I hesitate to ask this because I feel like this is an Izzo team, I've seen this movie before, and I know how it ends but . . . should we drop MSU a tier?
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is projected result in road games against tier-3 teams, for MSU those are:
- @MN, won 75-67 on 12/8
- @NU, won 73-67 on 1/2
- @UMD, won 65-63 on 2/1
- @PSU, lost 62-58 tonight
- @M, 3/1
They are 3-1 in these games but their negative upsets are:
- Lost at home to NU on 1/15
- Lost at home to UW on 2/8
- Lost at PSU on 2/15
Oddly, I feel like MSU is regressing before our eyes. I assume that Izzo will turn this around but this is very uncharacteristic for an Izzo team. Usually they are fairly pedestrian in December/January and rounding into form about now. Instead this team actually looked surprisingly good early in the year and right now they don't look good at all. In this calendar year the Spartans are 7-5 which isn't bad but the bulk of the wins are decidedly NOT impressive:
- @ NU
- vs UNL
- vs MN
- @ UW
- vs M
- @ UMD
- vs IU
Wisconsin on the road is a great win. Michigan and Indiana at home are good but nothing to write home about. The rest are games that any tournament team should win easily.
The losses aren't very good either:
The IL and RU losses aren't bad. The UW loss is just a trade off for winning there (those wash out). Losing at home to NU and losing to PSU, those are not good.
I don't think we should drop them because they are 3-1 in the relevant games but honestly if we were ranking them right now I don't think I'd include them in tier-1. They look more like RU/IU/IA than PU/IL/UW/tOSU.
