2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

League Title Chase update:

Back on February 1 the Boilermakers throttled Penn State to move to 11-1 with a humongous lead in the standings and it looked like they might clinch by mid-February.  If they had continued winning, they'd be 15-1 right now and they would have already clinched an outright league title.  Instead, they have lost two straight and three of four so we have a bona-fide race on our hands.  

That said, I don't think the sky is falling in West Lafayette.  Although they have lost three of four, all three were on the road and against pretty good teams.  Purdue finishes with three at home and only one on the road:

• vs tOSU Sunday at 1, CBS
• vs IU next Saturday, 2/25 at 7:30
• at Wisconsin 3/2 at 9
• vs Illinois 3/5 at 12:30 

If Purdue wins out, they win the league outright no matter what happens behind them.  If they finish 3-1 they'll win at least a share and they'll win outright unless the Wildcats win out.  If they finish 2-2 that opens the door for the five six-loss teams.  In theory a 1-3 finish by the Boilermakers would open the door for the two seven-loss teams and an 0-4 finish would open the door for 7-8 Wisconsin but, as a practical matter, I do not think that the teams with seven and eight losses have any chance for three reasons:

• I STRONGLY doubt that Purdue is actually going to finish 1-3 let alone 0-4, and
• Even if the Boilermakers did collapse, the teams with seven and eight losses would also need a bunch of other teams in front of them to lose games that they aren't all that likely to lose, and 
• Even if all of that happened, does anyone here really think that Rutgers (has lost three straight), Michigan (has lost two straight), or Wisconsin (has lost five of last eight) are going to win out?  I don't.  

What about the teams chasing the Boilermakers:
10-5 Northwestern, remaining games:

• vs IA Sunday at 630
• at IL 2/23 at 9
• at UMD 2/26 at noon
• vs PSU 3/1 at 9
• at RU 3/5 at 730

The Wildcats are on an absolute tear.  They've won four straight including road games against tOSU and UW and home games against IU and PU.  That said, they can't let up because they are still a game back in the loss column.  The tier system projects a 12-8 finish (win home games, lose road games).  I think the best realistic chance would be 14-6 by winning the home games, beating a struggling RU on the road, and splitting the IL and UMD road games.  

The six-loss teams:  Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, and Iowa each have six losses.  I'll look deeper at any of them that still have only six losses a week from now.  

[medinabuckeye1]

All 14 teams play this weekend:

• Illinois at Indiana Saturday at noon on ESPN
• Rutgers at Wisconsin Saturday at noon on BTN
• Michigan State at Michigan Saturday at 8 on FOX
• Penn State at Minnesota Saturday at 9 on BTN
• Ohio State at Purdue Sunday at 1 on CBS
• Maryland at Nebraska Sunday at 5 on FS1
• Iowa at Northwestern Sunday at 630 on BTN

Illinois and Indiana have six losses each so their game is big for both in terms of seeding and their already slim chances to catch Purdue.  

Rutgers 8-7 has been struggling lately and Wisconsin 7-8 has been struggling longer.  If it weren't for Rutgers' recent struggles I'd see this as a prime opportunity for them to pick up a road win.  This game, as I see it, is big for the bubble.  If Rutgers loses they fall onto the bubble and Wisconsin props up their narrowing chances.  If Wisconsin loses their path gets REALLY narrow and Rutgers stays slightly above bubble talk.  

The Michigan State vs Michigan game is rightfully overshadowed by what happened at MSU recently.  From the sports perspective, I see this as a prime opportunity for the Spartans to pick up a road win but who knows where their heads are.  

Penn State needs this game.  Road wins are hard to come by but Penn State's next two games are the two easiest road games in this league.  If they can win this weekend in Minneapolis and next week in Columbus that will substantially help their bubble situation.  

Upthread @ELA suggested that Ohio State still had a path to the Tournament.  Mathematically they do but if they are going to make it without winning five games in Chicago to claim the auto-bid, they need to start winning pronto.  Purdue can move a step closer to clinching then take next week off to rest.  

Maryland needs this game.  Road wins are had to come by and it doesn't get much easier than this one.  

Iowa needs a win to stay in the hunt and help their NCAA seed, Northwestern needs a win to stay in the hunt for the league title.  How long has it been since NU won a league title in BB?  

[bayareabadger]

At roughly 3/4 of the way through the season, here is the updated projection:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Maryland
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 12-8/21-10 Indiana
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois
• 11-8/19-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa (wins tie with RU based on H2H, won in Piscataway)
• 11-9/19-12 Rutgers
• 10-10/18-12 Wisconsin
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State
• 8-12/15-16 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-18/7-22 Minnesota

Tiebreaker for the four teams tied for 2nd through 5th at 12-8, the tie is broken based on H2H2H2H:

• 3-0 Maryland, does not visit Bloomington, Urbana-Champaign, nor Evanston
• 3-2 Northwestern, does not host UMD, beat IU in Bloomington
• 2-3 Indiana, does not host UMD, beat IL in Champaign, lost at home to NU
• 1-4 Illinois, does not host UMD, lost at home to IU

Tiebreaker for the three teams tied for 9th through 11th at 10-10, the tie is broken based on H2H2H:

• 3-1 Wisconsin, won in State College
• 2-2 Michigan
• 1-3 Penn State, lost at home to UW

Thus, the projected match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois are:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Illinois vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Michigan State vs PSU/MN, 9
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Wisconsin, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs RU/UW, noon
• #2 Maryland vs IA/M, 630
• #3 Northwestern vs MSU/PSU/MN, 9
• #4 Indiana vs IL/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/RU/UW vs IU/IL/UNL/tOSU, 1
• UMD/IA/M vs NU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/RU/UW/IU/IL/UNL/tOSU vs UMD/IA/M/NU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Note above that for now I am assuming that the Minnesota/Michigan State game will NOT be rescheduled.  Thus, those two teams only have 19 projected games rather than 20 like the other 12 teams.  If that changes, let me know. 

I honestly can’t tell if the tiersdictate Ohio State finishes on that level of losing streak, or if Medina has simply banished Ohio State to the Minnesota tier.

[medinabuckeye1]

I honestly can’t tell if the tiersdictate Ohio State finishes on that level of losing streak, or if Medina has simply banished Ohio State to the Minnesota tier.

A couple of weeks ago I proposed moving the Buckeyes into the previously empty tier between Nebraska and Minnesota. To be perfectly honest, I was hoping that I was just overreacting out of frustration and that some of the neutral fans here would talk me back. Instead, everyone who spoke up concurred so the Buckeyes dropped into tier-5:

• Purdue
• IU, MSU, RU
• IL, NU, UMD, IA, M, PSU, UW
• UNL
• tOSU
• MN

We haven't talked about updating the tiers lately but we really haven't needed to. With the exceptions of PU (-2) and tOSU (+2) all teams are within +/-1. Those exceptions:

Purdue is at -2 with one positive upset (win at MSU) and three negative upsets (home loss to RU, road losses to NU and UMD).

Ohio State is at +2 with three positive upsets (road win at NU, home wins over RU and IA) and one negative upset (home loss to MN).

In both cases, it is a common statistical issue. Teams in the top tier tend to have more negative upsets while teams in the bottom tier tend to have more positive upsets. This is simply a product of opportunity. 

Purdue had only two projected losses so only two chances to get a positive upset. They got one of the two. For the season they will have 18 opportunities to be upset and it has happened three times.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Ohio State only has one projected win and they lost that game. For the season they'll have 19 chances to upset someone and they made good on three of them.

[medinabuckeye1]

I plan to drop Ohio State into the blank tier between Nebraska and Minnesota.

Their two best games are the win over Rutgers and the blowout win in Evanston but those were on December 8 and January 1. Since then they are 1-8 including a loss to Nebraska and a home loss to Minnesota. At this point they are horrible.

Thoughts?

I posted this on February 2. Only @boilerbanger and @847badgerfan replied, but they both agreed.

If I seem overly defensive about your comment, it is because while I manage the tier thing and do all the tiebreaker calculations and whatnot, I REALLY don't want it to be simply "Medina's projections", I look for concensus because I want it to be a board thing, not just me.

[ELA]

I think that's fair

[betarhoalphadelta]

I posted this on February 2. Only @boilerbanger and @847badgerfan replied, but they both agreed.

If I seem overly defensive about your comment, it is because while I manage the tier thing and do all the tiebreaker calculations and whatnot, I REALLY don't want it to be simply "Medina's projections", I look for concensus because I want it to be a board thing, not just me.

Very simple. All you need to do is occasionally throw in a proposed tier move that makes no sense and will rile EVERYONE up. 

People are quiet about their opinion when they agree with you. But say something they disagree with, and you'll get engagement!

[ELA]

The more I think about it, the more I think playing this weekend is a bad idea.  Baseball might be a different case, because I believe they were already out in Arizona when this happened

The fact that out of respect to the victims, the MSU baseball and softball Twitter accounts are not actually updating. The scores this weekend, makes me even more sure they probably shouldn't be playing. If they are concerned that even updating scores is going to get blow back based on the vibes on campus

[Brutus Buckeye]

Very simple. All you need to do is occasionally throw in a proposed tier move that makes no sense and will rile EVERYONE up.

People are quiet about their opinion when they agree with you. But say something they disagree with, and you'll get engagement!

Moving Purdue down to OSU's tier ought to do the trick. 

[ELA]

The reason Zach Edey is so obviously NPOY is that if you took him off Purdue, I would pick them to lose to OSU... comfortably.

The year Denzel Valentine split NPOY with Buddy Hield, MSU went 1-3 during his injury, and Edey feels WAY more dominant 

[ELA]

The fact that out of respect to the victims, the MSU baseball and softball Twitter accounts are not actually updating. The scores this weekend, makes me even more sure they probably shouldn't be playing. If they are concerned that even updating scores is going to get blow back based on the vibes on campus

And then softball won 7-0, baseball crushed UM 15-8, and hockey is up AT Wisconsin 3-0, so maybe it's all good

[bayareabadger]

I posted this on February 2. Only @boilerbanger and @847badgerfan replied, but they both agreed.

If I seem overly defensive about your comment, it is because while I manage the tier thing and do all the tiebreaker calculations and whatnot, I REALLY don't want it to be simply "Medina's projections", I look for concensus because I want it to be a board thing, not just me.

No worries and didn't mean to offense. That 3-17 really popped, and I didn't realize we'd wedged Nebraska into its won tier. As such, when I saw three home losses, I was sure I was missing something. Which I was. 

[bayareabadger]

Rutgers 8-7 has been struggling lately and Wisconsin 7-8 has been struggling longer.  If it weren't for Rutgers' recent struggles I'd see this as a prime opportunity for them to pick up a road win.  This game, as I see it, is big for the bubble.  If Rutgers loses they fall onto the bubble and Wisconsin props up their narrowing chances.  If Wisconsin loses their path gets REALLY narrow and Rutgers stays slightly above bubble talk. 

This game fascinates me because, as you said, it either opens up or closes off a lot for UW. 

A win, and UW needs to go 1-2 in the next three and hold off the Gophers at home to (likely) lock in a spot. A loss, and you need all that to just head to the BTT as a bubble team. 

My gut is that unless the NET is really held against them (not supposed to happen, but sometimes does), a 18-13 finish with that schedule is good enough. And if they go to Chicago at 16-14, they'll have to reach Saturday just to have a bubble chance. But 17-13 going to Chicago is interesting. I don't think a 17-14 finish would do it, though it's not out of the realm if the bubble is super soft. 18-14 is in the mix, and I feel like 19-14 is very probably in. 

The downside is opponent. Unless UW can drop below Neb, you're likely talking either Wed vs. Minnesota (little upside beyond a win, season-ending downside) and then a second-round game against PSU (Awful), or just PSU. Either way, I won't feel good about this. 

I spend all this time thinking about this and it means a loss tomorrow is pretty likely. Both teams are good at D and have what look like limited benches. If UW could just deliver a win, I'd be appreciative. 

[847badgerfan]

This game fascinates me because, as you said, it either opens up or closes off a lot for UW.

A win, and UW needs to go 1-2 in the next three and hold off the Gophers at home to (likely) lock in a spot. A loss, and you need all that to just head to the BTT as a bubble team.

My gut is that unless the NET is really held against them (not supposed to happen, but sometimes does), a 18-13 finish with that schedule is good enough. And if they go to Chicago at 16-14, they'll have to reach Saturday just to have a bubble chance. But 17-13 going to Chicago is interesting. I don't think a 17-14 finish would do it, though it's not out of the realm if the bubble is super soft. 18-14 is in the mix, and I feel like 19-14 is very probably in.

The downside is opponent. Unless UW can drop below Neb, you're likely talking either Wed vs. Minnesota (little upside beyond a win, season-ending downside) and then a second-round game against PSU (Awful), or just PSU. Either way, I won't feel good about this.

I spend all this time thinking about this and it means a loss tomorrow is pretty likely. Both teams are good at D and have what look like limited benches. If UW could just deliver a win, I'd be appreciative.

Teh fat lady is singing. It's Ovah!!