2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know what to think about Ohio State's trip to Iowa City tonight. 

The Buckeyes have lost 11 of 12 and are a dumpster fire right now but the exception was against Iowa in Columbus a little less than a month ago. The Buckeyes ran the Hawkeyes right out of the arena.

That game against Iowa is the division between what was a rough stretch or rebuilding year and what has become a complete cluster-f. 

The Buckeyes lost five straight prior to beating Iowa but, of the five, only the home loss to Minnesota was truly "bad". The others were close road losses to decent teams (UMD, RU, UNL) and a VERY close home loss to the #1 team in the nation. 

Since the Iowa win, Ohio State has been a complete train wreck. They have home losses, blowout losses, and even a blowout loss at home in which they only barely got out of the single digits before halftime. 

I'm ready to start the 23-24 BB thread.

[ELA]

MSU resuming athletic activities this weekend, with men's basketball going to UM, hockey going to Wisconsin, and baseball starting their season out in Arizona

[ELA]

I'm ready to start the 23-24 BB thread.

And yet OSU still "technically" has a path, and we are only like 2 weeks from the end of the regular season.

Imagine if every college football fan treated the season the same when they picked up their 2nd loss of the season.

OSU still has a more plausible path to a national title than half the Big Ten has in football on October 1

[Brutus Buckeye]

The Espn predictor has been picking OSU to win all these games the whole time. Today, however, it predicts an OSU loss. So get the brooms out! 

[MaximumSam]

Maryland looking like a real team

[ELA]

Going to be a very weird vibe for a rivalry game


https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1626311234814373888?t=Fab7rcnosahEAzSnSZ7j4g&s=19

[ELA]

Seemed like just a mild bummer of a missed upset opportunity at the time.  But if MSU could have held on at home against Purdue, they'd be in a tie for first with Purdue and Northwestern 

[medinabuckeye1]

And yet OSU still "technically" has a path, and we are only like 2 weeks from the end of the regular season.

Imagine if every college football fan treated the season the same when they picked up their 2nd loss of the season.

OSU still has a more plausible path to a national title than half the Big Ten has in football on October 1

Plausible?
Have you watched Ohio State lately. Right now they are down 20+ in Iowa City and in their last game they barely cracked double digits in the first half while being blown out by your Spartans. They are about to be 1-12 since New Years Day.

Mathematically they have a chance. That chance isn't remotely plausible. 

This isn't simply a matter of me thinking it's over because tOSU is out of the NC hunt, there are still things to watch_hope/cheer for below that. This team is so awful that I'm just looking for basic competence at this point and I'm not seeing it.

[medinabuckeye1]

At roughly 3/4 of the way through the season, here is the updated projection:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Maryland
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 12-8/21-10 Indiana
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois
• 11-8/19-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa (wins tie with RU based on H2H, won in Piscataway)
• 11-9/19-12 Rutgers
• 10-10/18-12 Wisconsin
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State
• 8-12/15-16 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-18/7-22 Minnesota

Tiebreaker for the four teams tied for 2nd through 5th at 12-8, the tie is broken based on H2H2H2H:

• 3-0 Maryland, does not visit Bloomington, Urbana-Champaign, nor Evanston
• 3-2 Northwestern, does not host UMD, beat IU in Bloomington
• 2-3 Indiana, does not host UMD, beat IL in Champaign, lost at home to NU
• 1-4 Illinois, does not host UMD, lost at home to IU

Tiebreaker for the three teams tied for 9th through 11th at 10-10, the tie is broken based on H2H2H:

• 3-1 Wisconsin, won in State College
• 2-2 Michigan
• 1-3 Penn State, lost at home to UW

Thus, the projected match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois are:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Illinois vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Michigan State vs PSU/MN, 9
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Wisconsin, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs RU/UW, noon
• #2 Maryland vs IA/M, 630
• #3 Northwestern vs MSU/PSU/MN, 9
• #4 Indiana vs IL/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/RU/UW vs IU/IL/UNL/tOSU, 1
• UMD/IA/M vs NU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/RU/UW/IU/IL/UNL/tOSU vs UMD/IA/M/NU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Note above that for now I am assuming that the Minnesota/Michigan State game will NOT be rescheduled.  Thus, those two teams only have 19 projected games rather than 20 like the other 12 teams.  If that changes, let me know.  

[ELA]

Out of curiosity, now that it would be a five-way tie, how does MSU do if they make up and beat Minnesota?

[medinabuckeye1]

Out of curiosity, now that it would be a five-way tie, how does MSU do if they make up and beat Minnesota?

These could probably be LSAT problems but here goes:

If we had a five-way tie for 2nd through 6th at 12-8 between IU, IL, NU, UMD, AND MSU the rules stipulate that we start with H2H2H2H2H:
I start with the thinking that if all games were played (26 game double-round-robin) all of these teams would win the home games and lose the road games amongst each other so they would each go 4-4.  Then I remove games not actually played.  Fortunately, I have a handy-dandy little table where I track those:

So:

• 3-4 IU:  They lose the projected home win over UMD.  
• 3-2 MSU:  They lose the projected home win over IL but lose projected losses at College Park and Evanston.  
• 3-3 IL:  They lose the projected home win over UMD and the projected loss in East Lansing.  
• 2-4 NU:  They lose the projected home wins over UMD and MSU.  
• 3-1 UMD:  They lose the projected home win over MSU and the projected losses in Champaign, Bloomington, and Evanston.  

Then we have to account for upsets involving these five teams, they are:

• NU over MSU in East Lansing on 12/4
• NU over IU in Bloomington on 1/8
• IU over IL in Champaign on 1/19

Indiana's two upsets cancel each other out.  Northwestern picks up two wins and eliminates two losses.  MSU and IL each lose a win and add a loss, thus:

• 3-1 Maryland
• 4-2 Northwestern
• 3-4 Indiana
• 2-3 MSU
• 2-4 Illinois

Thus, the seeds would be:

• #2 Maryland - was #2
• #3 Northwestern - was #3
• #4 Indiana - was #4
• #5 Michigan State - was #6
• #6 Illinois - was #5

So all-in-all, the only change is to flip-flop MSU and IL for the #5 and #6 seeds.  

FWIW, I think MSU would actually be better off with the #6:

• They play Thursday either way.  As #5 they'd get the 12/13 winner (probably UNL) and as #6 they'd get the #11/14 winner (probably PSU).  I see that as roughly a wash.  
• On Friday, as the #6 seed they'd get #3 NU.  As the #5 seed they'd get #4 IU.  I'd prefer to play NU if it were me.  
• On Saturday as the #5 seed they'd probably get PU.  As the #6 they avoid PU until the CG and probably get UMD.  

[ELA]

The more I think about it, the more I think playing this weekend is a bad idea.  Baseball might be a different case, because I believe they were already out in Arizona when this happened

[847badgerfan]

A sense of normalcy might be good for the kids, but it won't really be normal with all of the stuff UM is doing.

[ELA]

A sense of normalcy might be good for the kids, but it won't really be normal with all of the stuff UM is doing.

Yeah, if this was just a random midweek game against Iowa or something, ok.  A rivalry game, with heightened emotions, eh....