2020 NFL Draft/Offseason thread

[FearlessF]

more similar than not

[OrangeAfroMan]

Most NFL stars were CFB stars, and most CFB stars are NFL stars, it seems to me, if injuries are eliminated.

The first part is pretty/mostly true.  The second part is extremely false.

[Cincydawg]

Extremely false, as in it almost never happens that a CFB star becomes an NFL star?

Huh.  I guess I should pay more attention.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Quick n dirty:
I'll go back to 2015, because the more recent guys, we can't tell if they're good or not.  These are 1st-teamers, so I'm judging by 1,000 yard seasons or top 5-/10 at their position.  Looking at the first team All-American skill position players:
2015
QB - Watson - GOOD in NFL
RB - Fournette - I say very underwhelming, but whatever
RB - Henry - GOOD
WR - Coleman - nope
WR - Doctson - nope
.
2014
QB - Mariota - GOOD, but has regressed and hasn't won anything
RB - Coleman - nope
RB - Gordon - he's been fine, one 1,000 yd season, basic ypc averages, not a top 20 RB
WR - Cooper - GOOD
WR - Higgins - nope
.
2013
QB - Winston - nope
RB - Carey - nope
RB - Williams - nope
WR - Cooks - GOOD
WR - Evans - GOOD
.
2012
QB - Manziel - nope
RB - Ball - nope
RB - Barner - nope
WR - Lee - nope
WR - Williams - nope
.
2011
QB - Griffin - nope
RB - Ball - still nope
RB - Richardson - nope
WR - Blackmon - nope
WR - Broyles - nope
WR - Woods - GOOD - has improved
.
Yes, RBs and WRs who get 700 yds per season are useful and they're making a career.  But for every one of those who are considered a "nope" here, there's another "nope" that didn't contribute anything.  I don't know how many are injuries, but no, most good college players definitely do not become good NFL players. 

[OrangeAfroMan]

Extremely false, as in it almost never happens that a CFB star becomes an NFL star?

Huh.  I guess I should pay more attention.

I think you're confusing your words.  You could specify any population and MOST of them aren't going on to become NFL stars.  You could pick a position group at a helmet school, and MOST of those players aren't becoming stars in the NFL. 
.
See above.

[Cincydawg]

That is not what I'd consider "extremely false", and of course you only list skill player positions.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Let's call NFL stars Group A.
Let's call college stars Group B.
.
Most of group A used to be Group B. (probably by a slight margin)
Some of Group B become Group A, but not most.  Nowhere near most.
.
Group B will always be bigger than Group A, for 2 reasons:
1 - Group B turns over every 4 years
2 - Group A is harder to achieve

[OrangeAfroMan]

That is not what I'd consider "extremely false", and of course you only list skill player positions.

I posted the skill position players because I'm not going to even attempt grading every DT and Guard on his quality of play.  I acknowledged it was a quick n dirty study, jeez.
Love this board - 9 times out of 10, the person doing the legwork gets his legwork criticized.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Let's call NFL stars Group A.
Let's call college stars Group B.
.
Most of group A used to be Group B.
Some of Group B become Group A, but not most.  Nowhere near most.
.
Group B will always be bigger than Group A, for 2 reasons:
1 - Group B turns over every 4 years
2 - Group A is harder to achieve

See bold.  This is what you're having trouble with.  I'm not sure if you're misspeaking or just don't understand it.

[Cincydawg]

Looks to me like about half the AAs do pretty well at the next level, and maybe some of the others had injuries.

I think of the term "extremely rare" as meaning something like less than 1%.  It is equivocal.

But it probably doesn't mean half, or 30% even.

Hitting on a number of roulette is "rare" and twice in a row would be "extremely rare", so me.

Anyway, I'd guess these NFL scouts know more about this than I do.  Maybe some here could help them out though.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Who used the phrase "extremely rare"?
.
You used the word "most", to describe a situation which is decidedly "not most" - thus the "extremely wrong" moniker I gave it. 
"Most" is the opposite of "not most", so it's diametrically wrong.  Total.  Extremely.
.
And 7 out of 26 isn't "about half".  Even if you include Gordon and Fournette, 9/26 isn't about half, either.

[Cincydawg]

I don't think my overview is extremely wrong.  I somehow confused that with extremely rare.  That was my mistake.

I don't follow the NFL much at all, so my opinions on this are very uneducated and general.  I glanced at the first couple years you summarized and it looks to me like about half.  Anyway, it's not worth parsing language, I agree that quite a few AAs in college in skill positions don't do very well at the pro level.

My guess is the folks on defense and in the lines might have better luck.

[OrangeAfroMan]

I don't follow the NFL at all.  I had to look up how they've done, because I had no clue.  
Why would you assume defense and linemen would have better luck?  

[Cincydawg]

It's a guess, and I checked a couple of those WRs who didn't pan out in the NFL and they both had injuries.

I know the UGA defensive players who were highly regarded have done pretty well in the NFL.