2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

My google-fu is failing me this morning.  Can anyone find a link to a concise list of which teams each B1G team misses Home and which teams each B1G team misses away?  

There are 14 teams so a full double-round-robin would be 26 games (the other 13 teams twice each).  Since we only play 20 games, each team actually plays:

• Three teams home only
• Three teams away only
• Seven teams H/A

I need to know which are which in order to set up the spreadsheet for the predictions.  

Thank you.  

[grillrat]

Looking at where the sort of natural breaks are in KenPom

1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska

I'd say switch UW and UM as of this moment.  While UM has some potential to gel by the time March comes around, they have not done anything to justify being in Tier 2 yet.  They've pretty much been blown out by any team with a pulse that they have played.  Even putting them in tier 3, they already have an "upset" loss to Minnie at home.
I'd also say that Minnesota has the potential to be tier 3.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd say switch UW and UM as of this moment.  While UM has some potential to gel by the time March comes around, they have not done anything to justify being in Tier 2 yet.  They've pretty much been blown out by any team with a pulse that they have played.  Even putting them in tier 3, they already have an "upset" loss to Minnie at home.
I'd also say that Minnesota has the potential to be tier 3.

I'm thinking, for the time being, that we should treat the Gophers' win in Ann Arbor as an aberration but obviously be cognizant that if MN pulls off another unpredicted win or two then they move up and if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down.  

Wisconsin at two or three:
I think three is appropriate for now.  Their games are a home win over IU and a road loss to tOSU which would match the projections regardless but the win over IU was close while the loss to tOSU was a blowout.  If that were reversed I'd be more open to moving them up.  

[medinabuckeye1]

If anybody wants to take this over, I'll gladly share the spreadsheet from prior years which you can then use as a shell to add in this year's schedule and the results thus far to create the predictions. 

Nobody is jumping on this?  LoL.

Apparently not, LoL.  

I'm building the spreadsheet using tiers as proposed by @ELA :

1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska

Based on that, the end of January standings (roughly half way) would be:

• 10-0 Illinois
• 8-3 Purdue
• 7-3 MSU
• 7-3 tOSU
• 7-4 IU
• 6-4 M
• 6-4 UW
• 5-5 IA
• 4-6 NU
• 3-7 UMD
• 3-7 MN
• 3-7 RU
• 2-9 PSU
• 1-10 UNL

Illinois' double-round-robin projection would be 19-7.  One of the seven losses is at Iowa but they won that last week.  The other six are:

• @ PU, 2/10
• @ MSU, 2/19
• @ tOSU, not played
• @ M, 2/27
• @ UW, not played
• @ IU, 2/5

So the 10-0 projection is largely because their schedule is surprisingly back-loaded.  

[847badgerfan]

1. Purdue

2. MSU, Illinois, OSU

3. UW, UM, Iowa

4. Min, IU, NU

5. PSU, RU, UMD

10. UNL

[medinabuckeye1]

Illinois' double-round-robin projection would be 19-7.  One of the seven losses is at Iowa but they won that last week.  The other six are:

• @ PU, 2/10
• @ MSU, 2/19
• @ tOSU, not played
• @ M, 2/27
• @ UW, not played
• @ IU, 2/5

So the 10-0 projection is largely because their schedule is surprisingly back-loaded. 

I just want to take a minute to point something out here.  THIS (above) is why we do the tiers.  

Illinois has three more OOC games and they should win all three to move to 10-3/2-0.  Then they should win all eight league games in January to move to 18-3/10-0.  If the actually do that, they'll be on an 11-game winning streak, highly ranked, and everyone will be talking about how great they are.  Eh . . . not necessarily.  You have to look at opponents and locations not just W's and L's.  If they do manage to get to 18-3/10-0 that is good, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are all that great, it mostly means that their eight league games in January were all predicted wins.  

Also note that there is a flip-side here for Illinois.  If their season goes exactly as projected they'll be 18-3/10-0 at the end of January and all the talking heads will be telling us how great they are but then they'll finish a rather pedestrian 6-4 in the second half of their league season and all the talking heads will be asking what is wrong with the Illini.  Well, nothing changed, they just played tougher opponents on the road.  The same talking heads that will be talking them up at 18-3 will be running them down after the 6-4 finish but they'll be wrong both times.  

[medinabuckeye1]

My google-fu is failing me this morning.  Can anyone find a link to a concise list of which teams each B1G team misses Home and which teams each B1G team misses away? 

There are 14 teams so a full double-round-robin would be 26 games (the other 13 teams twice each).  Since we only play 20 games, each team actually plays:

• Three teams home only
• Three teams away only
• Seven teams H/A

I need to know which are which in order to set up the spreadsheet for the predictions. 

Thank you. 

Still looking, can anyone help me out?  I use it as a double-check for the spreadsheet.  

[grillrat]

 if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down. 

What has Michigan done though to deserve Tier 2 though?  I think it's the other way around.  Michigan should be a 3 and they can move up if they have a surprise win or two.

[medinabuckeye1]

Still looking, can anyone help me out?  I use it as a double-check for the spreadsheet. 

Nevermind, found it:


https://bigten.org/news/2021/5/13/2021-22-big-ten-mens-basketball-conference-opponent-breakdown.aspx

[medinabuckeye1]

What has Michigan done though to deserve Tier 2 though?  I think it's the other way around.  Michigan should be a 3 and they can move up if they have a surprise win or two.

Basically my answer is that I already set up the spreadsheet and I really don't want to change it until we are more certain.  

[847badgerfan]

If they are cheating, they really suck at it.

[FearlessF]

well, at least they were trying

wasn't helping much

probably going to be done soon anyway due to lack of wins

[MaximumSam]

Basically my answer is that I already set up the spreadsheet and I really don't want to change it until we are more certain. 

Inertia - the most powerful force in the galaxy.

Anyways, Michigan is a tough nut to crack. They did have a strong win over San Diego State, and looked great against Nebraska, but also looked pretty bad in a few other games. That said, they have a lot of potential to improve compared to other teams, as well.

[medinabuckeye1]

Projected standings heading into the final weekend:

• 15-4:  PU (vsIU), IL (vsIA)
• 14-5:  MSU (vsUMD), tOSU (vsM)
• 12-7:  M (@tOSU)
• 11-8:  IA (@IL), IU (@PU)
• 10-9:  UW (vsUNL)
• 8-11:  MN (@NU), NU (vsMN)
• 7-12:  UMD (@MSU)
• 4-15:  PSU (@RU)
• 3-16:  RU (vsPSU)
• 1-18:  UNL (@UW)

Thus, the projected final standings are:

• 16-4 Illinois (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against tOSU&MSU)
• 16-4 Purdue
• 15-5 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
• 15-5 Michigan State
• 12-8 Michigan
• 11-9 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over IA and IU based on H2H2H)
• 11-9 Iowa (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with UW and IU)
• 11-9 Indiana (loses tiebreaker with UW and IA based on H2H2H)
• 9-11 Northwestern
• 8-12 Minnesota
• 7-13 Maryland
• 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over PSU based on record against PU)
• 4-16 Penn State
• 1-19 Nebraska

Thus the B1G Tournament match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 9:30pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers v #13 Penn State, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Michigan vs PSU/RU, noon, BTN
• #6 Wisconsin vs UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Indiana vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Illinois vs IU/NU, noon, BTN
• #2 Purdue vs IA/MN, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs UW/UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs M/PSU/RU, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• IL/IU/NU vs MSU/M/PSU/RU, 1pm, CBS
• PU/IA/MN vs tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL, 3:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• IL/IU/NU/MSU/M/PSU/RU vs PU/IA/MN/tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL, 3:30pm, CBS