#74 Colorado Buffaloes |
#10 in Pac 12 |
Coaches have come and gone since the glory days of Colorado football in the late 80s through the 90s, but the one consistent is that the team goes as the defense goes. The offense has not ranked in the top 40 of the SP+ in 17 years, which is nearly impossible to do for a power conference team. The Buffaloes lone winning season since 2005, came in 2016, on the backs of a top 25 defense. Last year, they were outside the top 100 in SP+. If the defensive youth movement from 2019 pays off, that could improve dramatically. Colorado returns 9 defensive starters, over 60% of their production, and yet still are projected to be just #97 in the defensive SP+. Linebacker Nate Landman (who is perfectly named for a state rich in mineral production) is a stud, but there are issues all around him. The secondary allowed over 8.5 ypa, roughly 1.5 ypa more than the prior season, and 15th most nationally. The defensive line was decent at getting after the quarterback, particularly Mustafa Johnson, but was weak up the middle, and did nearly nothing against the run. Antonio Alfano has a lot of obstacles to clear, and can’t seem to get out of his own way, but could be a game changer. The sophomore, who was the highest rated member of Alabama’s 2019 recruiting class, he apparently just stopped showing up, transferred to Colorado, had his waiver denied, and then got suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. The chances that (1) he appeal is granted; (2) his suspension is lifted; and (3) he stays out of his own way long enough to not make another mistake, seems slim. But Colorado desperately needs him. I think it’s fairly telling that none of the assistants that Mel Tucker took with him to Michigan State were on that side of the ball. Massive improvement is needed because the offense could be really ugly, particularly the passing game. Fortunately the one thing Colorado does have is a deep stable of running backs. While none of them really stand out, they do have a strong rotation. Alex Fontenot is the workhorse, who averaged 4.72 ypc, tallying 874 yards. Jaren Mangham is a guy behind him, who I really like to break out. I was surprised he wasn’t more productive last year, running for 441 yards, but on just 4.12 ypc. They also add true freshman Ashaad Clayon from New Orleans, the #17 RB in the nation, #171 overall, and easily the Buffaloes highest rated recruit. He’s got a 6’0”, 200 pound frame that looks ready to contribute from day one. It’s tough to say just how new offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini (promoted from receivers coach) will call plays, something he hasn’t done outside of the JUCO level. But considering the options he has at tailback, compared to a passing game starting from scratch, may force his hand. Steven Montez took every meaningful snap for the Buffaloes, going back to 2016, leaving Bolder second in school history in completions, attempts, and yards. For all of the other inconsistencies in the program, have basically had just two quarterbacks over the past seven years. With presumed incumbent Blake Stenstrom entering the transfer portal, and third stringer Sam Noyer graduating, the spot looks even dicier. There is junior Tyler Lytle, who has attempted 5 career passes, and true freshman Brendon Lewis, who was Colorado’s highest rated early enrolee. He is an elite athlete, but as far as a passer goes, doesn’t look like a Power Five guy starter yet. Losing spring ball hurts him, but maybe adding a running threat under center helps, considering who they have to throw to. Both starting receivers graduated, including Laviska Shenault, who had 673 yards, despite missing two games.
| KEY PLAYERS |
RB | Alex Fontenot, Senior |
WR | K.D. Nixon, Senior |
TE | Brady Russell, Senior |
| . |
DE | Mustafa Johnson, Senior |
LB | Nate Landman, Senior |
S | Derrion Rakestraw, Senior |
#73 NC State Wolfpack |
#12 in ACC |
I certainly didn’t expect Mack Brown to pass Dave Doeren in the in-state ACC pecking order, and certainly not in his first season, but here we are following a disastrous 2019, that saw the Wolfpack close the season with six consecutive losses, their longest losing streak since 2013, and going 1-8 on the season against Power Five teams. The problems started with the offense, and specifically the passing game, or lack thereof. NC State rotated through three different starting quarterbacks, each playing in at least half of the team’s games, none of which played effectively. Matt McKay, who started the first five games of the season, and was actually the most effective of the three, although he never got the job back fully, transferred to FCS Montana State. That leaves sophomore Devin Leary, who got the most reps, and is the presumed starter, and Florida State transfer Bailey Hockman, who was miserable in the 6 games he played in last year. I would expect either Ty Evans, who redshirted last year, and/or incoming freshman Ben Finley, younger brother of former starter Ryan Finley, to pass Hockman, if not both. The three starters last year combined to complete just 52% of their passes for 5.9 ypa, and the lowest passing efficiency in the ACC. Yes, lower than a Georgia Tech team trying to run a pro style offense with triple option personnel. Granted they weren’t aided by a truly awful group of receivers, such that I wouldn’t only not be surprised to see true freshman Porter Rooks come right in and immediately be the best of the group, I would expect it. Not to leave the running backs out, Ricky Person Jr., who looked great in 2018 as a freshman, seemed primed for a breakout sophomore campaign, and instead averaged 3.8 ypc, and wound up finishing the season third on the depth chart. He had a lingering ankle injury, so the optimist could say that if he’s fully healthy, and regains his 2018 form, and is your third best running back, that’s a really strong group. But overall, offensively, things were so bad, that after promoting Desmond Kitchings and George McDonald to replace Eliah Drinkwitz as offensive coordinator for 2019, Doeren already replaced them after one year with Tim Beck, whose star had fallen since his time in Columbus. Beck had been demoted from offensive coordinator to quarterbacks coach in Austin at the end of last season. The defense has plenty of talent, it just has to stay healthy. They have three likely future NFL draftees on the line, and yet averaged a fairly middling 2.9 sacks per game. The hope is that the new hire of Charley Wiles, after spending the past 24 seasons as Virginia Tech’s defensive line coach, is supposed to change that. The “additions” in the secondary comes not in the form of new blood, but renewed blood, after having three starters suffer season ending injuries last year. None of the three were expected back for spring ball, so while the chance to develop more depth behind them is lost, they didn’t miss an opportunity to work back into game shape. The injury depleted group last year collapsed, allowing opponents to complete over 64% of their passes, second worst in the ACC, and tallying just 4 interceptions, tied for the least in the country. The upside is that both the starting kicker and punter return after All-ACC sophomore campaigns.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Devin Leary, Sophomore |
TE | Cary Angeline, Senior |
K | Christopher Dunn, Junior |
| . |
LB | Louis Acceus, Senior |
CB | Chris Ingram, Senior |
P | Treton Gill, Junior |