwestern to lose at least twice, and
• They would need Indiana to lose at least once
• In MSU's case, they would need the MN game to be rescheduled.  

Thus, as a practical matter, this is down to a three team race between Northwestern and the two teams from Indiana.  For those, I'll start at the top and go a little deeper here:

13-4 Purdue:
It is still the Boilermakers' race to lose.  If they win out they win it outright no matter what happens behind them.  FWIW, Purdue loses all ties.  If they win two out of three they win at least a share.  Their last three are:

• vs Indiana on Saturday, 2/25 at 730 on FOX.  
• at Wisconsin on Thursday, 3/2 at 9 on FS1.
• vs Illinois on Sunday, 3/5 at 12:30pm on FOX.  

11-5 Northwestern:
I can't remember a year when the Wildcats were this close to the league leader this late in the season.  If they win out and Purdue loses one of their last three, they'll win a share of the title and they win the tiebreaker.  Their last four are:

• at Illinois on Thursday, 2/23 at 9 on BTN.  
• at Maryland on Sunday, 2/26 at noon on BTN. (Note that this is AFTER Purdue's game against IU so it *COULD* be for the league lead if everything breaks right for the Wildcats).  
• vs Penn State on Wednesday, 3/1 at 9 on BTN.  
• at Rutgers on Sunday, 3/5 at 730 on BTN.  This (along with UW@MN at the same time) is literally the LAST B1G regular season game to tip off so if everything breaks right, the final game of the season could be for the title.  

10-6 Indiana:
The Hoosiers have the advantage of getting a crack at Purdue but the disadvantage of having to play a game in Mackey.  If the Hoosiers lose in Mackey, they are mathematically eliminated.  They can lose any other game and still be in it mathematically but that drops them into the seven-loss group where they need a series of miracles for it to happen so as a practical matter, they have to win out.  Indiana's last four are:

• at Michigan State on Tuesday, 2/21 at 9 on ESPN.  
• at Purdue on Saturday, 2/25 at 730 on FOX.  
• vs Iowa on Tuesday, 2/28 at 7
• vs Michigan on Sunday, 3/5 at 430

Indiana (@MSU) and Northwestern (@IL) are both on the road this week and if they both lose that will pretty much do it.  However, if one or both of them win then the Indiana/Purdue game this weekend in West Lafayette becomes VERY important.  

[medinabuckeye1]

NCAA Tournament view:
Locks:

• 24-4 Purdue.
• 20-7 Northwestern:  At this point their worst-case-scenario is 20-12 and I think that would be in.  

In barring absolute collapse:

• 19-8 Indiana:  Their worst case scenario is 19-13 which would *PROBABLY* be in but I don't know how the committee would view them skidding to the finish with five straight losses so I'll leave them here until they pick up one more win.  

Probably in but still have some work to do:

• 18-9 Maryland:  They should be in easily but I don't think it is a done deal yet.  
• 18-9 Illinois:  So long as they don't lose to Ohio State, I think the Illini are in.  None of their other games would be a terribly damaging loss.  
• 17-10 Iowa.  
• 17-10 Rutgers:  The win in Madison helped a lot.  
• 16-10 Michigan State:  They should be good.  

Work to do but doable:

• 16-11 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions won the first half of a two-game road swing against the worst two teams in the league and if they can win the second half (@tOSU, Thursday) that will help immensely.  After that they have two home games (RU, UMD) and a road game (NU) left.  Splitting the home games would keep them on the bubble, winning both would make them a near-lock.  Winning out would absolutely lock them in.  
• 15-12 Michigan:  Their league record is fine but they just don't have many losses to give.  

Could *POSSIBLY* still make it without winning the B1G's auto-bid but unlikely:

• 15-11 Wisconsin:  Their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be 22-12 and that would be in but they are rapidly running out of time and need to start winning fast.  
• 14-14 Nebraska:  Their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be 21-15 and I *THINK* that would be in for two reasons:  First, they'd be finishing on a great 7-1 run, and second, I think the committee would just include them rather than waiting for the B1GCG result.  

Need to win BTT:

• 11-16 Ohio State:  Their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be 19-17 and while that would be close I don't think it would be enough.  
• 7-18 Minnesota.  

[ELA]

My first resume only Bracket of the year (2/3 SOR, 1/3 KenPom), for now using SOR to determine regular season champ, and KenPom for tourney champ

2/21 Update (now using actual standings to determine regular season conference champ, and excluding sub .500 teams)

South vs. East and Midwest vs. West

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Texas A&M-CC/SIU Edwardsville
• #8 Duke vs. #9 Kentucky
• #5 Miami vs. #12 Sam Houston State
• #4 Kansas State vs. #13 Liberty
• #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Furman
• #6 Providence vs. #11 RUTGERS
• #7 MARYLAND vs. #10 West Virginia
• #2 Baylor vs. #15 Youngstown State

MIDWEST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 Longwood/Fairleigh Dickinson
• #8 Auburn vs. #9 Boise State
• #5 INDIANA vs. #12 Kent State
• #4 Xavier vs. #13 Drake
• #3 Marquette vs. #14 Dayton
• #6 TCU vs. #11 Mississippi State
• #7 NORTHWESTERN vs. #10 Missouri
• #2 Arizona vs. #15 Colgate

WEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Grambling
• #8 Arkansas vs. #9 NC State
• #5 Saint Mary's vs. #12 Oral Roberts
• #4 San Diego State vs. #13 Marshall
• #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 UC Irvine
• #6 Creighton vs. #11 Oklahoma State/North Texas
• #7 Memphis vs. #10 IOWA
• #2 UCLA vs. #15 Montana State

EAST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Norfolk State
• #8 Texas A&M vs. #9 Nevada
• #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Charleston
• #4 Virginia vs. #13 Yale
• #3 Connecticut vs. #14 Iona
• #6 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #11 USC/Utah State
• #7 Florida Atlantic vs. #10 ILLINOIS
• #2 Texas vs. #15 Vermont

NIT
CHAPEL HILL

• #1 North Carolina vs. #8 Howard
• #4 Cincinnati vs. #5 NEBRASKA
• #3 Utah Valley vs. #6 Bradley
• #2 Texas Tech vs. #7 Kennesaw State

PITTSBURGH

• #1 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Morehead State
• #4 Southern Miss vs. #5 Utah
• #3 MICHIGAN vs. #6 Tulane
• #2 Seton Hall vs. #7 Hofstra

MADISON

• #1 WISCONSIN vs. #8 Alcorn State
• #4 Wake Forest vs. #5 Vanderbilt
• #3 Santa Clara vs. #6 Clemson
• #2 Arizona State vs. #7 Eastern Washington

STATE COLLEGE

• #1 PENN STATE vs. #8 Samford
• #4 Florida vs. #5 VCU
• #3 Oregon vs. #6 Virginia Tech
• #2 New Mexico vs. #7 UNC Asheville

BIG TEN TEAMS

• #1 Purdue
• #5 Indiana
• #6 Michigan State
• #7 Maryland
• #7 Northwestern - up from #8
• #10 Illinois - down from #6
• #10 Iowa
• #11 Rutgers - down from #9
• NIT #1 Wisconsin
• NIT #1 Penn State - up from NIT #3
• NIT #3 Michigan
• NIT #5 Nebraska - up from #11 team out

[bayareabadger]

As this goes on, I’m so effing mad at this team. 

[ELA]

Well, Nate Oats might be done coaching anywhere


https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1628110290087997442?t=EbZeI6q389bwArpgOapJvQ&s=19


https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/1628121900474896389?t=nzxSOWY5W6xbPMo6-CsxAg&s=19


https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1628127596587192347?t=xl1abEgDxR5q6bojqeuCvA&s=19

[847badgerfan]

??

[847badgerfan]

I see know.

Nope, don't want that guy.

[bayareabadger]

I see know.

Nope, don't want that guy.

It’s interesting. I used to roll my eyes at his ride for one reason, but that reason was more old school sketchy than this mess.

[medinabuckeye1]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/big10basketball/big10winmagicnumbers.html

I don't know anything about this site so I don't vouch for them but I thought this was interesting. 

According to them (and I think this is right, I did a few spot checks):

• 12 teams (all but tOSU and MN) are still in the running for the double-bye.
• 12 teams (all but PU and NU) could still end up playing on Wednesday. 

That means that 10 teams (all but PU, NU, MN, tOSU) could end up anywhere from top-4 and a double-bye to bottom-4 and playing on Wednesday. 

[ELA]

Think MSU is probably in now as long as they don't lose out.  Normally I hate being in the 7,8,9,10 group, but this year I don't even feel that way. The numbers I use project MSU to be a 6 seed, but most of the bracketologists have us at a 7.  The difference there is smaller than it normally is. Although granted, I would still rather be on that six line

[boilerbanger]

Think MSU is probably in now as long as they don't lose out.  Normally I hate being in the 7,8,9,10 group, but this year I don't even feel that way. The numbers I use project MSU to be a 6 seed, but most of the bracketologists have us at a 7.  The difference there is smaller than it normally is. Although granted, I would still rather be on that six line

As a Boiler fan, congrats on the win last night, looked ugly at the start but they got rolling with the 3s.  Gets us 1 step closer to locking up the BIG regular season title, now rooting for Illinois on Thursday.