2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

Buckeyes finally fell out of Quad 1, killing a resume builder for like everyone

[medinabuckeye1]

Buckeyes finally fell out of Quad 1, killing a resume builder for like everyone

Yeah, new NET rankings:

• 4 Purdue
• 17 Indiana
• 21 Rutgers
• 22 Illinois
• 28 Maryland
• 32 Michigan State
• 39 Iowa
• 44 Northwestern
• 54 Ohio State
• 67 Penn State
• 68 Michigan
• 80 Wisconsin
• 100 Nebraska
• 241 Minnesota

For those unaware, the point @MaximumSam was making was that Ohio State's drop out of the top-50 matters because here is the arrangement of quads:

• H 1-30, N 1-50, A 1-75
• H 31-75, N 51-100, A 76-135
• H 76-160, N 101-200, A 135-240
• H 161-353, N 201-353, A 241-353

Thus, all B1G road games are Quad-1 except:

• UW and UNL are Quad-2
• Minnesota is Quad -4 (barely).

B1G home games:

• Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland
• Michigan State, Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan
• Wisconsin, Nebraska
• Minnesota

Thus, with Ohio State dropping out of the top-50 they will not be a Quad-1 win for whoever beats them in Chicago.

[medinabuckeye1]

League title race update:
Obviously it is still Purdue's race to lose. They are two up in the loss column with five to go so:

• If Purdue goes 4-1 or better they win outright. 
• If Purdue goes 3-2 they are guaranteed at least a share.
• If Purdue goes 2-3 or worse then the door is open.

Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Minnesota each have nine or more losses so they are mathematically eliminated. 

Wisconsin has eight losses. They are mathematically in the race but only if they win out and Purdue loses out so, as a practical matter, they are out.

The six-loss teams:
UMD, MSU, IA, RU, and M each have six losses. They are mathematically in the race but only Purdue goes 2-3 or worse down the stretch. 


I'm going to ignore the teams with six or more losses for now because they are only in the race if Purdue basically collapses down the stretch and they win out (or close to it). That brings us to:

The five-loss teams:
Northwestern, Indiana, and Illinois each have five losses so each could tie Purdue by winning out if Purdue finishes 3-2. That said, only one of them can actually do that because they all play each other:

• Northwestern: hosts IU on Wednesday, travels to Urbana-Champaign on 2/23.
• Indiana: visits Evanston on Wednesday, hosts Illinois on Saturday. 
• Illinois: visits Bloomington on Saturday, hosts Northwestern on 2/23.

In addition to their games against each other, Indiana (2/25) and Illinois (3/5) both visit Mackey. As a practical matter, the chances of any of them winning out are minimal. 

[grillrat]

Road games are hard part 9 million:

Purdue is the best team in our league and by a large margin and yet here are their road games:

• Lost in Bloomington.
• Lost in Evanston.
• Needed OT in Lincoln.
• Won by a bucket in Columbus only because tOSU committed a bone-head devastating turnover to get the Boilermakers back in the game.
• Won by a single point in East Lansing.
• Won by five in Ann Arbor.
• Blew out Minnesota.

That is . . . not terribly impressive.

At this point, in this particular season nationwide, any road win is a big road win.
Arizona just lost on the road on Saturday to a 11-14 Stanford team.
Alabama got absolutely blasted a couple of weeks ago to a 12-13 Oklahoma team
KSU lost on the road to a blah 13-12 Texas Tech team.
On Friday, a good Xavier team couldn't overcome one of the worst Butler teams in 15 years.

I wont knock any road win at all.  That's going to be the difference between a 1 / 2 seed and a 7 / 8 seed this year.

[medinabuckeye1]

At this point, in this particular season nationwide, any road win is a big road win.
Arizona just lost on the road on Saturday to a 11-14 Stanford team.
Alabama got absolutely blasted a couple of weeks ago to a 12-13 Oklahoma team
KSU lost on the road to a blah 13-12 Texas Tech team.
On Friday, a good Xavier team couldn't overcome one of the worst Butler teams in 15 years.

I wont knock any road win at all.  That's going to be the difference between a 1 / 2 seed and a 7 / 8 seed this year.

Agreed.

Looking at your Boilermakers, I listed four close road wins (UNL, MSU, M, tOSU). If they had gone 2-2 instead of 4-0 in those, they'd be tied in the loss column with NU, IL, and IU and only one game ahead of 9th place.

[bayareabadger]

Not gonna lie, I am still so effing mad about that Nebraska game.

There was a sort of weird discussion on another message board I frequent. Basically, despite the struggles, there was some rallying around the sophomore point guard who has a case as the team’s best player (all the best players are a degree of flawed). Basically arguing that this was a learning year, and he’s going to be a stud for the next two.

And it’s weird because one of the main things preventing us from being an NCAA tournament team is that he is not a stud. And if he is very good they’re much closer to solid. So it’s difficult to simultaneously preach a teardown off-season and be highly protective of his potential. Because if he’s as good as they hope, the offseason nerds are much less. And if the needs are great, one big part is getting him a player who can act as training wheels  for his bucket-getting deficiencies.

[847badgerfan]

Not gonna lie, I am still so effing mad about that Nebraska game.

There was a sort of weird discussion on another message board I frequent. Basically, despite the struggles, there was some rallying around the sophomore point guard who has a case as the team’s best player (all the best players are a degree of flawed). Basically arguing that this was a learning year, and he’s going to be a stud for the next two.

And it’s weird because one of the main things preventing us from being an NCAA tournament team is that he is not a stud. And if he is very good they’re much closer to solid. So it’s difficult to simultaneously preach a teardown off-season and be highly protective of his potential. Because if he’s as good as they hope, the offseason nerds are much less. And if the needs are great, one big part is getting him a player who can act as training wheels  for his bucket-getting deficiencies.

Same.

[ELA]

My first resume only Bracket of the year (2/3 SOR, 1/3 KenPom), for now using SOR to determine regular season champ, and KenPom for tourney champ

2/13 Update (now using actual standings to determine regular season conference champ, and excluding sub .500 teams)

South vs. West and Midwest vs. East

NCAA
SOUTH

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Grambling/SIU Edwardsville
• #8 Nevada vs. #9 RUTGERS
• #5 Miami vs. #12 Charleston
• #4 Kansas State vs. #13 Liberty
• #3 Arizona vs. #14 Furman
• #6 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #11 Boise State
• #7 Missouri vs. #10 North Carolina
• #2 Texas vs. #15 Vermont

MIDWEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Radford/Wagner
• #8 West Virginia vs. #9 Memphis
• #5 INDIANA vs. #12 USC/Kentucky
• #4 Xavier vs. #13 Drake
• #3 Marquette vs. #14 Dayton
• #6 ILLINOIS vs. #11 Mississippi State
• #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 Duke
• #2 Baylor vs. #15 Youngstown State

EAST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Norfolk State
• #8 NC State vs. #9 Providence
• #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Kent State
• #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Marshall
• #3 Connecticut vs. #14 Iona
• #6 TCU vs. #11 Oral Roberts
• #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 IOWA
• #2 Virginia vs. #15 Colgate

WEST

• #1 UCLA vs. #16 Northwestern State
• #8 NORTHWESTERN vs. #9 Auburn
• #5 Creighton vs. #12 Sam Houston State
• #4 San Diego State vs. #13 Yale
• #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 UC Irvine
• #6 Florida Atlantic vs. #11 Texas A&M/Pittsburgh
• #7 MARYLAND vs. #10 Arkansas
• #2 Kansas vs. #15 Montana State

NIT
LOGAN

• #1 Utah State vs. #8 Fairleigh Dickinson
• #4 Virginia Tech vs. #5 Utah Valley
• #3 MICHIGAN vs. #6 Eastern Washington
• #2 Southern Miss vs. #7 UNC Asheville

MADISON

• #1 WISCONSIN vs. #8 Texas A&M-CC
• #4 Wake Forest vs. #5 Cincinnati
• #3 Oklahoma vs. #6 Hofstra
• #2 Seton Hall vs. #7 Milwaukee

DENTON

• #1 North Texas vs. #8 Morehead State
• #4 Clemson vs. #5 Santa Clara
• #3 PENN STATE vs. #6 UC Santa Barbara
• #2 Arizona State vs. #7 Rider

ALBUQUERQUE

• #1 New Mexico vs. #8 Howard
• #4 Florida vs. #5 VCU
• #3 Clemson vs. #6 Central Florida
• #2 Oregon vs. #7 Alcorn State

• Nebraska - #11 team out of NIT
• Ohio State - n/a
• Minnesota - n/a

[medinabuckeye1]

Over the weekend there were two upsets:

• Indiana's win in Ann Arbor, and
• Northwestern's win over Purdue.  

That doesn't change the projected standings all that much but it changes the projected BTT seeds a LOT because so many teams are bunched so close together.  Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 17-3/28-3 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 12-8/20-11 Rutgers
• 12-8/21-10 Indiana
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
• 11-9/20-11 Maryland
• 10-10/18-12 Wisconsin
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreaker for the 5-way tie at 12-8 for 2nd through 6th:  The tie is first broke based on H2H2H2H2H:

• 4-3 Northwestern (beats RU based on record against the three 10-10 teams).  
• 4-3 Rutgers
• 4-4 Indiana (beats IL based on record against PU)
• 3-3 Illinois
• 2-4 Michigan State

Tiebreaker for the 3-way tie at 10-10 for 9th through 11th:  The tie is broken based on H2H2H:

• 3-1 Wisconsin:  Won in State College
• 2-2 Michigan
• 1-3 Penn State:  Lost at home to UW

Thus the projected match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois are:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Illinois vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Michigan State vs PSU/MN, 9
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Wisconsin, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs UMD/UW, noon
• #2 Northwestern vs IA/M, 630
• #3 Rutgers vs MSU/PSU/MN, 9
• #4 Indiana vs IL/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/UMD/UW vs IU/IL/UNL/tOSU, 1
• NU/IA/M vs RU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/UMD/UW/IU/IL/UNL/tOSU vs NU/IA/M/RU/MSU/PSU/MN, 330

Note on fluidity:
#2 through #11 are only separated by two games so this is highly fluid at least for those teams.  Projected #2 seed Northwestern is only two games ahead of playing on Wednesday while projected #11 seed Penn State is only two games below getting not only Wednesday but also Thursday off.  

[FearlessF]

Over the weekend there were two upsets:

• Indiana's win in Ann Arbor, and
• Northwestern's win over Purdue. 

Huskers win over Badgers felt like an upset

[medinabuckeye1]

Huskers win over Badgers felt like an upset

It did but Badgers are tier-3 while Huskers are tier-4 so that result matched the projection. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated KenPom:

• 5 Purdue
• 16 Rutgers
• 19 Indiana
• 21 Illinois
• 26 Maryland
• 30 Michigan State
• 34 Iowa
• 47 Northwestern
• 51 Ohio State
• 53 Michigan
• 55 Penn State
• 70 Wisconsin
• 102 Nebraska
• 224 Minnesota

[medinabuckeye1]

Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin each have 10-11 losses and all are ranked 67-80 NET and 53-70 KenPom. 

Tonight's games may not quite be "must-win" for the Lions, Wolverines, and Badgers, but they are close to it.

[ELA]

Minnesota at Michigan State tomorrow night, obviously postponed.  No announcement yet on MSU at Michigan this Saturday