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Topic: 2021 Awards Season

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #224 on: December 19, 2021, 08:26:16 PM »
Excellent!
So do we throw all of the traditional stats in the trash can and only count PFF or do we take them both into account?

What's the quality control like at PFF?  Are there 'conflict of interest' safeguards?  Does one guy do each game?  Focus on 1 player?  Or do 2 or 3 do it and they go with the consensus?  Is it the same handful of people or do they have purposeful, annual turnover?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #225 on: December 19, 2021, 08:31:25 PM »
PFF actually talks in their little brochure about Vic Beasley leading the league in sacks one year, but upon closer review half his sacks weren't particularly special.
Well he opportunistic,get while the gettin's good
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MaximumSam

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #226 on: December 19, 2021, 09:07:51 PM »
Excellent!
So do we throw all of the traditional stats in the trash can and only count PFF or do we take them both into account?

What's the quality control like at PFF?  Are there 'conflict of interest' safeguards?  Does one guy do each game?  Focus on 1 player?  Or do 2 or 3 do it and they go with the consensus?  Is it the same handful of people or do they have purposeful, annual turnover?
I'm not sure how great they are. Their bread and butter is the NFL, and I imagine it is easier to do NFL games. I have always been a little suspect of their college stuff, because there are so many more games, and access to film seems like it would be a lot more limited. If you don't have All 22 type video, how do you even judge the secondary?

In any event, you can do with stats what you like. Defensive stats are mostly trash, because they don't really measure much of anything at all. They are also completely tempo dependent. You don't get any information on how many snaps a guy played, and how many the team played, etc. I think the best you can say is that a guy who accumulates a lot of stats is probably good. Otherwise, you are putting Chase Young and Greg Middleton in the same category, which is very much not where you want to be when judging players.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #227 on: December 19, 2021, 09:20:19 PM »
It would be nice to have Trackman data on defensive players, especially defensive backs and LBs.  Measuring their speed and distance traveled to a tackle or INT.  
If they can measure RB yardage after contact, can't they do the reverse for defenders?  
If they keep track of targets and catches for WRs, they can do the reverse for CBs.  But you have the man vs zone thing.  

Just because it'd be tricky doesn't mean it can't be done or done well.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #228 on: December 19, 2021, 11:00:17 PM »
Excellent!
So do we throw all of the traditional stats in the trash can and only count PFF or do we take them both into account?

What's the quality control like at PFF?  Are there 'conflict of interest' safeguards?  Does one guy do each game?  Focus on 1 player?  Or do 2 or 3 do it and they go with the consensus?  Is it the same handful of people or do they have purposeful, annual turnover?
It's data. More data is good.

Turning data into information is a skill.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #229 on: December 19, 2021, 11:07:41 PM »
No, that wouldn't be what I'm talking about. 
I'm sure you could come up with 100 others that don't fit what I'm talking about.  Instead of focusing on double-reverse passes, maybe consider the plays that happen 97% of the time instead of 0.0001%.
See, this is where it just doesn't add up. Because if you know what you're looking at, 97% of the unblocked TFLs are not because the offense simply failed to account for a player. But if a person didn't totally know what they were looking at, they might assume that. And it just seems silly to compile a stat based on not understanding what we're looking at ... for what end? The main one I could imagine is saying "actually, those TFL stats are really overstating it." 

There are just more direct ways to talk about dominance or whatever.

If you think I still just don't understand, feel free to show me the plays I'm misinterpreting. There are thousands of hours of football on this here internet, and I'd gladly be shown where I erred. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #230 on: December 19, 2021, 11:10:02 PM »
It would be nice to have Trackman data on defensive players, especially defensive backs and LBs.  Measuring their speed and distance traveled to a tackle or INT. 
If they can measure RB yardage after contact, can't they do the reverse for defenders? 
If they keep track of targets and catches for WRs, they can do the reverse for CBs.  But you have the man vs zone thing. 

Just because it'd be tricky doesn't mean it can't be done or done well.
NFL players are tracked like that, and a lot of NCAA players are too.

How do you mean yards after contact for defenders? Broken tackles? Yards after block? They do track block defeated stats in some corners. 

They do track defensive targets. PFF does. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #231 on: December 19, 2021, 11:45:06 PM »
It's data. More data is good.

Turning data into information is a skill.

This is why I was confident I could create a football game from scratch.  I'm good at math/toiling with numbers, studied gameplay, and know enough about football to make a meaningful, fun experience with it.

All I needed was a website guy, and Drew is the man!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #232 on: December 20, 2021, 12:04:49 AM »


If you think I still just don't understand, feel free to show me the plays I'm misinterpreting. There are thousands of hours of football on this here internet, and I'd gladly be shown where I erred.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Phzb0hq99M
2:04 here, W. Anderson....it's a stunt and he gets the sack, but did he do anything any OLB who runs under a 4.8 forty couldn't do?
.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjfI_oVCgRs&t=118s
3
:20 here, A.Hutchinson....it's a shit play-action and he's there, and gets the sack....but did he do anything special there?


These aren't examples of either player doing anything wrong or anything like that, but they made plays anyone decent would have made.  On both plays, they were unblocked.  Both plays ended in a sack.....as they should have.  The Hutchinson play was designed not to block him.  The Anderson play, the blocker was amusingly tardy and they simply handled the stunt poorly.  

But these are good examples of what I've been talking about.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #233 on: December 20, 2021, 08:23:02 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Phzb0hq99M
2:04 here, W. Anderson....it's a stunt and he gets the sack, but did he do anything any OLB who runs under a 4.8 forty couldn't do?
.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjfI_oVCgRs&t=118s
3
:20 here, A.Hutchinson....it's a shit play-action and he's there, and gets the sack....but did he do anything special there?


These aren't examples of either player doing anything wrong or anything like that, but they made plays anyone decent would have made.  On both plays, they were unblocked.  Both plays ended in a sack.....as they should have.  The Hutchinson play was designed not to block him.  The Anderson play, the blocker was amusingly tardy and they simply handled the stunt poorly. 

But these are good examples of what I've been talking about.
Hmmm. Interesting. 

The first one, it ends up a 2-3 gap stunt. That's not easy, especially as fast as he did it. But you're correct, it's the product of good scheme. 

The second one, I probably give Hutchinson a good deal of credit. He's almost never gonna crash there, but he gains ground really quickly while the QB is bootlegging. He does a good job keeping hands up and ensuring the passing lane is closed. The short WR is open on the whip, but Hutchinson's ability to play in control, read the situation and get where he's going quicker than most makes that a sack where a lot of D ends likely give up the pass to the flat. It's not a prefect two-play (taking away QB run and throw), but an above average one. 

This opens a larger question. In this scenario, we're basically saying if you're a weapon on a blitz or stunt, those stats should be counted as lesser (especially a kind of stunt that's easy to eff up for the defense because it's almost never picked up). And if you cover ground well under control, it also should be lesser to a degree. So do we punish people for making the plays that are there? That seems overcomplicated, reductive and quite squishy.

You're better off measuring upside plays (or downside plays). Doubles and triples draws (assuming they don't drive you into the dirt), different degrees of pop plays, percent of blocks beaten. Or maybe finding rates (pressures per drop back or some such thing). It seemed oddly roundabout to start with the numbers and then try to factor out the average, especially when it's really just focused on TFLs and sacks. (It's also weird to create a situation where a free runner situation is counted against a defender, but I guess if you want to)

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #234 on: December 20, 2021, 11:39:58 AM »
I was just showing you that those 'free runner' situations happen plenty. 

If you look at the rest of either highlight video, these guys make stupid-crazy plays....splitting double-teams, overpowering a 300 lber one play, then slipping through a gap another play.  

I'm surprised that many here seem to poo-poo stats like tackles, TFL, and sacks.  It seems sudden to me.  I can't help but think if Anderson's and Hutchinson's numbers were traded, there wouldn't be this focus on PFF and this downgrading of the common stats.

I'm not trying to say that's the case, I just can't help but think it.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #235 on: December 20, 2021, 12:15:15 PM »
I was just showing you that those 'free runner' situations happen plenty.

If you look at the rest of either highlight video, these guys make stupid-crazy plays....splitting double-teams, overpowering a 300 lber one play, then slipping through a gap another play. 

I'm surprised that many here seem to poo-poo stats like tackles, TFL, and sacks.  It seems sudden to me.  I can't help but think if Anderson's and Hutchinson's numbers were traded, there wouldn't be this focus on PFF and this downgrading of the common stats.

I'm not trying to say that's the case, I just can't help but think it.
I think it's more that there's just more to it than stats. As I said, stats are data, PFF is data, how able someone is to synthesize that data and extract meaning from it is the difference. (For the record, the Heisman voters suck at it IMHO.)

Look at another DE:

39 tackles, 11 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 4 passes defensed, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, one defensive TD

Those stats aren't all that gaudy at all. 

That guy is George Karlaftis. He's largely seen as the 3rd-best DE in the draft and was a goddamn wrecking crew for the Boilers this year. He swallowed up blockers and disrupted things, but he was often double-teamed or double-teamed AND chipped by an additional blocker, which allowed his teammates to record the stats. He was first-team all-conference, behind only Hutchinson, despite having stats NOWHERE near Hutchinson.

PFF captures that (he's VERY high in PFF grading), whereas traditional stats don't. 

rolltidefan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #236 on: December 20, 2021, 12:21:09 PM »
Which player was a down lineman fending off on coming heiffers and which could free lance and pick his spots.Anderson absolutely is impressive but to compare an LB with a DL not only on different teams but different  leagues isn't apples/oranges - reality exists.I would draft according to need
tell me you didn't watch bama play this season without saying you didn't watch bama play this season.

anderson is "lb" in title only. he's at line of scrimage 100% of plays and hand in dirt 80%+ of plays.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #237 on: December 20, 2021, 12:29:12 PM »


That guy is George Karlaftis. He's largely seen as the 3rd-best DE in the draft and was a goddamn wrecking crew for the Boilers this year. He swallowed up blockers and disrupted things, but he was often double-teamed or double-teamed AND chipped by an additional blocker, which allowed his teammates to record the stats. He was first-team all-conference, behind only Hutchinson, despite having stats NOWHERE near Hutchinson.

PFF captures that (he's VERY high in PFF grading), whereas traditional stats don't.

Right, and I think people who watch the games know about these guys - again, it's the Shawn Springs thing.  I guess I always cite him because the mid-late 90s was the peak of my obsession with college football and he was an All-American caliber CB with no INTS.

I don't know if I'm being painted as the "only the traditional stats matter" guy or not, because that would be false.  But when I see 2 pass-rushers compared to each other and one has nearly DOUBLE the TFL.....I'm not going to just ignore that, lol.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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