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Topic: 2021 Awards Season

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Mdot21

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2021, 10:39:53 AM »
I agree, Shawn Springs was a great player.  Where did I say otherwise?

So people talk about pressures more because defensive coaches want to pressure the QB?  Okay.  Do me a favor - poll the top 100 DCs in the game and ask them if they'd rather have a pressure or a sack.

I'll hang up and listen.
pressures make QBs hurry throws and make mistakes and they are often also converted into sacks for other players on the defense if the guy making the pressure doesn't get home on the sack. 

I remember one year PFF had former Michigan DE Brandon Graham rated as the #1 edge rusher in the NFL and he only had about 6 sacks or something like that- but his pressure rate per snaps played was through the roof- it was by far #1 in the NFL by a ridiculous margin. PFF had him rated as a top 10 player in the league that year, based largely on that and his run defense grade.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #71 on: December 12, 2021, 10:40:38 AM »
I don't recall criticizing the guy who won the award this year.
But I guess you know me really well.
I didn’t write that you criticized anyone who won the award. 

And within the context of CFB opinions, I do. I have only been reading them for like a decade.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #72 on: December 12, 2021, 10:47:28 AM »
Exactly. Defensive stats and how a defensive player actually effects a game are two completely different things. And what a defensive player is able to do depends highly on who else is on that unit.

George Karlaftis didn't have a Heisman-worth statistical season by far... Because teams were double- and triple-teaming him on passing downs and were so terrified of him that they did everything they could to scheme and block him out of the game. They were able to do this because Purdue didn't have anyone else on that defense that was so disruptive.

Go back a few years and I think it was the tandem of Ryan Kerrigan who had a great junior season, but his senior season when Kawaan Short really became a dominant force at DT that it opened Kerrigan up and he started recording eye-popping defensive stats because the defense couldn't focus on him as the sole threat.

Michigan was an embarrassment of riches on the DL this year, so teams couldn't just scheme or double+ Hutchison out of the game. Alabama is an embarrassment of riches at every position every year, so they get the same thing. No way you can design your offense around avoiding Anderson because if he's the guy who EA Sports rates a 99, everyone else on that defense is 94-97 so it's not like you can pick that poison.
If you're tasking voters with seeing the game within the game, I'm afraid you're going to be left disappointed.
Mostly they look at 2 sets of data and point to one, thinking, "more = better."  Except when it comes to Aidan Hutchinson.  

I know this will get shot down in 4 seconds but the resurgent Wolverines, lacking a big-time QB, being led by a white legacy is too much to pass up.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #73 on: December 12, 2021, 10:48:56 AM »
pressures make QBs hurry throws and make mistakes and they are often also converted into sacks for other players on the defense if the guy making the pressure doesn't get home on the sack.

I remember one year PFF had former Michigan DE Brandon Graham rated as the #1 edge rusher in the NFL and he only had about 6 sacks or something like that- but his pressure rate per snaps played was through the roof- it was by far #1 in the NFL by a ridiculous margin. PFF had him rated as a top 10 player in the league that year, based largely on that and his run defense grade.
PFF has Jameson Williams as the 45th-best WR.  
When did PFF become the authority on anything?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #74 on: December 12, 2021, 10:50:09 AM »
pressures make QBs hurry throws and make mistakes and they are often also converted into sacks for other players on the defense if the guy making the pressure doesn't get home on the sack.

I remember one year PFF had former Michigan DE Brandon Graham rated as the #1 edge rusher in the NFL and he only had about 6 sacks or something like that- but his pressure rate per snaps played was through the roof- it was by far #1 in the NFL by a ridiculous margin. PFF had him rated as a top 10 player in the league that year, based largely on that and his run defense grade.
This has nothing to do with whether a DC would rather have a pressure over a sack.  But thanks.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #75 on: December 12, 2021, 11:01:35 AM »
This is comical, I don't know why PFF has become a go-to citation lately...look at this:
VA Tech allegedly has 3 of the top 5 interior defenders in the country. 
Rush yards allowed per game:  87th
Rush yards allowed per carry:  83rd
.
LMFAO
.
UNC, same thing....3 of the top 8 interior defenders.....
Rush yards allowed per game:  93rd
Rush yards allowed per carry:  92nd
.
Boy, those must be some interesting schemes they're running, to be a sieve like that WHILE HAVING THEIR INTERIOR DEFENDERS GRADING OUT SO HIGH.

I know, maybe when they screwed up, they orchestrated it so they'd all screw up on the same plays, right?  
I'm afraid PFF is a joke of a site with a helluva webmaster and lost of content where you can, indeed, pick and choose whatever invented stat you want to support your point.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #76 on: December 12, 2021, 11:07:54 AM »
Exactly. Defensive stats and how a defensive player actually effects a game are two completely different things. And what a defensive player is able to do depends highly on who else is on that unit.

George Karlaftis didn't have a Heisman-worth statistical season by far... Because teams were double- and triple-teaming him on passing downs and were so terrified of him that they did everything they could to scheme and block him out of the game. They were able to do this because Purdue didn't have anyone else on that defense that was so disruptive.

Go back a few years and I think it was the tandem of Ryan Kerrigan who had a great junior season, but his senior season when Kawaan Short really became a dominant force at DT that it opened Kerrigan up and he started recording eye-popping defensive stats because the defense couldn't focus on him as the sole threat.

Michigan was an embarrassment of riches on the DL this year, so teams couldn't just scheme or double+ Hutchison out of the game. Alabama is an embarrassment of riches at every position every year, so they get the same thing. No way you can design your offense around avoiding Anderson because if he's the guy who EA Sports rates a 99, everyone else on that defense is 94-97 so it's not like you can pick that poison.
So, I think this starts at an interesting place, and then kind of wanders us into a jungle of narrative. 

The idea that stats don't always tell the story is true. but I think some weight has to be put on doing the thing. It's kind of murky. We can say Karlaftis affected the game by making life easier on teammates (he did!), but in the end, fewer blockers blocked players you're asserting are worse and Purdue had a ho-hum pass rush in terms of getting to the QB. And if you have better stats, you can see that Karlaftis piled up pressures, and Purdue was good at pressuring QBs. And then it gets even more theoretical when you think, if he's a game wrecker (yes) for a defense that's better than it should be (yes), but many of the teammates he's opening up are not producing more in terms of the things missing from his statistical resume (sacks and TFL), where does that leave us? And that's not to detract. Kid is a game-wrecker, and perhaps going forward, we'll get better double/triple/chip numbers. 

Then we get into a set of narratives. There's the argument that Hutchinson and Anderson aren't getting schemed or doubled. This might be true, but it feels more like sketching in the lines of what we think. Without watching a ton of Bama and Michigan really closely, it's more just a guess (maybe you're doing that, but you seems to be leading a life interesting enough that you're not, which is better, frankly). Maybe those dudes were just on one this year, and are putting up stats despite a decent amount of doubles, though still less than Karlaftis.

I'm thinking you having the timing wrong on Kerrigan. His junior numbers were highly excellent. Better sack numbers than his senior year, and plenty good TFL numbers. Are you thinking of his sophomore year, where he was also very good, but less statistically excellent? (Also, holy hell, the defensive linemen in the conference those years. I'm unsurprised that anyone got lost those years or had a delay in recognition. Just stacked)

FearlessF

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #77 on: December 12, 2021, 12:00:34 PM »
in the same way that Cincy doesn't like lists, they are simply someone's opinion

awards are just a collective opinion of a few voters

also, the media screws up sports just as badly as any topic including COVID or Global Warming

the awards really aren't important unless the fan base gets to brag about it

what is important in a monetary way is NFL draft selection - and even with all that money on the line - the GM screw it up
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MrNubbz

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #78 on: December 12, 2021, 12:29:41 PM »
Because it's easy to just watch the games. Mainstream defensive stats have always been goofy. It's like pass breakups for defensive backs. Is that supposed to be a good thing?
I'd imagine yes,you were mentioning Shawn Springs,who prolly didn't have the same numbes as others because they didn't look his way as much.Maybe because of "pass break ups"
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #79 on: December 12, 2021, 12:35:24 PM »
I'd imagine yes,you were mentioning Shawn Springs,who prolly didn't have the same numbes as others because they didn't look his way as much.Maybe because of "pass break ups"
The more I look at it, the more I think about the Springs story we always hear being a narrative of its era. 

He had six picks the year before, four pass break ups. He had 15 break ups that year. He was probably a beast both years, but someone had to explain to really unsophisticated voters why the lack of picks didn't matter. (We're still bad now, but more sophisticated, I think)

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #80 on: December 12, 2021, 12:42:59 PM »
So, I think this starts at an interesting place, and then kind of wanders us into a jungle of narrative.

The idea that stats don't always tell the story is true. but I think some weight has to be put on doing the thing. It's kind of murky. We can say Karlaftis affected the game by making life easier on teammates (he did!), but in the end, fewer blockers blocked players you're asserting are worse and Purdue had a ho-hum pass rush in terms of getting to the QB. And if you have better stats, you can see that Karlaftis piled up pressures, and Purdue was good at pressuring QBs. And then it gets even more theoretical when you think, if he's a game wrecker (yes) for a defense that's better than it should be (yes), but many of the teammates he's opening up are not producing more in terms of the things missing from his statistical resume (sacks and TFL), where does that leave us? And that's not to detract. Kid is a game-wrecker, and perhaps going forward, we'll get better double/triple/chip numbers.

Then we get into a set of narratives. There's the argument that Hutchinson and Anderson aren't getting schemed or doubled. This might be true, but it feels more like sketching in the lines of what we think. Without watching a ton of Bama and Michigan really closely, it's more just a guess (maybe you're doing that, but you seems to be leading a life interesting enough that you're not, which is better, frankly). Maybe those dudes were just on one this year, and are putting up stats despite a decent amount of doubles, though still less than Karlaftis.

I'm thinking you having the timing wrong on Kerrigan. His junior numbers were highly excellent. Better sack numbers than his senior year, and plenty good TFL numbers. Are you thinking of his sophomore year, where he was also very good, but less statistically excellent? (Also, holy hell, the defensive linemen in the conference those years. I'm unsurprised that anyone got lost those years or had a delay in recognition. Just stacked)

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say that Karlaftis should have been anywhere near the Heisman discussion. I was just using him as an example, similar to the Shawn Springs example, of someone who affects a game in a very significant way but it doesn't always show up on the stat sheet. 

Re: Kerrigan, I got it a little wrong. He had amazing numbers in both the 2009 (junior) and 2010 (senior) season. Short did not play in 2008, was a true soph in 2009, and junior in 2010. While Short didn't have a crazy statistical season in 2009, he did well in 2010 with 6 sacks and 12.5 TFL of his own. I do think that Kerrigan absolutely had things open up for him once offenses had to account for Short. And both had long and productive careers on Sundays, so it's not like it was Kerrigan taking all the attention that allowed Short to produce stats either. It was having two NFL caliber players on the defensive line that allowed both of them to produce. 

I'll be honest that I haven't watched a lot of Bama or Michigan. That said, it's not only difficult to compare DE and LB stats head-to-head because of the different position, it's also difficult to do so because of scheme. My point was more that it's beyond just a simple decision of "pick the guy with the higher number" when not all statistics are created equal. 

MrNubbz

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #81 on: December 12, 2021, 12:52:46 PM »
but we talking purely shiniest of shiny helmets- that might be an ND v Michigan debate.
There were articles from Forbes,Wall Street Journal and dozens of others with Opinions and placements all over the place.Much depends on the season.Not based on who may have racked up the most wins since WWII and before
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/what-valuable-college-football-programs

This from July 2021 WSJ but it's behind a paywall.So many different takes and not just a ND vs UM debate

1)Texas

2)tOSU

3)Alabama

4)Michigan
5)ND

Power 5 -- Top 15 (from 2018)

1. Texas -- $156 million
2. Georgia -- $123 million
3. Michigan -- $122 million
4. Notre Dame -- $116 million
5. Ohio State -- $115 million
6. Penn State -- $100 million
7. Auburn -- $95 million
8. Oklahoma -- $94.8 million
9. Alabama -- $94.6 million
10. Nebraska -- $94.3 million

Another one had
1)Texas
2)Georgia
3)Michigan
4) tOSU
5)Bama


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MrNubbz

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #82 on: December 12, 2021, 12:58:23 PM »
Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say that Karlaftis should have been anywhere near the Heisman discussion. I was just using him as an example, similar to the Shawn Springs example, of someone who affects a game in a very significant way but it doesn't always show up on the stat sheet.
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

FearlessF

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Re: 2021 Awards Season
« Reply #83 on: December 12, 2021, 12:58:36 PM »
it's just a list
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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