Updated league title race. The combination of Purdue's loss in Bloomington and Rutgers' home win keeps the league title race at least somewhat interesting although Illinois' loss in Iowa City means that they didn't capitalize on the chance to close the gap.
Thus discussion necessarily starts with the leading Boilermakers. They are 11-2 which puts them two games up in the loss column with seven to go. Thus:
- If PU goes 6-1 or better they win the title outright no matter what.
- If PU goes 5-2 they win at least a share an only RU could tie them.
- If PU goes 4-3 or worse then multiple teams have a shot.
The problem for the teams chasing Purdue is their remaining schedule isn't particularly daunting. Purdue's remaining games roughly in order of most likely to least likely loss:
- At UMD (7-5), 2/16
- At NU (6-5), 2/12
- At UW (5-6), 3/2
- Vs IU (7-5), 2/25
- Vs IA (7-5), 2/9
- Vs IL (7-5), 3/5
- Vs tOSU (3-8), 2/19
I think the key is Purdue's back-to-back road games next weekend and next week. If they win those, it is over.
Everybody else:
Rutgers is 8-4 and beat Purdue in West Lafayette but they do not host the Boilermakers this year so all they can do is keep winning and rooting for Purdue's opponents.
Indiana, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, and Michigan each have five losses. Only Indiana has beaten the Boilermakers. Maryland and Northwestern host them while Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois visit Mackey.
All the five-loss teams need a lot of help since none of them play Purdue more than one more time and they would need Purdue to lose at least thrice.
Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin each have six losses so they are in the race mathematically but they would need an extremely unlikely combination of finishing MUCH better than they have looked so far and Purdue finishing MUCH worse than they have looked so far.
Nebraska has nine losses as will Ohio State within about half an hour so one of them could theoretically tie the Boilermakers but they would need two things:
- To win out, and
- For Purdue to lose out.
Neither of those things have a likelihood distinguishable from zero so they are out.
Minnesota is mathematically eliminated.