IMHO the 2021 CFP field is the weakest so far.
#1 Alabama 12-1:
This isn't the first time that #1 has had a loss. The #1 teams in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 were undefeated but the #1 teams in 2014 and 2017 also had losses:
- 2014 Bama was 12-1 with a six point road loss to Ole Miss.
- 2017 Clemson was 12-1 with a three point road loss to Cuse.
2014 Ole Miss was 9-3 and #9 at the end of the regular season so a one score road loss to them is almost as "good" as a loss gets. 2017 Cuse was dreadful so that is a much worse loss but it was still a one-score road loss. Bama's loss this year was similarly by one score (three points) and on the road but it was to an aTm team that finished 8-4 and barely ranked. This year's Bama team also had numerous close calls and just strikes me as being not NEARLY as dominant as most #1's including their own teams from 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020.
#2 Michigan 12-1:
The #2 team has had a single loss every year except 2018 (Bama, Clemson, and ND all undefeated) and 2019 (LSU, tOSU, and Clemson all undefeated) but I just feel that Michigan wasn't NEARLY as dominant as most of the other #2's.
#3 Georgia 12-1:
The #3 team has had a single loss every year except the aforementioned 2018 and 2019 seasons when there were three undefeated teams and also 2014 when 13-0 FSU fell to #3 due to not looking particularly dominant in an ACC that was perceived (correctly) as not being all that good.
I'm really not sure what to make of UGA this year. They look a little like tOSU this year to me in that they are dominant until they aren't and then it isn't good. Ie, they severely dominated most of their schedule but then lost by three scores to the best team they faced.
#4 Cincinnati 13-0:
Cincinnati isn't the first undefeated G5 but they are the first G5 to get in. They weren't as dominant as 2018 UCF but, IMHO, they got in because the field simply wasn't that strong. Back in 2018 there were three "P5" undefeated teams (Bama, Clemson, ND) and two 1-loss P5 Champions. This year the next highest ranked team was Notre Dame. The Irish this year had a schedule that LOOKED great based on helmets (FSU) and preseason rankings (UNC) but ended up being only marginally better than Cincinnati's ridiculously weak schedule. Cincinnati also had a H2H win over the Irish which basically backstopped their ranking. On top of that, the rest of the available contenders all had two or more losses. I do NOT think that '21 Cincy was as good as nor do I think they would have gotten in over any of the following #4's:
- 2014 B1G Champion 12-1 tOSU coming off of a 59-0 B1GCG win.
- 2015 B12 Champion 11-1 Oklahoma
- 2016 PAC Champion 12-1 Washington
- 2017 11-1 Bama
- 2018 B12 Champion 12-1 Oklahoma
- 2019 B12 Champion 12-1 Oklahoma
- 2020 10-1 Notre Dame
Thus, I think that #4 is the weakest of the CFP era while #1 and #2 are also the weakest of the CFP era or close to it and only #3 is about average for a #3. Overall I think this is the weakest field.
I've always said that one of the "luck" items involved in winning an NC is simply having your great year at the right time*. IMHO, either the 2019 Clemson or tOSU squads would run over this year's field without breaking a sweat but neither of them won the NC because tOSU ran into Clemson and Clemson ran into a buzzsaw named LSU.
It is also interesting that #4 started out really strong with the first CFPNC and two of the first four but those were also the ONLY semi-finals that #4 has ever won and after starting 4-2 the #4 seed is now on a four game losing streak.
Records by seed:
- #1 seeds are 8-5 with two NC's and one team playing next week
- #2 seeds are 7-5 with three NC's
- #3 seeds are 4-7 with ZERO NC's and one team playing next week
- #4 seeds are 4-6 with two NC's
*A much older example of having your great year at the wrong time:
In 1973 Notre Dame won the NC at 11-0 with a close (24-23) SugarBowl win over #1 Bama. The final top-8 was as follows:
- 11-0 Notre Dame, beat previous #1 Bama in Sugar Bowl, 24-23
- 10-0-1 Ohio State, beat previous #7 USC in Rose Bowl 42-21
- 10-0-1 Oklahoma, no bowl (suspended I believe)
- 11-1 Alabama, lost to previous #3 ND in Sugar Bowl 24-23
- 12-0 Penn State,
- 10-0-1 Michigan, no bowl due to BigTen Rose only rule
- 9-2-1 Nebraska,
- 9-2-1 USC, lost to previous #4 tOSU in Rose Bowl 42-21
Note that both Ohio State and Michigan finished 10-0-1. The only blemish for each was their 10-10 tie in Ann Arbor when Ohio State was ranked #1 and Michigan was ranked #4.
Also note that Ohio State shredded USC 42-21 in the Rose Bowl. That USC team gave Oklahoma their only blemish (a 7-7 tie in LA) and lost a close game to eventual National Champion Notre Dame in South Bend.
USC finished #8 despite the fact that their two losses were to #1 ND on the road and to #2 tOSU and they also had a tie with #3 OU. Ie, USC was really good.
My point is that had either Michigan or Ohio State won the 1973 game, that team would have easily beaten USC (as tOSU did) and won the NC over ND. Unfortunately for both, they ran into each other, tied, and finished #2 and #6 while ND snuck away with the NC. Great timing by ND, horrible timing by tOSU, M and for that matter USC and OU.
