2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[MaximumSam]

Injuries are a factor, but we are talking about a home loss to a team that might be the worst team in B1G BB history.

The story is that, whatever the reason/excuse this is what we get EVERY year from Holtman:

• A finish outside the top-4 in the B1G
• Not a serious contender for the B1G title
• Tournament performances that leave us jealous of Purdue.

The exception is his first year, with Matta's guys.

As an Ohio State fan I feel that Holtman is basically the worst-case-scenario coach because he isn't good enough but at the same time he isn't bad enough to fire so we are never going to improve.

Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years. I totally disagree, btw - I think two many Buckeye fans treat basketball like football, where they just expect to get the best guys and dominate and that's that. That ain't basketball. Look at where Izzo is this year. Or Michigan. The B1G is a meat grinder and close to a random number generator. Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Five of Purdue's six losses have been by one possession.

Nearly all, if not all, have come down to the opponent hitting a last second shot to take the lead.

[ELA]

Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years.

Scott Drew also took over a school that was coming off a murder of one player by another, covered up by the coach; that even in the best of times, had only made the tournament one time in the prior 53 years, and hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1950.

Like I said, I think he's a good coach, he just hasn't lived up to the lofty standards I set.  After that first year, I said I thought he was going to OSU back to peak Matta very soon, and for as long as he wanted

[JWilly86]

Big Ten or National?

I don't have a lot to back this up it's just based on my feel watching the games, I think Davis will be at a minimum B10 POY, probably also nationally, but I wonder if his draft stock is sliding.

Games like Rutgers and some of these late season games where teams are rolling more pressure to him he's really having to grind out his stats. I'm not convinced he will be able to get his own shot in the league and he may be a late lottery pick instead of an early one.

[JWilly86]

I love this Wisconsin team. Mostly because I don't totally expect them to do any of these things, and I don't expect it to continue and it just keeps doing so.

They have no bench star power, just five starters who are all in their zone. Three are gonna be back next year. No idea how BTT or the dance go, but they hang that banner with what turned over and what didn't come together, just right the hell up there.

Agreed, I don't really have great post-season expectations, but that's part of the fun with this team, just enjoy the good times.

I also don't miss any UW games (obviously) or Providence games b/c I know I'm getting a great game with some last minute fun.

[ELA]

Five of Purdue's six losses have been by one possession.

Nearly all, if not all, have come down to the opponent hitting a last second shot to take the lead.

As we discussed last week, you do not want to get caught in a close game against Wisconsin. I'm rooting for a Wisconsin-Providence Sweet 16 OT game, because those have to be the two fan bases that would just be ultimately comfortable in that scenario

[ELA]

I don't have a lot to back this up it's just based on my feel watching the games, I think Davis will be at a minimum B10 POY, probably also nationally, but I wonder if his draft stock is sliding.

Games like Rutgers and some of these late season games where teams are rolling more pressure to him he's really having to grind out his stats. I'm not convinced he will be able to get his own shot in the league and he may be a late lottery pick instead of an early one.

I think Tsheiebwe is a near lock for national

[MaximumSam]

Scott Drew also took over a school that was coming off a murder of one player by another, covered up by the coach; that even in the best of times, had only made the tournament one time in the prior 53 years, and hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1950.

Like I said, I think he's a good coach, he just hasn't lived up to the lofty standards I set.  After that first year, I said I thought he was going to OSU back to peak Matta very soon, and for as long as he wanted

Doesn't help that they cancelled the tourney when he had his best team

[medinabuckeye1]

Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years. I totally disagree, btw - I think two many Buckeye fans treat basketball like football, where they just expect to get the best guys and dominate and that's that. That ain't basketball. Look at where Izzo is this year. Or Michigan. The B1G is a meat grinder and close to a random number generator. Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year.

First let me say that I'm not in the category as you described that thinks tOSU should get the best guys and dominate.  Ohio State doesn't have nearly the long-term history in BB that the Buckeyes have in Football so I don't expect to be a NC contender every year (my expectations aren't QUITE that high even in FB). 

That said, Ohio State has a pretty good BB history.  Within the B1G the Buckeyes are:

• #3 in league titles with 20 behind PU with 24 and IU with 22.  We are about to drop into a tie with UW for 3rd as they are winning it this year and we aren't. 
• #5 in NCAA appearances with 30. 
• Tied for 4th/5th in S16 appearances with 14.  Tied with UMD, behind IU (22), MSU (20), M (16). 
• Tied with MSU for most F4's with 10.  IU is next with 8. 
• Tied for 3rd/4th/5th/6th in NC's with 1.  Tied with M, UW, and UMD behind IU (5) and MSU (2). 

Looking at those categories the Buckeyes average rank in the B1G is 3.7 and that is roughly what I expect.  I expect the Buckeyes to be maybe not the best program in the B1G but not too far off from it.  That isn't what we are getting. 

Holtmann's first year was great.  He took players that Matta frankly wasn't getting much out of and finished one game out of first place in the B1G.  The team underperformed in the BTT with a loss in their opener as the #2 seed against #7 but no big deal.  Then in the NCAA the team performed to seed with a win in a 5/12 game as a #5 seed then a loss to #4.  Ok, looks good.  Then:

• Tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, 8 games out of first.  1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA (Upset win as #11 then loss to #3). 
• Tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in B1G, 3 games out of first.  No BTT or NCAA due to COVID. 
• Fifth in the B1G, 3.5 games out of first.  3-1 in BTT, 0-1 in NCAA with an embarrassing loss as a #2 seed to #15. 
• Currently tied for 4th/5th in the B1G, 3.5 games out of first. 

Let me put this another way:
According to this article, Holtmann is the 24th highest paid coach in the nation at just under $3 Million/year.  Tom Izzo is #6 at just under $4 Million/year. 

If I were tOSU's AD I'd be perfectly happy to pay $4 Million (or more) for a NC level coach but I would NOT be happy paying $3 Million/year for a coach who has finished w/in <3 games of the league title once in five years and has NEVER gotten to the second weekend in the NCAA tournament.  That just isn't good enough and at this point tOSU would be better off rolling the dice on a new coach.  If the new coach is better great.  If not, fire him and try again.  Holtmann is not good enough and he is not showing discernable improvement. 

[MaximumSam]

If I were tOSU's AD I'd be perfectly happy to pay $4 Million (or more) for a NC level coach but I would NOT be happy paying $3 Million/year for a coach who has finished w/in <3 games of the league title once in five years and has NEVER gotten to the second weekend in the NCAA tournament.  That just isn't good enough and at this point tOSU would be better off rolling the dice on a new coach.  If the new coach is better great.  If not, fire him and try again.  Holtmann is not good enough and he is not showing discernable improvement. 

This is where I disagree. His KenPom seasons are:

2018: 16th
2019: 44
2020: 8
2021: 11
2022: 26 currently

You are basically wanting to dump a coach who has fielded a top 16 team in three of his five seasons, and the ones that weren't either had huge attrition in 2019 or a ton of injuries which is this year. I think getting rid of a coach like that would be bonkers.

[medinabuckeye1]

Look at where Izzo is this year. 

I want to address this more directly:
Ok, but lets not just look at one year.  As I said above, I don't expect to be a NC contender EVERY year.  Here is what Izzo has done in the time that Holtmann has been in Columbus:

• 2018:  When tOSU finished one game out of first, MSU WAS first.  
• 2019:  When tOSU finished EIGHT games out of first, MSU WAS first.  
• 2020:  When tOSU finished three games out of first, MSU WAS first.  
• 2021:  MSU finished three games behind tOSU (6.5 out of first).  
• 2022:  MSU is currently one game behind tOSU (4.5 out of first).  

I get having a rough season or two now and then but MSU has still won three league titles in the last five years.  Ohio State hasn't won one since 2012 and if you go back far enough to capture three for the Buckeyes you are at 2010-present during which time MSU has won five.  

No league titles in five years.  

Only finished within <2 games of league title once in five years and that was in year #1 with previous coach's recruits.  

No trips to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  

No discernable improvement.  

I'm ready to give someone else a shot.  

Or Michigan.

Same deal here.  Sure, Michigan isn't good this year but they won the league title last year.  They also made the NCAA CG in Holtmann's first year, the S16 in 2019, and the E8 last year.  Holtmann's next S16 will be his first with the Buckeyes and his next E8 will be his first.  

So sure, Michigan looks worse than tOSU this year (and I'm not sure how I'd feel about Howard's performance if I were a M fan) but they have done a LOT more in the last five years than tOSU has.  It isn't close.  

Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year.

I'm kinda with you on this.  I think a lot of us suspect that UW is maybe just lucky.  The computers have them right about at Ohio State's level but here they are, 3.5 games ahead of the Buckeyes in the standings.  I'll go back to a longer term view.  When is tOSU going to have a "lucky" year and win a league title?  How long are you willing to wait?  

2022 is Wisconsin's second B1G title since Holtmann has been in Columbus.  Ohio State has the resources and brand to be as good as Wisconsin.  We aren't and that is a problem.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This is where I disagree. His KenPom seasons are:

2018: 16th
2019: 44
2020: 8
2021: 11
2022: 26 currently

You are basically wanting to dump a coach who has fielded a top 16 team in three of his five seasons, and the ones that weren't either had huge attrition in 2019 or a ton of injuries which is this year. I think getting rid of a coach like that would be bonkers.

As a fan, yes.  If I were AD, not really.  

If I were AD I'd look at this and say "Ok, Holtmann is on a short leash."  I wouldn't extend him or give him any raises and if someone else made him an offer and he came to me to see if I'd match it, I'd wish him good luck at his new school.  

I said way upthread that from this fan's perspective Holtmann is almost the worst case scenario of a coach because he is in between.  He isn't what I want/expect but he really isn't bad enough to fire either.  So we are just stuck here figuring on finishing 3-5 games out of the league title every year and maybe if we give him enough attempts he'll actually win a R32 game so we can lose in the S16 instead of the first weekend of the NCAA some year.  

[MaximumSam]

2022 is Wisconsin's second B1G title since Holtmann has been in Columbus.  Ohio State has the resources and brand to be as good as Wisconsin.  We aren't and that is a problem. 

Yeah, but mess around with a good thing and there isn't that much difference between us and Penn State, where we are constantly mediocre. Holtmann recruits well, the players develop well, and the team performs well. That's the boxes I look at, not the random number generator that the B1G and the tourney are. Putting excessive stock in that is a recipe for failure.

[medinabuckeye1]

Yeah, but mess around with a good thing and there isn't that much difference between us and Penn State, where we are constantly mediocre. Holtmann recruits well, the players develop well, and the team performs well. That's the boxes I look at, not the random number generator that the B1G and the tourney are. Putting excessive stock in that is a recipe for failure.

This is where I fundamentally disagree.  There is a HUMONGOUS difference between us and Penn State:

• PSU has NEVER won a league title, we have 20 (five since PSU joined).  
• PSU has nine NCAA appearances all time, we have 30.  
• PSU has four S16's all time, we have 14.  
• PSU has one F4 all time, we have 10.  
• PSU has zero NC's, we have one.  

Ohio State's baseline is VASTLY better than PSU's.  Holtmann is performing only slightly below tOSU's baseline but he IS below tOSU's baseline.  If I were PSU's AD and had a coach performing at Holtmann's level I'd be ecstatic.  If I were tOSU's AD and had a coach performing at Holtmann's level I'd be looking for an exit strategy.  

Ohio State has 20 league titles in roughly 100 years of league play so about one every five years.  This is Holtmann's fifth year and he doesn't have one which means we are falling behind our baseline.  

I get where you are coming from when you refer to the B1G and the tourney as "random number generators" and I agree on a one year basis.  Looking at any given year I agree.  Maybe UW isn't any better than tOSU this year and they are just lucky.  Maybe tOSU's loss to #15 in last years' NCAA was just unlucky.  There I agree.  However, when you look at it over three, four, or five years that "random number generator" need to be spitting out acceptable results.  

Losing as a #2 seed to #15 would be fine if we also had some nice upsets to offset it but we don't.  Our only Tourney upset win was as #11 over #6.  


Finishing 3-5 games out of first place in the B1G this year despite being (per KenPom) basically as good as the Champion would be fine if it were balanced off by winning the league when we maybe were not the best team but it isn't.  We haven't won the league since 2012 (when current seniors were 10 years old).