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Topic: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1232 on: February 28, 2022, 11:54:31 AM »
Projected finish to the season:

At the far left are the teams' current records then the teams then their game(s) this week and projected result(s), then their game this weekend and projected result then finally projected final standings.  

Handy-dandy tiebreaker chart.  


This reads down not across so looking at the Wisconsin columns, the Badgers are:

  • 0-1 against IL
  • 1-1 against tOSU
  • 2-0 against PU
  • etc
NOTE that this INCLUDES projections for games not yet played.  Ie, UW is NOT 2-0 against PU yet.  They are 1-0 having won in West Lafayette and they are projected to win the home game against PU tomorrow.  



bayareabadger

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1233 on: February 28, 2022, 11:58:05 AM »
I don’t know how it will fall, but let me say that Iowa-Indiana would be a pretty damn strong 8-9 game

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1234 on: February 28, 2022, 12:53:52 PM »
I don’t know how it will fall, but let me say that Iowa-Indiana would be a pretty damn strong 8-9 game
It sure would.  

I think this is related to @bayareabadger 's point above:

The conference race is unusually tight all the way up and down the standings.  Usually at this point in the year I start talking about what BTT seeds have been clinched but right now none of them have been clinched.  Every team in the conference is within +/- 1 game of at least one other team with only two exceptions:
  • 13th place Minnesota is two games down on 11th/12th place UMD/NU and two games up on 14th place Nebraska.  
  • 14th place Nebraska is two games down on 13th place MN



Nonetheless, neither team has clinched a seed yet because:
  • Minnesota could do as well as 6-14 which could be tied with UMD and/or NU and the Gophers would win a tie with the Wildcats.  
  • Conversely the Gophers could do as poorly as 4-16 which could be tied with UNL and the Gophers would lose a tie with the Cornhuskers.  Thus literally none of the BTT seeds are definitively established at this point.  


FearlessF

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1235 on: February 28, 2022, 01:01:42 PM »
the Huskers looked good last night, but they're not going 2-0 in their last games

unless of course their opponents lay down to rest starters
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1236 on: February 28, 2022, 05:01:18 PM »
Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 28 update

NCAA
SOUTH

  • #1 Baylor vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Texas Southern
  • #8 Boise State vs. #9 Marquette
  • #5 ILLINOIS vs. #12 Memphis/Xavier
  • #4 Arkansas vs. #13 Towson
  • #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Furman
  • #6 OHIO STATE vs. #11 San Diego State
  • #7 Murray State vs. #10 San Francisco
  • #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 South Alabama


MIDWEST
  • #1 Kansas vs. #16 Colgate/Nicholls
  • #8 Seton Hall vs. #9 Notre Dame
  • #5 Alabama vs. #12 South Dakota State
  • #4 Houston vs. #13 Iona
  • #3 Villanova vs. #14 Toledo
  • #6 LSU vs. #11 MICHIGAN
  • #7 Iowa State vs. #10 North Texas
  • #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Montana State


EAST
  • #1 Kentucky vs. #16 Norfolk State
  • #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Davidson
  • #5 Providence vs. #12 Miami/SMU
  • #4 Texas vs. #13 Vermont
  • #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Princeton
  • #6 USC vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
  • #7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #10 TCU
  • #2 Duke vs. #15 Liberty

WEST
  • #1 Auburn vs. #16 Oakland
  • #8 Colorado State vs. #9 Wake Forest
  • #5 Connecticut vs. #12 VCU
  • #4 UCLA vs. #13 NM State
  • #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Wagner
  • #6 Saint Mary's vs. #11 INDIANA
  • #7 IOWA vs. #10 Wyoming
  • #2 Arizona vs. #15 UC Irvine

NIT
OMAHA
  • #1 Creighton vs. #8 Alcorn State
  • #4 Virginia vs. #5 Texas A&M
  • #3 Kansas State vs. #6 Richmond
  • #2 Belmont vs. #7 Longwood

BLACKSBURG
  • #1 Virginia Tech vs. #8 New Orleans
  • #4 Chattanooga vs. #5 Saint Louis
  • #3 RUTGERS vs. #6 Texas State
  • #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Jacksonville State


PROVO
  • #1 BYU vs. #8 Cleveland State
  • #4 West Virginia vs. #5 Oregon
  • #3 South Carolina vs. #6 Northern Iowa
  • #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 UNC Wilmington

GAINESVILLE
  • #1 Florida vs. #8 Bryant
  • #4 UAB vs. #5 Colorado
  • #3 Dayton vs. #6 Central Florida
  • #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Long Beach State

Remaining Big Ten Teams
  • Maryland - #2 team out
  • Northwestern - #10 team out
  • Minnesota - #11 team out
  • Penn State - #14 team out
  • Nebraska - n/a

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1237 on: February 28, 2022, 05:07:16 PM »
Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 31 computers
  • Gonzaga (1)
  • Arizona (2)
  • Baylor (5)
  • Kansas (3)
  • Kentucky (4)
  • Duke (8)
  • Auburn (6)
  • PURDUE (7)
  • Houston (12)
  • Tennessee (13)
  • Texas Tech (11)
  • Villanova (9)
  • UCLA (10)
  • Arkansas (16)
  • ILLINOIS (14)
  • Connecticut (15)
  • Texas (17)
  • WISCONSIN (18)
  • Alabama (19)
  • Saint Mary's (22)
  • Providence (-)
  • IOWA (23)
  • OHIO STATE (20)
  • LSU (21)
  • USC (24)



  • 27. Michigan State (25)
  • 34. Michigan (31)
  • 39. Indiana (40)
  • 65. Rutgers (64)
  • 80. Maryland (87)
  • 89. Northwestern (82)
  • 92. Penn State (77)
  • 98. Minnesota (97)
  • 174. Nebraska (188)

SFBadger96

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1238 on: February 28, 2022, 07:31:48 PM »
Late to the party, as usual, but I was at the Wisconsin/Michigan game a week ago (my not close to annual visit to Mad-town) and have spent way too much idle time thinking about it since then.

My take:
(1) On the one hand, it seems like a lot to fire a guy over an outburst of that sort, there's no question that if I did that in my work place, I would be escorted out, forever. Similarly, if I were to do something like that in a handshake line for one of the youth sports teams that I coach, I would never be allowed back. In the *real* world, that's a firing offense.

(2) In the world of professional sports (and we'll just slide B1G MBB and FB into that category without thinking too deeply on it), it's not a firing offense unless there's more going on. At least not the first time. Strange, especially since presumably they are setting the standard for what sports competitions are supposed to look like.

(3) I agree that Gard didn't need to do what he did in the line, but having seen and been in a lot of handshake lines over the years, it's pretty common for someone to want to explain themselves when someone calls them out for something. It's probably not often a good idea, but it's a common response. But it wasn't the *discussion* that led to punches being thrown--it was Howard doing however you want to describe what he did to Krabbenhoft.

(4) I'm fascinated by the efforts to cast blame on the Wisconsin coaching staff, including Krabbenhoft. Once Howard grabbed Gard and the *conversation* escalated (quickly), people from both sides dived in to try to separate them, Krabbenhoft among them. For all the smoke about, "he must have said something," no one--not Howard, not a Michigan assistant, not a Michigan player, not a reporter--nobody has said boo about what Krabbenhoft said. If it were even a little more inflammatory than some version of "break it up," someone would have mentioned it. I think it's clutching at straws for people hoping to generate conflict, generate revenue, clicks, likes, whatever, or defend the honor of the Maize and Blue, but struggling to find ways to do it.

(5) As a student of his era, it was really cool to see Michael Finley's number retired during that game. Finley was part of the core that transformed Wisconsin basketball, giving we alumni a reason to hope that we could aspire to more than making the tournament every few decades. I am surprised it took as long as it did to recognize him as such. I won't forget watching him live--he was incredible. If he had played for teams like the one that Kaminsky played for, his name would have been in the rafters much earlier.

Which brings me to where we are on February 28, with the Badgers likely to end up with at least a share of the B1G regular season title. Pinch me. The sustained success of this program is remarkable, and I'm thrilled that my first trip to Wisconsin in a long time coincided with one of the more comfortable wins, over a marquis opponent, during this wild season.

On Wisconsin.

:-)



ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1239 on: February 28, 2022, 07:53:13 PM »
Late to the party, as usual, but I was at the Wisconsin/Michigan game a week ago (my not close to annual visit to Mad-town) and have spent way too much idle time thinking about it since then.

My take:
(1) On the one hand, it seems like a lot to fire a guy over an outburst of that sort, there's no question that if I did that in my work place, I would be escorted out, forever. Similarly, if I were to do something like that in a handshake line for one of the youth sports teams that I coach, I would never be allowed back. In the *real* world, that's a firing offense.

(2) In the world of professional sports (and we'll just slide B1G MBB and FB into that category without thinking too deeply on it), it's not a firing offense unless there's more going on. At least not the first time. Strange, especially since presumably they are setting the standard for what sports competitions are supposed to look like.

(3) I agree that Gard didn't need to do what he did in the line, but having seen and been in a lot of handshake lines over the years, it's pretty common for someone to want to explain themselves when someone calls them out for something. It's probably not often a good idea, but it's a common response. But it wasn't the *discussion* that led to punches being thrown--it was Howard doing however you want to describe what he did to Krabbenhoft.

(4) I'm fascinated by the efforts to cast blame on the Wisconsin coaching staff, including Krabbenhoft. Once Howard grabbed Gard and the *conversation* escalated (quickly), people from both sides dived in to try to separate them, Krabbenhoft among them. For all the smoke about, "he must have said something," no one--not Howard, not a Michigan assistant, not a Michigan player, not a reporter--nobody has said boo about what Krabbenhoft said. If it were even a little more inflammatory than some version of "break it up," someone would have mentioned it. I think it's clutching at straws for people hoping to generate conflict, generate revenue, clicks, likes, whatever, or defend the honor of the Maize and Blue, but struggling to find ways to do it.

(5) As a student of his era, it was really cool to see Michael Finley's number retired during that game. Finley was part of the core that transformed Wisconsin basketball, giving we alumni a reason to hope that we could aspire to more than making the tournament every few decades. I am surprised it took as long as it did to recognize him as such. I won't forget watching him live--he was incredible. If he had played for teams like the one that Kaminsky played for, his name would have been in the rafters much earlier.

Which brings me to where we are on February 28, with the Badgers likely to end up with at least a share of the B1G regular season title. Pinch me. The sustained success of this program is remarkable, and I'm thrilled that my first trip to Wisconsin in a long time coincided with one of the more comfortable wins, over a marquis opponent, during this wild season.

On Wisconsin.

:-)




847badgerfan

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1240 on: March 01, 2022, 05:59:37 AM »
Excellent post, SF.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1241 on: March 01, 2022, 10:48:35 AM »

Updated remaining season.  

As an Ohio State fan I'm obviously interested in tonight's tOSU/UNL game and I do think that the Cornhuskers have a little bit of a shot.  The Buckeyes have been weird lately.  Vis-a-vis the tiers the Buckeyes have four upsets, two up and two down but the odd thing is that all four have come in the last three weeks.  Prior to that the Buckeyes were remarkably consistent as the B1G's only team with no upsets.  Now all of a sudden, four of the last six tOSU games have resulted in upsets.  Those last six:

  • Great win on the road at Michigan, positive upset.  
  • Home win over Minnesota as expected.  
  • Home loss to Iowa, negative upset.  
  • Home win over Indiana as expected.  
  • Great win on the road at Illinois, positive upset.  
  • Road loss to Maryland, negative upset.  
So now I don't know what to expect from game to game.  

The Purdue/Wisconsin game is THE game for the conference title race.  A Wisconsin win:
  • Mathematically clinches a share of the title for the Badgers and eliminates the Boilermakers, and
  • Practically clinches an outright title for the Badgers and eliminates the Illini as well (because UW's last game is at home against the last place Cornhuskers).  
A Purdue win:
  • Keeps Purdue alive in the league title race, and
  • Keeps Illinois alive in the league title race.  
  • Guarantees that the B1G Champion will have at least five losses.  
For comparison on that last point:
  • 2021's Champion had 3 losses and two teams had 4 or less.  
  • 2020's Champion had 6 losses (three way tie)
  • 2019's Champion had 4 losses (two way tie)
  • 2018's Champion had 2 losses and three teams had 3 or less (on 18 games)
  • 2017's Champion had 4 losses
  • 2016's Champion had 3 losses
  • 2015's Champion had 2 losses and two teams had 4 or less
  • 2014's Champion had 3 losses
  • 2013's Champion had 4 losses
  • 2012's Champion had 5 losses (three-way tie)
Having a Champion with 5+ losses is not unheard of but it is rare and was definitely very rare before the increase to 20 league games.  

In the event of a Purdue win we would project a three-way tie for the league title between Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  Purdue would win the tiebreaker at 3-1 (swept IL, split with UW) while Wisconsin and Illinois would each be 1-2 (Wisconsin split with PU, lost to IL; Illinois beat UW but got swept by PU).  Thus, the 2/3 seed would be determined as between the Illini and Badgers based on record against the next best team(s).  Right now we project that to be Ohio State and UW would win that based on a split with the Buckeyes while Illinois played tOSU only once and lost.  That said, all of RU, IA, MSU, M, and IU have at least a mathematical chance to catch the Buckeyes.  

The other game, Michigan State at Michigan is suddenly VERY interesting.  A few weeks ago the Spartans were well ahead of their instate rivals but the Spartans have faded and the Wolverines have surged.  Now the Spartans are only one game ahead of the Wolverines in the standings and they are both projected to finish 11-9 in a four-way tie for 5th/6th/7th/8th along with the Scarlet Knights and Hawkeyes.  If Michigan State can score a win in Ann Arbor that will change the projections significantly for both teams.  MSU's projection would improve to 12-8 and alone in 5th place while Michigan's would drop to 10-10 and tied with Indiana for 8th/9th.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1242 on: March 01, 2022, 11:19:07 AM »
Lunardi's latest has nine B1G teams in the tournament but Michigan is getting the last bye while Rutgers and Indiana both have to win play-in games to make the 64 team field.  

The teams are:

  • #2 Purdue
  • #3 Wisconsin
  • #4 Illinois
  • #6 Ohio State
  • #7 Iowa, Michigan State
  • #11 Michigan, Indiana (play-in)
  • #12 Rutgers (play-in)

Based on past results by teams with those seeds, they should result in:
  • 5.14 teams in the R32
  • 2.63 teams in the S16
  • 1.20 teams in the E8
  • 0.52 teams in the F4
  • 0.21 teams in the NC
  • 0.09 NC's
I feel like most of our conference is more up-and-down than usual.  Looking at those teams:
  • Purdue:  When they are ON, they are a potential NC.  When they are off, they are not good.  They could go to the F4 or lose their opener.  
  • Wisconsin:  They have a very good record but their slew of close wins I think has everyone questioning just how good they are.  
  • Illinois:  Kofi is a monster but when teams figure out how to handle him, they don't seem to have any viable answers.  
  • Ohio State:  On a good night they can do great things like beat Dook, win at Illinois, win at Michigan, and almost win at Purdue.  On a bad night they can lose to Maryland, Florida (a middling SEC team), or Xavier (a middling BE team).  
  • Iowa:  They have a solid record largely because they have avoided bad losses but their record in high-end games is not good.  They are only 1-5 in Q1 games.  
  • Michigan State:  I'll never count out an Izzo-coached team but this team looks like they are fading fast.  
  • Michigan:  Their ceiling may be as high as Purdue's but they don't seem to be able to play anywhere close to it consistently.  
  • Indiana:  They have a few good wins but still they are 3-6 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2.  
  • Rutgers:  They have five Q1 wins which is great but they have 3 Q3/4 losses which is terrible.  
Honestly any of those teams could make the S16 or lose their opener.  


ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1243 on: March 01, 2022, 07:31:18 PM »
My wallet would appreciate OSU playing just a little bit of defense

MaximumSam

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1244 on: March 01, 2022, 08:40:51 PM »
My wallet would appreciate OSU playing just a little bit of defense
Have pity. We are down 4 of our top 8 guys and have Justin Ahrens guarding Bryce Mcgowens.

ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #1245 on: March 01, 2022, 08:48:27 PM »
I don't think my rush judgment has ever been more wrong than about Chris Holtman's trajectory

 

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