2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Their Luck Rating in KenPom, which I think is essentially how much their actual record deviates from their expected record, based on their efficiencies, is #107.  So, not particularly lucky.  Wisconsin, Northwestern and MSU rank 1-2-3 in the Big Ten in that, with Purdue #4.

Ohio State is dead last in the nation, #363.  So you could either say things should change.  Or medina would say it's coaching in all of these close losses

[ELA]

Sunday they'll get MSU's best shot. 

Have you seen MSU play in Mackey?

[ELA]

KenPom now projects Rutgers to finish 2nd, at 12-8.  Then #3-#12 all between 11-9 and 9-11.  One upset could be the difference between playing on Wednesday and getting a double bye

[boilerbanger]

Medina, agree with your post, everyone at the top of the mountain gets the other teams best shot for obvious reasons.  I would also like to see Purdue put teams away, but I think the difference between Purdue and #10 or #12 in our league is not as great as the rankings would make it appear.  The other teams have guys are scholarship too that are pretty damn good and they have coaches that are also pretty damn good and they are playing their butts off trying to win.

The thing I like most about Purdue is they typically don't take bad shots, if they can get a little better on turnovers I think they could start winning a little more convincingly.

[boilerbanger]

KenPom now projects Rutgers to finish 2nd, at 12-8.  Then #3-#12 all between 11-9 and 9-11.  One upset could be the difference between playing on Wednesday and getting a double bye

Going to come down to the last weekend for that double bye it seems like, should be exciting.  Be hard to plan for tickets for many teams on what day to go.

[medinabuckeye1]

Both results last night were as projected and I'll update the projections here.  

This weekend is the half-way point of the season.  With the exception of NU (8), all teams have now played either nine or 10 league games and all 14 play another this weekend so Monday's update will be the second half-way update.  

At least for now the tiers are:

• PU, RU
• UW, MSU
• M, UMD, IA, NU, IL, tOSU, PSU, IU
• UNL
• BLANK
• MN

The upsets so far have been:

That is 15 upsets in roughly 70 games so one upset something like every 4-5 games.  That seems reasonable.  

Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Rutgers
• 12-8/20-10 Wisconsin
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/18-13 Iowa
• 10-10/19-12 Maryland
• 10-10/19-12 Northwestern
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 9-11/18-13 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Penn State
• 9-11/17-14 Ohio State
• 9-11/18-13 Illinois
• 6-14/13-18 Nebraska
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreakers:
For the four-way tie at 10-10 for 5th/6th/7th/8th between IA, UMD, NU, and M:

• 3-1 Iowa wins because they do not visit College Park nor Ann Arbor.  
• 2-2 Maryland is second, they do not host Iowa nor visit Evanston.  
• 2-3 Northwestern ties M H2H2H2H (do not host UMD) and beats M based on record against MSU.  
• 2-3 Michigan.  

For the four-way tie at 9-11 for 9th/10th/11th/12th between 

• 3-1 Indiana ties PSU in H2H2H2H, beats PSU based on record against UW because they do not visit Madison
• 3-1 Penn State
• 2-2 Ohio State because they do not host IU nor visit State College
• 1-5 Illinois because they lost at home to both PSU and IU

Thus the match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois would be:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Ohio State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Illinois vs #13 Nebraska, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Iowa vs IL/UNL, 230
• #6 Maryland vs tOSU/MN, 9
• #7 Northwestern vs #10 Penn State, 630
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs M/IU, noon
• #2 Rutgers vs NU/PSU, 630
• #3 Wisconsin vs UMD/tOSU/MN, 9
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/IL/UNL, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/M/IU vs MSU/IA/IL/UNL, 1
• RU/NU/PSU vs UW/UMD/tOSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/M/IU/MSU/IA/IL/UNL vs RU/NU/PSU/UW/UMD/tOSU/MN, 330

As usual I want to include a reminder that this is VERY fluid, moreso than most years.  The projected gap between the #3 seed and the #12 seed is only three games so if UW or MSU has a bad week they might suddenly find themselves projected to play on Wednesday and if IL or tOSU had a good week they might find themselves getting not only Wednesday but also Thursday off.  

[medinabuckeye1]

KenPom now projects Rutgers to finish 2nd, at 12-8.  Then #3-#12 all between 11-9 and 9-11.  One upset could be the difference between playing on Wednesday and getting a double bye

I posted almost exactly the same thing in the tier update before I read this.  

Going to come down to the last weekend for that double bye it seems like, should be exciting.  Be hard to plan for tickets for many teams on what day to go.

Exactly.  

To take my team as an example, the Buckeyes' last game is at MSU and it is a projected loss.  With the loss they finish 9-11, tied for 9th-12th, and play on Wednesday as the #11 seed.  

If you flip that last game, the Buckeyes and Spartans both finish 10-10 and tied for 4th through 9th and I *THINK* the Buckeyes would win that tie because they'd have road wins in both Evanston and East Lansing so their H2H...2H would be REALLY good.  

If that is correct then Ohio State's final game of the season would be the difference between playing Minnesota on Wednesday as the #11 seed and resting until Friday to play the #5/12/13 winner as the #4 seed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State is dead last in the nation, #363.  So you could either say things should change.  Or medina would say it's coaching in all of these close losses

LoL.

You are right, that is what I would say.

As I've said to @MaximumSam within this thread in relation to other explanations/justifications/excuses I'd be more open to that if this were year three or four. It isn't, this is year six with zero B1G titles and zero trips beyond the first weekend of the tournament. I'm past the point of caring why.

That said, this doesn't particularly surprise me.  Looking at all nine losses this season:

• OT vs UNC, MSG
• OT at RU
• 2 points vs PU
• 3 points vs MN
• 3 points at UNL
• 7 points at UMD
• 9 points at Dook
• 9 points at IL
• 11 points vs SDSU, Maui

So they are barely over .500 without suffering a single blowout and with only four losses that couldn't have been flipped by making a single shot.  

Their eight January games are a pretty good illustration of this:

• A 16 point blowout of Northwestern in Evanston
• A 16 point blowout of Iowa at home
• Six fairly close losses

If we could trade those for four close wins and four close losses (or even four blowout losses) they would be 13-7/5-4 and I'd be content to wait and see.  We can't and I'm not.  

[MaximumSam]

LoL.

You are right, that is what I would say.

As I've said to @MaximumSam within this thread in relation to other explanations/justifications/excuses I'd be more open to that if this were year three or four. It isn't, this is year six with zero B1G titles and zero trips beyond the first weekend of the tournament. I'm past the point of caring why.

That said, this doesn't particularly surprise me.  Looking at all nine losses this season:

• OT vs UNC, MSG
• OT at RU
• 2 points vs PU
• 3 points vs MN
• 3 points at UNL
• 7 points at UMD
• 9 points at Dook
• 9 points at IL
• 11 points vs SDSU, Maui

So they are barely over .500 without suffering a single blowout and with only four losses that couldn't have been flipped by making a single shot. 

Their eight January games are a pretty good illustration of this:

• A 16 point blowout of Northwestern in Evanston
• A 16 point blowout of Iowa at home
• Six fairly close losses

If we could trade those for four close wins and four close losses (or even four blowout losses) they would be 13-7/5-4 and I'd be content to wait and see.  We can't and I'm not. 

You wanna be Louisville? Cause this is how we get to be Louisville.

[bayareabadger]

You wanna be Louisville? Cause this is how we get to be Louisville.

Ehhh, that’s extremely extreme. 

Like, a program like OSU that has teams that deliver worse records than their ability eventually makes a change. I think Wisconsin could treadmill, but OSU’s talent access should allow for at least one team after the first. 

I might just be worn down by Medina essays, so that might just be my problem. 

[MaximumSam]

Ehhh, that’s extremely extreme.

Like, a program like OSU that has teams that deliver worse records than their ability eventually makes a change. I think Wisconsin could treadmill, but OSU’s talent access should allow for at least one team after the first.

I might just be worn down by Medina essays, so that might just be my problem.

Heh well yeah, you have to really try to be as bad as Louisville. But Louisville is a bigger basketball program than OSU, ran their coach off when he didn't deliver Louisville basketball, and now find themselves among the Wagners and Arkansas-Pine-Bluffs. OSU basketball really doesn't have a ton of support in the community - the arena sucks and they don't sell out. I still have a subscription the The Athletic and it doesn't even cover OSU basketball anymore. All that's to say, OSU used to be attractive because you got the perks of a giant athletic department without the pressure. With NIL, I'm not sure how much the Buckeyes can compete. It's very nebulous to speculate on such a thing with the lack of hard numbers anywhere, but that's been my biggest worry.

[847badgerfan]

Illinois looks bad.

Wisconsin looks worse.

20-16 at the half.

THE HALF!!

[ELA]

Every time MSU picks up a "quality" win, that team falls off a cliff.  Kentucky, Villanova, Oregon, @Wisconsin.  If you told me preseason MSU won ALL of those games, I'd say we'd be a Top 10 team at worst.

Instead we beat a fringe top 25 team, and 3 NIT teams, only 1 on the road

[medinabuckeye1]

Illinois looks bad.

Wisconsin looks worse.

20-16 at the half.

THE HALF!!

Luckily for the Badgers' next game is an easy one.