2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

I can't remember which sport, but I vaguely recollect that hiring "the best coach in YSU history" worked out pretty well for the Buckeyes.  LoL

And yet they passed on Bo Pelini

[TyphonInc]

Holtman's adversion to winning in January has reared it's ugly head again with OSU's 5th straight loss. Even the last two years when he made it through January he still had a month that just looked bad. 

'23: 1-5
'22: 5-2 (but he was saving his epic failure month for March (2-5)
'21: 6-2 (went into the Big Ten Tourney on a 4 game losing streak.)
'20: 2-5
'19: 1-6

Elite programs/coaches don't take entire months off. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Holtman's adversion to winning in January has reared it's ugly head again with OSU's 5th straight loss. Even the last two years when he made it through January he still had a month that just looked bad.

'23: 1-5
'22: 5-2 (but he was saving his epic failure month for March (2-5)
'21: 6-2 (went into the Big Ten Tourney on a 4 game losing streak.)
'20: 2-5
'19: 1-6

Elite programs/coaches don't take entire months off.

It should be noted that January of 2022 wasn't nearly as good as that 5-2 looks. The five wins were:

• In OT over a terrible Nebraska team.
• Over a bad Northwestern team.
• Over a bad Penn State team.
• Over a ridiculously pathetic IUPUI team (several Ohio High Schools would have been more challenging).
• Over a terrible Minnesota team.

Meanwhile the two losses were non-competitive games against tournament teams so 0-2 against competent opposition. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm going to unilaterally move Ohio State down a tier.  If anyone disagrees we can discuss it here but it is pretty cut-and-dried:

• The Buckeyes are the only team outside of +/-1 in net upsets.  They are -2 with one positive and three negative upsets.  
• Dropping them a tier eliminates the positive upset (@NU) and two of the negative upsets (vsMN, @UNL).  At the same time, the home win over Rutgers becomes a positive upset thus moving tOSU to a net +1 with the wins over Rutgers and Northwestern as positive upsets and the home loss to Minnesota as their only remaining negative upset.  

Thus, the new tiers are:

• PU, RU-1
• UW, MSU
• M, IL, UMD, IA, NU+1, tOSU+1, PSU, IU-1
• UNL-1
• BLANK
• MN+1

I've also updated the projection for the Iowa/Northwestern cancellation.  For the time being I am assuming that the game will NOT be rescheduled.  If/when it gets rescheduled, I'll make the appropriate changes.  

Based on the above, the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Rutgers
• 12-8/20-10 Wisconsin
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/19-12 Maryland
• 10-10/19-12 Illinois
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 9-10/18-12 Northwestern
• 9-10/17-13 Iowa
• 9-11/17-14 Ohio State
• 9-11/18-13 Penn State
• 8-12/17-14 Indiana
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreakers:
For the three-way tie at 10-10 between Michigan, Illinois, and Maryland:

• UMD wins based on a projected H2H2H of 2-1 because they do not visit Champaign
• IL gets the next spot based on a projected H2H2H of 1-1 because they do not host UMD nor visit Ann Arbor
• M gets the last spot based on a projected H2H2H of 1-2 because they do not host IL

For the tie at 9-10 between Iowa and Northwestern:

• Northwestern wins because the postponed/cancelled game was in Iowa City leaving the game in Evanston as the only game between the two teams and the Wildcats are projected to win that on February 19.  
• Iowa's H2H is 0-1.  

For the tie at 9-11 between Ohio State and Penn State:

• Ohio State wins because they do not visit State College this year so their projected H2H is 1-0.  
• Penn State loses because they do not host the Buckeyes this year so their projected H2H is 0-1.  

NOTE:
If the IA/NU game is rescheduled it would be a projected Iowa win / Northwestern loss which would move Iowa into the 10-10 tie and Northwestern into the 9-11 tie.  

Anyway, the above would result in the following match-ups for the B1G Tournament in the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
Wednesday, March 8:

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Minnesota, 830 BTN
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Nebraska, 6 BTN

Thursday, March 9:

• #5 Maryland vs IU/UNL, 230 BTN
• #6 Illinois vs PSU/MN, 9 BTN
• #7 Michigan vs #10 Ohio State, 630 BTN
• #8 Northwestern vs #9 Iowa, noon BTN

Friday, March 10:

• #1 Purdue vs NU/IA, noon BTN
• #2 Rutgers vs M/tOSU, 630 BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU/MN, 9 BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs UMD/IU/UNL, 230 BTN

Saturday, March 11:

• PU/NU/IA vs MSU/UMD/IU/UNL, 1 CBS
• RU/M/tOSU vs UW/IL/PSU/MN, 330 CBS

Sunday, March 12:

• PU/NU/IA/MSU/UMD/IU/UNL vs RU/M/tOSU/UW/IL/PSU/MN, 330 CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

If the above projections played out exactly it would create a fascinating tournament because as I look at it, we'd have eight teams on the bubble.  As I see the above:
Locks:

• 29-2/18-2 Purdue - this one is obvious.  
• 24-7/16-4 Rutgers - same.  
• 20-10/12-8 Wisconsin - This one isn't as obvious because 20-11 with a loss in their BTT opener wouldn't be great but I think it would still get them in pretty easily.  
• 19-12/11-9 Michigan State - It would be unusual to call a 19-win team a lock but I think that with their schedule and Izzo, MSU would be in at 19-13.  

Need to win BTT:

• 14-17/7-13 Nebraska - Obviously anything less than a BTT Championship wouldn't be enough.  
• 7-23/1-19 Minnesota - See above.  

So that leaves EIGHT teams on the bubble:

• 19-12/10-10 Illinois - In theory the Illini could get in without an additional win but the problem is that if they lost their opener it would either be to a PSU team that is on the bubble with them or to a REALLY bad Minnesota team.  
• 19-12/10-10 Maryland - Same as IL except substitute IU and UNL for PSU and MN.  
• 16-15/10-10 Michigan - Their .500 league record is ok but their overall record including that ugly loss to Directional-Michigan is not.  Then, to make it even more exciting their BTT opener is against their hated rival:
• 17-14/9-11 Ohio State - They are a game better than Michigan overall but a game worse in the league which likely makes the tOSU/M game an elimination game.  
• 18-12/9-10 Northwestern - They would need at least one more win and their BTT opener would be against:
• 17-13/9-10 Iowa - Same as Northwestern which makes the IA/NU another elimination game.  
• 18-13/9-11 Penn State - The Nittany Lions open with Minnesota and they absolutely could not afford to lose that.  If they beat the Gophers they get Illinois on Thursday and a win there has them looking pretty good heading into a Friday game against Wisconsin.  
• 17-14/8-12 Indiana - The Hoosiers open with Nebraska and they absolutely could not afford to lose that.  If they beat the Cornhuskers they get Maryland on Thursday and they'd likely need to win at least that game as well.  With a win over the Terps they'd get the Spartans on Friday and a win over MSU would likely secure a spot for them.  

[medinabuckeye1]

It should be noted that January of 2022 wasn't nearly as good as that 5-2 looks. The five wins were:

• In OT over a terrible Nebraska team.
• Over a bad Northwestern team.
• Over a bad Penn State team.
• Over a ridiculously pathetic IUPUI team (several Ohio High Schools would have been more challenging).
• Over a terrible Minnesota team.

Meanwhile the two losses were non-competitive games against tournament teams so 0-2 against competent opposition.

Also, they weren't 5-2 last January, they were 5-3 but the third loss was actually a "good" loss so it was on the upswing. On Sunday, January 30 they lost by three on the road to #6 Purdue. 

[bayareabadger]

I thought I posted earlier that Medina is going to get his wish. This solved itself in what amounts to the most natural way.

[medinabuckeye1]

I thought I posted earlier that Medina is going to get his wish. This solved itself in what amounts to the most natural way.

It is certainly looking that way. The losses to Minnesota and Nebraska are BAD and will be difficult to overcome. I honestly can't imagine Gene Smith not making a change if we miss the Tournament but you never know. Plus, the Ohio State Athletic Department may be in transition in the not altogether unlikely event that the league picks Smith.

[grillrat]

The Northwestern / Iowa game has been rescheduled for January 31st.

[medinabuckeye1]

The Northwestern / Iowa game has been rescheduled for January 31st.

Thanks! So, as mentioned above:

NOTE:
If the IA/NU game is rescheduled it would be a projected Iowa win / Northwestern loss which would move Iowa into the 10-10 tie and Northwestern into the 9-11 tie.

Thus we now have a projected four-way tie at 10-10 and a projected three-way tie at 9-11.
For the 10-10 tie:

• 3-0 Iowa because they do not visit Champaign, College Park, nor Ann Arbor.
• 2-2 Maryland because they do not visit Champaign nor host Iowa.
• 1-2 Illinois because they do not host Iowa nor Maryland and do not visit Ann Arbor.
• 1-3 Michigan because they do not host Illinois nor Iowa.

For the 9-11 tie:

• 3-0 Ohio State because they do not visit State College and won in Evanston.
• 1-2 Northwestern because they do not visit State College and lost at home to tOSU.
• 0-2 Penn State because they do not host the Buckeyes nor the Wildcats.

Thus the seeds for those teams are:

• 5 Iowa
• 6 Maryland
• 7 Illinois
• 8 Michigan
• 9 Ohio State
• 10 Northwestern
• 11 Penn State

[847badgerfan]

Wisconsin will not play Northwestern this weekend (247sports.com)

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin will not play Northwestern this weekend (247sports.com)

More of those nerds should’ve taken their vitamins 

[medinabuckeye1]

Wisconsin will not play Northwestern this weekend (247sports.com)

Got it, thanks.  

Just like I did with IA/NU, I'm going to assume, for now, that the game will NOT be played until it is rescheduled so if/when it does get rescheduled please let me know and I'll update the projections accordingly.  The game, UW@NU is a projected UW loss / NU win.  

We had one upset last night, the Hoosiers won in Champaign.  

Upsets so far have been:



The tiers are:

• PU, RU-1
• UW, MSU
• M, UMD, IA, IL-1, tOSU+1, PSU, IU, NU+1
• UNL-1
• BLANK
• MN+1

Thus, the updated projected final standings / BTT Seeds are:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Rutgers
• 12-7/20-9 Wisconsin
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/18-13 Iowa
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 10-10/19-12 Maryland
• 9-11/18-13 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Penn State
• 9-11/17-14 Ohio State
• 9-11/18-13 Illinois
• 8-11/17-13 Northwestern
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreakers:
For the 10-10 tie between M, UMD, and IA:

• Iowa wins based on a projected H2H2H of 2-0 due to the fact that they do not visit College Park nor Ann Arbor.  
• Michigan:  Michigan and Maryland both project to finish 1-2 H2H2H with each other and Iowa so they break their tie based on record against the best team(s), then the next, etc.  Michigan eventually wins that based on record against MSU because the Terps do not host the Spartans.  
• Maryland.  

For the 9-11 tie between IL, tOSU, PSU, and IU:

•  Indiana:  The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions tie in H2H2H2H at 3-1 because they both won in Champaign and the Hoosiers do not visit Columbus while the Lions do not visit Iowa Bloomington.  The two of them move to record against the next best team(s) then the next, etc.  Indiana wins based on record against Wisconsin because they do not visit Madison.  
•  Penn State
• Ohio State:  The Buckeyes projected H2H2H2H is 2-2 because they do not host the Hoosiers nor visit State College.  
• Illinois:  The Illini's projected H2H2H2H is 1-5 because they lost home games to both the Nittany Lions and the Hoosiers.  

Thus, the projected match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois are:
Wednesday, March 8:

• #11 Illinois vs #14 Minnesota, 830 BTN
• #12 Northwestern vs #13 Nebraska 6 BTN

Thursday, March 9:

• #5 Iowa vs NU/UNL, 230 BTN
• #6 Michigan vs IL/MN, 9 BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Ohio State, 630 BTN
• #8 Indiana vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN

Friday, March 10:

• #1 Purdue vs IU/PSU, noon BTN
• #2 Rutgers vs UMD/tOSU, 630 BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs M/IL/MN, 9 BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/NU/UNL, 230 BTN

Saturday, March 11:

• PU/IU/PSU vs MSU/IA/NU/UNL, 1 CBS
• RU/UMD/tOSU vs UW/M/IL/MN, 330 CBS

Sunday, March 12:

• PU/IU/PSU/MSU/IA/NU/UNL vs RU/UMD/tOSU/UW/M/IL/MN, 330 CBS

A comment on fluidity:
My perception is that the league is bunched tighter than usual.  It seems to me that we have eight borderline tournament teams (M, UMD, IA, IL, tOSU, PSU, IU, NU) plus two or three more (MSU, UW, and maybe RU) that are barely above that.  Consequently, this season has an "anything can happen" feel to it where there are tons of "upsets" but not a lot of shocking surprises.  
As an example, look at my team, Ohio State:
Their next two games are hosting Iowa on Saturday and visiting Champaign on Tuesday.  Those project as a win and a loss respectively but would anyone be surprised if they lost at home to Iowa and won in Champaign, lost both, or won both?  Given that the Buckeyes are in the midst of a typical Holtmann January collapse, they'll probably lose both but Illinois just lost at home to Indiana so a win there wouldn't be shocking and the Iowa game is at home so again, a win wouldn't be shocking.  

Note that there is only a 1.5 game difference in the projected final record between the #5 seed Iowa (10-10) and the projected #12 seed Northwestern (8-11) so any upset involving any of the teams projected to finish in that range has implications for almost every team in that range.  

Finally, to answer @Brutus Buckeye 's question, in order for Ohio State to meet Michigan in the BTT, the following would have to happen:

• Ohio State would have to win their BTT opener against Maryland at 630 on Thursday.  
• Michigan would have to win their BTT opener against the IL/MN winner at 9pm on Thursday.  
• Ohio State would have to upset Rutgers in their quarter-final at 630 on Friday.  
• Michigan would have to upset Wisconsin in their quarter-final at 9 on Friday.  

If all of that happened then the Buckeyes and Wolverines would play in the later semi-final on Saturday.  

[medinabuckeye1]

We were scheduled to have six league games this weekend but due to the Badgers/Wildcats postponement/cancellation we now have 10 of 14 teams scheduled to play this weekend:

• Iowa at Ohio State, 2pm on FOX Saturday
• Nebraska at Penn State 2:15pm on BTN Saturday
• Minnesota at Michigan noon on BTN Sunday
• Michigan State at Indiana noon on CBS Sunday
• Maryland at Purdue 1pm on FS1 Sunday