2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Wisconsin is a state--a culture--with a chip on its shoulder. It's the underdog in the Midwest, behind Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. It's not as big, as wealthy, etc. That's built into its sports culture. The UW athletic department is actually a pretty good encapsulation of it--while the state is sports mad, it's also comfortable in its role as an underdog. Sure, they want to win championships, but they also love their identity as a scrappy bunch (and they haven't succeeded when they've tried to make it as blue-chippers).

Ohio is not the underdog. Neither is Michigan. (We'll leave Chicago--I mean Illinois--out of this for now). The cultural identity of those states and the flagship state universities is to be the big kid on the block. Period. So yeah, Wisconsin might make a run in the tournament because it is really good at winning close games, or it might lose early because it doesn't really have the talent that the highest tier teams seems to. And we Badgers will be annoyed if we don't make the Sweet 16, but not overly surprised, and we'll still love this scrappy, picked-to-finish-10th team. And who knows--maybe these Badgers will win those close games and head deep into the tournament--at this point, should that really surprise anyone?

And the Ohio State and Michigan fans will continue to be frustrated every time Wisconsin finishes higher because that's not the natural order of things (if you're from Ohio/Ohio State or Michigan/Big Blue). So a coach who consistently has top-20 finishes won't be good enough, if Wisconsin is still winning conference titles, and UM/OSU isn't.

To the extent that this is an answer to my running debate with @MaximumSam , I'm not quite that arrogant wrt BB.  Yes, in FB I am a fan who will "continue to be frustrated every time Wisconsin finishes higher because that is not the natural order of things."  That isn't a dig at Wisconsin, I feel that way wrt all the other programs including Michigan because I view my school as second to none in football.  In FB I EXPECT my school to win the league title around half the time and be right in the thick of the race most of the other half.  This is altered a little with the advent of the CG but not much. 

In BB I don't "expect" to be better than Wisconsin per se.  What I expect is to be at Ohio State's long-term baseline which is to win the league title roughly every five years, go to the Tourney a lot more years than not, and make a run in the Tourney every few years.  I'd love to see my school as the best BB program in the league but I don't expect it.  What I do expect is to be one of the best in the league and right now I don't think we are.  Right now I'd rank the BB programs in the B1G as something like:

• MSU
• UW
• PU (#2 is really close between PU/UW)
• M
• IU
• UMD

Ohio State is at best #7.  That isn't good enough from my perspective but I'll concede that Max has a point in that it isn't bad.  The BB program is pretty good and could be worse but I feel that they are behind their long-term baseline which is why Wisconsin just caught tOSU in league titles at 20.  Note also that when tOSU won their most recent BB title in 2012, Wisconsin had 17.  In the 10 seasons since UW has three and Ohio State has none. 

I don't feel that tOSU is underperforming because UW won the title and tOSU didn't THIS YEAR.  I feel that tOSU is underperforming because in the last ten years UW has three titles and tOSU has none.  League titles since 2012:

• 3 Wisconsin, Michigan State
• 2 Indiana, Michigan, Purdue
• 1 Maryland

This league started doing BB in 1906 but Ohio State didn't join for a few years after that.  The Buckeyes won their first league title in 1925 which was 12 years after joining.  The gaps between titles have been:

• 19 years, 1972-1990
• 13 years, 1993-2005
• 12 years, 1913-1924
• 10 years, 2013-2022
• 9 years, 1951-1959
• 7 years, 1926-1932
• 5 years, 1934-1938, 1940-1944
• 3 years, 1947-1949, 1965-1967
• 2 years, 1969-1970, 2008-2009
• 1 year, 1945

Ohio State's current title drought is their fourth longest ever.  One of the longer ones was their first 12 years in the league so I kinda discount that.  The other two took up most of the time from 1972-2005 which was just a generally dark time in Ohio State BB. 

This drought is getting bad and I don't see any end in sight.  I don't see discernable improvement. 

To his defense, Holtmann obviously is NOT responsible for all of the current drought.  It started while he was coaching at Gardner-Webb and continued while he was coaching Butler.  That said, five of these ten years are on his watch.  That needs to end. 

I agree with Max that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck) involved in winning a league title in any particular year but my view is that the randomness/luck balances out over time.  If you field a league title caliber team THIS year you might not win the title THIS year but if you consistently field league title caliber teams, you will eventually win some titles.  If I were tOSU's AD, I would need to see those titles and soon. 

I'll concede in advance that I AM cherry-picking years.  Ohio State won three-straight titles from 2010-2012 and five of seven from 2006-2012 but I'm not purely cherry-picking, I'm talking about the current ten years.  If you go back to 2006, Ohio State looks fine.  League titles since 2006:

• 6 Michigan State
• 5 Ohio State
• 4 Wisconsin
• 3 Purdue, Michigan
• 2 Indiana
• 1 Maryland

[ELA]

I would put OSU comfortably ahead of Maryland and Indiana

[medinabuckeye1]

On @MaximumSam 's "randomness":
If you look at the 2017-2018 season when tOSU finished one game out of first:

• The Buckeyes lost to PSU at home by one possession
• The Spartans beat Rutgers at home in OT
• The Spartans beat IU on the road by one possession
• The Spartans beat Iowa on the road by one possession
• The Spartans beat Purdue at home by one possession

If any one of those five games had gone the other way the Buckeyes would have tied the Spartans for the league title (and won the tie based on winning the only H2H game).  

That is the luck/randomness involved in CBB specifically and sports generally.  

However, in the four seasons since the Buckeyes have finished:

• 8 games out of first in 2019
• 3.5 games out of first in 2021
• At least 3 games out of first in 2022
• 3 games out of first in 2020

That isn't, IMHO, within the margin of "luck/randomness".  That is just not being good enough.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I would put OSU comfortably ahead of Maryland and Indiana

Curious, do you agree with my list otherwise:

Right now I'd rank the BB programs in the B1G as something like:

• MSU
• UW
• PU (#2 is really close between PU/UW)
• M
• IU
• UMD

So are saying that your list would be:

• MSU
• UW
• PU
• M
• tOSU
• IU
• UMD

[ELA]

I think the top 5 are all evenish.  They could vary somewhat year to year, but I wouldn't put any one of them above the other confidently.  And I certainly wouldn't put IU or Maryland close to them.

And Fran has finished between 3rd and 6th in the Big Ten in 9 of the past 10 years, so it's hard for me to just say they are 8th.  Indiana has only finished higher than 6th once in the past 9 years.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think the top 5 are all evenish.  They could vary somewhat year to year, but I wouldn't put any one of them above the other confidently.  And I certainly wouldn't put IU or Maryland close to them.

And Fran has finished between 3rd and 6th in the Big Ten in 9 of the past 10 years, so it's hard for me to just say they are 8th.  Indiana has only finished higher than 6th once in the past 9 years.

I think you are either sandbagging or being overly modest here.  Michigan State is in the midst of a rare second consecutive off year but even that has them as a tournament team.  They also won three straight league titles right before these last two years.  IMHO, MSU is a clear and obvious #1.  

After that I think UW/PU is debatable for #2/3.  

I think you make a good point about Iowa and I should have included them so after UW/PU I think your next tier is M, tOSU, IU, UMD, and Iowa.  There are arguments for or against each of those but I think that is the next group.  

[ELA]

Looks like Indiana is missing another tourney

[medinabuckeye1]

Looks like Indiana is missing another tourney

You could have won a lot of bets by betting six weeks ago that Rutgers would end up better off for the tournament than Indiana.

[847badgerfan]

Outright championships in the past 20 seasons:

3: Ohio State and Wisconsin
2: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State
1: Purdue

Wisconsin will most likely have 4 soon. 

Purdue and Wisconsin are not the same.

[ELA]

I think you are either sandbagging or being overly modest here.  Michigan State is in the midst of a rare second consecutive off year but even that has them as a tournament team.  They also won three straight league titles right before these last two years.  IMHO, MSU is a clear and obvious #1. 

After that I think UW/PU is debatable for #2/3. 

I think you make a good point about Iowa and I should have included them so after UW/PU I think your next tier is M, tOSU, IU, UMD, and Iowa.  There are arguments for or against each of those but I think that is the next group. 

Izzo has had three separate crazy 3-4 season runs.

98-01: 4 straight Big Ten titles, 3 Final 4s, 2 BTT titles
09-12: 3 Big Ten titles in 4 years, 2 Final 4s, 1 BTT title
18-20: 3 straight Big Ten titles, 1 Final 4, (was the Vegas favorite to win the title in the COVID year), 1 BTT title (was the #1 seed in the COVID year)

The big thing is that each of those "lulls" included a Final 4 run, so you sort of forget they had a 7 year run without a Big Ten title, and a 5 year run.  Granted the 2016 Big Ten title Indiana won was the most scheduled Big Ten title I've ever seen

But it's all been Izzo.  Wisconsin is now on coach 3.  Their program has proven able to weather transition.  MSU's hasn't had to yet.

[847badgerfan]

Judd was also a very good coach, but Izzo took it to the next level.

Judd probably would not have survived this run in today's environment:

[847badgerfan]

Rat face at it again.

[ELA]

Rat face at it again.

As much as I hate Duke, Davis clarified that.  Every team in the discussion for a #1 seed is asked what region they prefer.  That's not the story, the story is that he picked one with a personal connection, rather than the one that would be closer.

[847badgerfan]

They should not be getting a 1 seed.