So UW has topped expectations at this point (surprise, surprise). They're 9-2, should be 11-2 by start of conference play, and they open with the league's worst team in Madison, so barring a disaster, 12-2 with a feisty overall schedule.
Projection has them favored by more than 5 only three times in the final 17 games, both a tribute to them not yet making a massive jump in the predictive metrics and a conference with a pretty good set of teams after 10.
What's been most interesting is how UW got here. I came in thinking, there are three star-type guys. If they do their jobs, they need a few role guys to step up and we'll be alright. What's happened is the stars have been between quite good and "I know you have more there" and they hit on three role guys in big way. Depth is still an issue, but I think if the best guys turn it on, there's more room to improve. A look at some dudes and how they're playing compared to what I realistically thought they could be:
Tyler Wahl, playing 80-85 percent to potential: The offense is running through him and he's been a good rebounder, plus a top defender as always. His offensive efficiency has been much worst than it should be as he sometimes presses into turnovers and sometimes decides to take some really ambitious shots. Still, overall pretty happy with him.
Chucky Hepburn, playing 70 percent to his potential: Still a floor general, steady presence, great defender, etc. Hasn't been able to take over on offense like I'd hoped as a creator. At the moment, he's hitting 34 percent from inside the arc. I know he can be better. Still, if that's the biggest star underperformer, not bad.
Steven Crowl, playing 85-90 percent to ability: He's been basically what I hoped. Could he be a little stronger in the post? Yes. Could he be hitting more than 25.8 percent of his 3s, which he has the ability to hit? Yes. Could his D be a bit better and free throw shooting be higher than 66 percent? I think so. That being said, he's a solid post option, great passer and rebounding much better than last year. I think he has more, but he's in a reasonable spot compared to where I'd hoped.
Max Klesmit, 100 percent to ability: He was a low-major transfer, and I hoped he could be a classic UW shooting guard. He's basically played to that standard and maybe a bit better. Plus defender, hitting 3s, smart and moving the ball, occasionally can create. His so-so 2-point shooting and a few too many turnovers are the only blemishes, but coming out of the portal, would've taken this.
Jordan Davis, 105 percent to ability: The hope with Davis was to be a classic UW floor spacer, low-usage, defend wings, hit 3s. He's occasionally too hyped on that shot, but he doesn't turn it over, finishes on cuts (less on long 2s) and is shooting a solid 34 percent from 3. I'd like a little more, but considering he was the 2-star package deal for his bro, a guy who can close games is net positive ROI.
Connor Essegian, 135 percent to ability: I would've thought he could've been a nice rotation floor spacer if his defense came around. His defense has been passable, but he's been a flame thrower. Kid might be the best pure shooter I've seen at UW. He's cocky and fearless, something the Badgers often don't have. I assume there's at least one better option at each spot, but he'll at least be a name for conference sixth man and freshman of the year, and that's cool for a recruit outside the top 225.
Elsewhere, Carter Gilmore is playing hard, but not an above average seventh man (if he could get a nominally good jumped under control, it would help). Transfer PR Kamari McGee has been jumped by walk-on transfer Isaac Lindsey, who is a bit too confident for his station, but a body and a kid who mostly knows what to do. I was hoping either Markus Ilver or Chris Hodges would step up. Ilver got a few minutes, but nothing notable. Hodges, not much there.
The projection machine picks them at 21-10, 12-8 in conference. I'd take that. Even looking at a likely 12-2 start, not too bad for a team many picked to miss the dance.
