2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

For review, the tiers are:

• Purdue
• Rutgers, Michigan State, Indiana
• Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State, Wisconsin
• Nebraska
• Ohio State
• Minnesota

There was only one "upset" this week, UW's road win over PSU.  That still rearranged a lot of the projection because the teams are so bunched up.  The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois (wins tie with RU and MSU based on H2H2H, no games in Piscataway or East Lansing)
• 12-8/20-11 Rutgers (loses tie with Illinois based on H2H2H, beats MSU based on record against PU)
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa
• 11-9/20-11 Maryland
• 11-9/17-14 Michigan
• 11-9/20-11 Northwestern
• 11-9/20-11 Indiana
• 10-10/18-12 Wisconsin (wins tie with PSU based on H2H, won in State College)
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

The five-way tie for 5th-9th at 11-9 is broken first based on H2H2H2H2H:

• 4-2 Iowa because they do not travel to College Park nor Ann Arbor
• 3-2 Maryland because they do not host Iowa and do not travel to Evanston nor Bloomington
• 4-3 Michigan because they do not host Iowa and beat Northwestern in Evanston
• 3-4 Northwestern because they do not host Maryland, beat Indiana in Bloomington, and lost to Michigan at home
• 2-5 Indiana because they do not host Maryland and lost at home to NU

Thus, the match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Iowa vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Maryland vs PSU/MN, 9
• #7 Michigan vs #10 Wisconsin, 630
• #8 Northwestern vs #9 Indiana, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs NU/IU, noon (Talk about an INTENSE game if this ended up PU vs IU)
• #2 Illinois vs M/UW, 630
• #3 Rutgers vs UMD/PSU/MN, 9
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/NU/IU vs MSU/IA/UNL/tOSU, 1
• IL/M/UW vs RU/UMD/PSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/NU/IU/MSU/IA/UNL/tOSU vs IL/M/UW/RU/UMD/PSU/MN, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

All 14 teams play this weekend:

• PSU at UMD Sat, noon, BTN
• RU at IL, Sat 2p, FS1
• UW at UNL, Sat, 4p, BTN
• IU at M, Sat, 6p, ESPN
• IA at MN, Sun, 1p, FS1
• MSU at tOSU, Sun, 1p, CBS
• PU at NU, Sun, 2p, BTN

We project that the home teams will win all four games on Saturday and lose all three games on Sunday.  

[medinabuckeye1]

First of the year:
Locks:

• 12-2/23-2 Purdue:  Even their worst-case-scenario of losing all the rest of their regular season games and their BTT opener would be safely in at 12-8 in the league and 23-9 overall.  

Should be in:

• 8-5/17-7 Indiana:  They have a challenging remaining schedule and could fall out but they should be in.  
• 8-5/16-8 Rutgers:  Like IU, they should be in.  
• 7-5/18-7 Illinois:  They should be in and would be in if the tournament started tomorrow but they need a few more wins to lock it down.  
• 7-6/16-8 Maryland:  Same as IL.  

Work to do:

• 8-5/17-7 Northwestern:  Odd team.  They are great on the road (arguably better than PU) but awful at home (arguably worse than tOSU).  They need to keep winning.  
• 8-5/14-10 Michigan:  Their league record is the same as NU, RU, and IU but their overall record is MUCH worse and includes a dreadfully bad loss to a directional Michigan school.  With 10 overall losses already they are running out of losses to give and they still have seven games to play.  
• 7-6/15-9 Michigan State:  Their win in Columbus this weekend will help but they'll still need a few more.  
• 7-6/15-9 Iowa:  They would probably be on the bubble if the tournament started tomorrow so they need to amass win volume and stay on the right side of .500 in the league.  

Precarious.  Ie, they probably would NOT be in today but could still get there but are running out of time:

• 6-7/14-9 Wisconsin:  They don't have a lot of losses to give but their remaining schedule seems reasonably favorable.  They can get there but they are running out of room for error.  
• 5-8/14-10 Penn State:  The recent home loss to Wisconsin was devastating.  They can still make it but they need to start winning in a hurry.  

Could make it without winning BTT, but it would take a miracle:

• 4-10/11-14 Nebraska:  If they won their six remaining regular season games that would get them to 10-10/17-14.  If they then made it to and lost the B1GCG that would give them a final record of either 20-15 or 21-15 and that would be in.  
• 3-10/11-13 Ohio State:  If they won their seven remaining regular season games that would get them to 10-10/18-13.  If they then made it to and lost the B1GCG that would give them a final record of either 21-14 or 22-14 and that would be in.  

Need to win BTT:

• 1-11/7-15 Minnesota:  If they won their eight remaining regular season games that would get them to 9-11/15-15.  If they then made it to and lost the B1GCG that would give them a final record of either 18-16 or 19-16 and I *THINK* that would leave them on the outside looking in.  

[ELA]

I like how what I think Michigan State needs to do to feel safely in, also lines up getting them a double bye

[bayareabadger]

Right now, the nerd math projects UW finishing one game out of functional lock status, which I'm guessing would mean needing to win twice in Indy (18-13 is probably in, 18-14 is our bubble, 19-14 that includes a higher-level Big Ten win is probably in). The biggest BTT risk is that if the seeds fall wrong, they might get a PSU-Purdue path, and I want none of that. 

The projected win percentages the rest of the way:
74
58
56
52
41
30
26

So it's basically about going 4-1 in that top group, which means win three of the next four. If they want to win the next four or win three and then upset someone to take the pressure off that last game, I'd take that as well. 

[boilerbanger]

Right now, the nerd math projects UW finishing one game out of functional lock status, which I'm guessing would mean needing to win twice in Indy (18-13 is probably in, 18-14 is our bubble, 19-14 that includes a higher-level Big Ten win is probably in). The biggest BTT risk is that if the seeds fall wrong, they might get a PSU-Purdue path, and I want none of that.

The projected win percentages the rest of the way:
74
58
56
52
41
30
26

So it's basically about going 4-1 in that top group, which means win three of the next four. If they want to win the next four or win three and then upset someone to take the pressure off that last game, I'd take that as well.

I will guarantee that Wisconsin will not win a BTT game in Indy this year.

[847badgerfan]

Hah!

Me too.

[bayareabadger]

I will guarantee that Wisconsin will not win a BTT game in Indy this year.

All BTTs are spiritually in Indy for me. Even the ones not there. 

(I swear, UW is going to lose at Neb and kill me)

[FearlessF]

fingers crossed

about the Badger loss, not on you being killed by it

[medinabuckeye1]

So it's basically about going 4-1 in that top group, which means win three of the next four. If they want to win the next four or win three and then upset someone to take the pressure off that last game, I'd take that as well.

So, as a Wisconsin fan, how critical do you think it is for the Badgers to win the game this afternoon in Lincoln?

From my perspective as a neutral observer, it might be slightly over-dramatic to call it a "must win", but only slightly. As I see it, there is still a path with a loss today but that path involves winning tougher games than this one. 

[847badgerfan]

Must-win today.



We never know what UM team is gonna show up. Rutgers is really good. Purdue as well. Iowa is improved. The home advantage in Madison is not what it used to be.

Road games are hard.

[bayareabadger]

So, as a Wisconsin fan, how critical do you think it is for the Badgers to win the game this afternoon in Lincoln?

From my perspective as a neutral observer, it might be slightly over-dramatic to call it a "must win", but only slightly. As I see it, there is still a path with a loss today but that path involves winning tougher games than this one.

Hmmm, that's interesting. 

It depends on how one defines "must win." Do I think they CAN make it without a win today, technically yes. But it cuts off a lot of the most obvious avenues to getting a bid, so they really should just do it. It's must win for the flexibility of their prospects. 

[bayareabadger]

Feeling a UW loss in my bones. Or that might be soreness from a long run. 

[FearlessF]

Huskers are seriously depleted on the roster

the mayor's son playing 

Walker and Tominaga will need to have big games

I'll bet on the badgers